Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 20 Predictions

Bath Rugby vs London Irish

With Saracens and Northampton ahead of them in the table, this is a game that Bath will be targeting for five points. To be honest, they have the easiest run in of all the sides and it’s entirely feasible that they will remain unbeaten until the end of the season. The big selection news once again is that Sam Burgess continues on the blindside flank, after quietly impressing there against Newcastle in the last round. Elsewhere, Kyle Eastmond returns to the midfield, relegating the unlucky Ollie Devoto to the bench. London Irish are all but on holiday already, and give a rare start to Kiwi Chris Noakes at fly-half.

If Bath want a home semi-final, this needs to be a regulation five-pointer. Bath by 18.

Sale Sharks vs Harlequins

Sale sit in seventh, with an outside chance of making the top six and claiming an automatic European spot, but a more likely scenario would be them finishing where they are right now. It would usually mean a crack at the Champions Cup play-offs, but with Gloucester in the final of the Challenge Cup, that could be scuppered. They will be huge Edinburgh fans on that day, but in the meantime it will focus them even more on chasing that slim chance of making the top six. They face a Harlequins side who sit five points behind them in eighth this week, and who have been in thoroughly indifferent form since the turn of the year, winning just two of their last six games in the league. Sale’s win at the Stoop in November was their first one over Quins since 2009; Harlequins have been victorious on their last two visits to the North West.

Sale should break that trend this weekend – they’ve been very tough to beat at home this season. Sale by 10.

Gloucester Rugby vs Newcastle Falcons

Gloucester have no Premiership wins in their last four games, but that won’t bother them too much. The European Rugby Challenge Cup final, which they contest next weekend against Edinburgh, offers them an unlikely shot at Champions Cup rugby next season; that will be their focus for now. With that in mind they have rotated their squad – Billy Burns and Dan Robson get starts in the half-backs, while Greig Laidlaw and James Hook, along with front-rowers John Afoa and Richard Hibbard, are given rests on the bench. Newcastle arrive with little left to play for this season other than pride, but in the form of one of the most lethal finishers in the league – Sinoti Sinoti – they have a man that can instil plenty of it.

A loss at home a week before a final is not what any side needs, so despite much rotation, Gloucester should win here. Gloucester by 3.

Leicester Tigers vs London Welsh

The Tigers’ miserable defeat away at Saracens shows, really, how far from being a top four team they are this season. That they are hanging on in there is down to little more than such unquantifiable qualities as ‘doggedness’ and ‘belief’. Against London Welsh, however, they simply have to show more. At home against the bottom side in the league – a side that has conceded an average of 6.6 tries per game – five points is the very bare minimum; a more flowing performance, and some actual quality tries to boot, is necessary. Intriguingly, Mat Tait switches to 13, his original position but one in which he has rarely been used by the Tigers.

The Tigers will win but whether they can actually produce the kind of performance that will convince us they are genuine title contenders, is highly questionable. Leicester by 25.

Northampton Saints vs Saracens

In terms of table position, this is the game of the weekend – and given respective form, Saints might be regretting moving it to the stadiummk. The more neutral venue stands Saracens on a more even keel, and they appear to be hitting peak form at the perfect time – despite their narrow loss to Clermont in the Champions Cup. They have four straight wins in the league and after they saw the way the Saints capitulated against Exeter, a week on from their hammering at the hands of Clermont, they will know the hosts are there for the taking. One thing working against the visitors could be fatigue – they have had a series of huge games without a week off. Saints, however, have won four of the last five fixtures between these two, and will be desperate to turn their recent slump around.

There is an inescapable feeling that Sarries are timing their run to perfection. Win against the Saints, and they become favourites for the title. Saracens by 2.

Wasps vs Exeter Chiefs

If Saints vs Sarries is the game of the weekend in terms of importance, this could be the one in terms of entertainment. Both sides have produced attacking rugby of the highest quality this season, and there is so much young, English talent on show. Elliot Daly vs Jack Nowell is a box office battle, while Henry Slade will dictate things from 10 for the Chiefs and Christian Wade will be out for tries for Wasps. In terms of the league, it is a vital game. Wasps are five points behind Exeter, so a win for the Chiefs would all but end the home side’s play-off hopes, and would have them very nervously looking over their shoulder at Sale behind them. Win, however, and Wasps are right in the hunt again. It will make for a fascinating and, hopefully, thrilling game.

It will be insatiably close, so home advantage could swing it. Wasps by 2.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images