The odds are against England retaining the Six Nations title after their defeat at Murrayfield, and they’ll need some help from Scotland ironically.
Here is the Six Nations table as it stands:
| Position | Team | P | W | D | L | Points diff | Try BP | Losing BP | Points |
| 1 | IRELAND | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | ENGLAND | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | SCOTLAND | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | WALES | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | FRANCE | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | ITALY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ireland sits five points clear of England, by virtue of their unbeaten run and the bonus point win over Wales – England failed to score four tries against Wales, despite scoring two in the first 20 minutes, and they could live to regret that.
That means that whatever happens in Dublin, England needs to beat France and score four tries in the process. Already this seems unlikely given the stats so far: excluding the Italy game, England has scored three tries in two matches (2 versus Wales, 1 versus Scotland), and France has conceded 4 in their three matches so far, which is the fewest of any nation. But let’s say England does conjure some attacking devil and put France to the sword, they will still need Scotland to do them a favour.
If the Scots win in Dublin, a title win for England is back on obviously, and it will likely come down to the final match at Twickenham. Ireland would be on 14 or 15 points, England on 14 and Scotland on 13 with Italy to play on the final weekend. A draw at Twickenham would probably gift the trophy to Scotland, and only a narrow win for England would give Scotland a chance to overhaul the points difference.
If Ireland beats Scotland but can not score four tries, they would be on 18 points, with England on 14 thanks to that unlikely BP win in Paris – but even then, they would need to score another four tries against the Irish, and make sure they don’t pick up a losing BP themselves.
If Ireland beats Scotland and scores four tries in the process, they would be on 19 points, with England only able to reach 14 – so then they need a huge bonus point win to haul in the points difference. Also unlikely.
So England’s fate is in Scottish hands, whose performance against England will give English fans some hope – although their away record is poor. There’s also some irony in the fact that Ryan Wilson has been cited for making contact with the eye area of Nathan Hughes, and will probably be banned, just when England needs him most!
Ryan Wilson and Nathan Hughes grappling on the floor.
Contact with the eye area by Wilson? pic.twitter.com/IZqcRcrK5F
— rugby (@theblitzdefence) February 25, 2018
What do you think? Can England still win the title?
No. predicted before the start of this years 6 nations that England and France would be fighting for 3rd and 4th spot. France need a big game at home and because of this see France winning this fixture by 8 points with neither side gaining a try bonus point. The game against Ireland is on Paddies day and this along with wanting to ‘do’ England will see Ireland winning this last match by 10 points.
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Give me two high quality, consistent performances to finish with and i’ll be happy.
If that leads to a 6N’s win, then fine. If not, I’ll not be heartbroken. For me, performance over the final two games is of paramount importance.
We simply have to play better.
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Totally agree with Steve H. We need to get a bit/a lot of pride back and two good/excellent performances are essential.
We all know that if England get it right they can be devastating and clinical.
Bit of pride in the shirt please, then it’s time to phase out the players who have not only had their time but won’t have a lot to offer at the WC.
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What a crock of absolute shit.
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Can you qualify that statement so i can respond?
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Does anyone else thinks that a ban for wilson would be EPIC SHIT?? he barely grabs hes eyes (more the side of it than the eye it self) and is defending himself against a bigger man who is choking him (not hardly though) and has him on the floor. for me is more a kinda automatic defensive effort than a meditated cheap shot.
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Intent is irrelevant.Hand contact around the eyes is a complete no-no and as such is governed by strict liability.There is no benefit of the doubt and only mitigation can be offered.Draconian maybe, but everyone knows the consequences.
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England have no chance of winning the championship now, in my opinion, and on the form they’ve shown in the tourney so far they don’t deserve to either.
Ireland were far more clinical against Italy than England were.
England just scraped past Wales and even that involved a huge amount of good fortune.
Scotland have no chance of beating Ireland in Dublin next week. As always, they found a few higher gears for England, but I don’t believe they have another performance like that in them. Ireland at home, with their tails up and chasing a grand slam? Just a case of how many Ireland win by.
England away to France will be interesting. I hadn’t realised how miserly the French defence had been. England haven’t exactly been scoring tries for fun and getting four against this lot is a tall order. Also, Camara-Lauret-Tauleigne is a nice back row – England will have to completely transform the way theirs has been performing, and their breakdown work overall, to have any success here. I reckon England will win, if only through bounce-back passion and anger, but by a slim margin and no bonus point, not a chance of that.
Then to Paddy’s Day at Twickenham. Technically a home game for England, but if you consider the number of Irish people in south-west London who will be using this fixture as an excuse to get battered and go nuts cheering on their team at Twickers, I think we may have a vociferous sea of green in the stadium, and let’s face it they bring a lot more passion than the usual home crowd. As for the rugby itself, Ireland have better balance, more cohesion as a team, and are just playing more effective rugby at the moment. In a way, the pressure will be off by this point, with the championship in the bag, so they can go all out to try and win the grand slam. Despite all that, I wouldn’t be surprised if England managed to pull off a narrow party-pooping win here, but it would be a hollow victory with the championship already decided.
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Whilst there is still the possibility of England winning the tournament, there is also the distinct possibility we could finish fifth if the players don’t pull their collective fingers out of their arses and play like they know they can.
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I’m hoping that we try a different midfield combo against France. JJ has been off his usual form and T’eo deserves more time. Have Ford and JJ on the bench and start Farrell, T’eo and Nowell at 10, 12 & 13. If Daly is fit I would also have him May and Watson starting with Brown on the bench.
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Farrell-Te’o-Nowell midfield gets my vote!!
On all the England team/squad announcements, Nowell seems to be listed under “inside backs”, so maybe this is something that is being considered…
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That sounds awful to me. Farrell, aside from his defence, is the best 12 we’ve got. Sort out the backrow balance, get some go forward, hit rucks hard, done. Nowell has proven himself to be a great wing but he’s not a 13. Daly? Just get him on the pitch. He’s just a ridiculously good player. England are still just a damn good team that need a kick up the arse.
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England could end up with only 3, maybe even 2 wins if they are not careful here. The Championship should still be all to play for. I fancy France to give them a tough game and all but end their hopes but Scotland Vs Ireland remains a close call.
I just want to point out the utter bullsh*ttery behind Wilson being cited. Being cited for an eye gouge when he is nearer his ear than his eye, trying to push his face away rather than gouge, and Hugh’s is pinning him down by his neck. It is a disgusting decision to not cite Hugh’s yet cite Wilson. A corrupt pro-English panel no doubt.
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I agree with Dazza in that i’d like to see a different backs combo but I’d keep JJ and have Teo at 12, Farrell 10. I feel JJ has had a lot of unwarranted criticism for England recently in terms of him being off the pace. His pace and dancing feet are only as good as the space he is put into and England haven’t really been creating the space/gaps he thrives on. I’d like to see Nowell in for May, or Watson to full back and Nowell and May both in.
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JJ was actually alright at the weekend, given the slow and backward ball he was getting he still tried to break through/evade the scottish defence. Jones in comparison was thriving off good quick ball, a clear contrast to last years fixture when the situations were reversed.
For me, May looks too under-powered to assist with the nitty gritty breakdown work, and he has also been caught out a couple of times in defence. I would start Nowell over him in the next fixture; his work rate around the park is incredible, and carries well through traffic. Keep Brown or, if he recovers in time (although v. unlikely) I would like to see Watson at FB with Daly and Nowell on the wings.
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Usually a big support of Joseph and appreciate the mitigation that he can only do so much with shit/no ball. But against Scotland, he was uncharacteristically poor in defence – an area I always understood to be one of his key strengths. The one that sticks in my memory is the (unnecessary in my view) gamble he took in rushing up in the build-up to Jones’s first try – although in fairness that was an outrageous pass by Russell!
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I agree with you on the sub-par defensive performance, was more pointing out the mitigating circumstances, though I’m sure these could be made for other players.
It has seemed like a tactic employed by England this 6N. JJ, along with Farrell, have been shooting out of the line to cut off options out wide, perhaps in response to the Italy game in which Italy scored twice out wide with relative ease. It does work at times but perhaps JJ shouldve held off and drifted prior to the Jones break but this could have lead to a break inside. Russel did throw a very good pass nonetheless.
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In other news, Mike Haley has agreed to join Munster, ending any chances of him donning the England jersey.
I hope this one doesn’t come back to haunt us.
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Do you know why Haley is available for ireland having played for the saxons? Bit confused by this
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Apparently it’s because he played against South Africa A, which wasn’t their designated 2nd team at the time and so doesn’t count. Seems slightly dubious if it’s based on the opposition rather than the team you are playing for.
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Does anyone else believe the England Team need to change the back row and mid field completely and also a better hooker that England do have to move forward. This year’s 6 nations looks comparitable to the Team that took the field before the last World cup under the Lancaster era
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I would agree in part, namely the backrow. It seems England haven’t been able to develop, or bring through, as much fresh talent at flanker as maybe would be desired. Though there are players such as Underhill, the Curry’s and Mercer now starting to get involved, it seems WC 2019 will be too soon for most of them.
The midfield pre WC changed a lot, but players such as Barret and Burrell were Lancaster staples and, luckily, have not featured since. JJ was also involved but has since justified his continued involvement in the squad, with performances during the Australia tour standing out.
I would add that its very disappointing to see Wigglesworth rejoining the squad, when other seemingly worthy 9s are waiting in the wings. Like Goode, he never impressed me at international level and has reinforced this opinion the past 2 games.
The fact that the squad hasnt changed a huge amount isn’tt necessarily a bad thing, continuity and international experience are both beneficial. But one cant help but feel there is a sense of security creeping in with some of the players and their places.
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Bring back Slammin Sam Burgess! Back row and midfield quandaries solved at a stroke…
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Hahahah love this comment. He could swap roles with Lawes every ten minutes. I’d like to see Lawes cutting a few lines in the midfield…..
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I also agree in part. To be honest there are many factors we need to look at here. Firstly lets be frank, right now the World Rankings should be taken with a pinch of salt as South Africa & Australia are not in a great place, and France – well we all agree haven’t been the force they once were. So Englands improvement per say under EJs coupled with these teams declining can sugar coat the rankings in my view & maybe we just need to realise whilst ranked No 2, we are not leaps and bounds ahead of the likes of Scotland, Wales etc and any of the top six can beat each other ‘on their day’.
Secondly whilst England have a great winning margin under EJ, I think the majority will agree there has been a lot of close calls and often performances that have been disappointing against the lower tier sides who you would expect to win against.
Finally – hand that is dealt…..
EJ is a world class Manager, but he can only deal with the cards he has been dealt on many occasions injuries have forced his arm in a lot of circumstances. Personally if we had had a fully fit Tuilagi and Teo for more of EJs tenure I believe he may have moved away from the Ford/Farrell axis and we may have seen Daly or Slade with more of a run out at 13 or 12 depending on how EJ wanted to set the midfield up. Farrell locked in at 10.
The injuries have also affected the back row balance. Haskell has an excellent tour of Australia in 2016 but sure not long after he was out for a while. From memory EJ gave opportunities to T Harrison and Jack Clifford at some point but both failed to convince they were international level. As for Underhill and Simmonds both relatively still early onto the England scene and both showed promise in games they have started but both got injuries that have halted them getting a run of games (Underhill autumn tests, Simmonds six nations)….and as for Big Billy well we all know how he is missed.
Front row – Genge injuries and Marler and Sinckler whist have qualities just can’t seem to behave and so again he has had to re-think the choices…
Anyway long winded to get to the point but yes I’d like to see a few changes. Certainly Underhill to start, drop Lawes or move him to Lock and give Itoje a rest. Farrell at 10, Teo, JJ centre, Nowell wing. Give Jamie George a start as i think he is getting fed up of being a replacement!
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As Eddie has consistently said this is a journey to RWC.In my view we are at a tipping point.Win the next 2 and we are back on track.Lose the next 2 and we will go backwards significantly.These games are more important than those already played
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Teo for JJ. JJ has flattered to decieve for too long whereas with Teo at least you know what you’re going to get – the solid performance of a proven Lion rather than the disappearing acts of a magician!
Defenders of Teo claim he hasn’t been given the space to play. Well, at this level space is at a premium and is not always GIVEN its made or found by the player.
Like Ma’a Nonu for NZ, i’m sure Teo can improve on the finer skills of backplay as he gets the caps (it worked for the ABs who stuck with Nonu after committing some howlers early doors in his career) I didn’t see JJ in any of the three Lions tests and this ongoing dismissal of Gatland’s Lions – Sinkler, Teo and George – is now defying all logic.
Time also to find some specialist flankers. Where have the Currys, Mercers and even the Underhills gone? They need urgent game time now before the WC. Phasing out of some of the old guard eg. Cole would be no bad thing either if done in a deliberately phased approach with the replacement in mind.
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Meant “defenders of JJ” not “defenders of Teo”.
Apologies.
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