At time of creation Rugby World Cup 2019 has four places to fill with a possible 15 nations left to take these.

I was shocked and also pleased about the emerging nation of Georgia taking an automatic qualifying berth for Rugby World Cup 2019 – shocked as it meant both Samoa and Tonga would need to qualify for 2019, something that didn’t need to happen for 2015 and happy because it means that the popularity of our game is increasing globally which is great news for the sport.

For previous tournaments the brutish Georgians have normally finished as Europe A by winning the Six Nations B tournament: The Rugby Europe Championship (either they or Romania).

Georgia’s qualification puts the Europe A berth in the hands of the runners up of this tournament normally a shoo in for Romania, or so you would think until they played Spain in Madrid on February 18th where Los Leones upset The Mighty Oaks 22-10. Currently Spain lie third trailing Romania by one point, but the remaining fixtures puts Spain firmly in the driving seat to take Europe A, which would deliver their first appearance in the World Cup since 1999. This in turn would place Romania in a Europe playoff with 2007 finalists Portugal, the winner of which plays Samoa for a place in the World Cup, whilst the loser joins Canada in the Repechage tournament for the final tournament place.

Still with me?

The Oceanic (Pacific Islands) qualifiers are Fiji and Tonga which puts Samoa in the playoff position against Romania, normally I would put money on Samoa to win this one but recent financial troubles could put them on unsure footing against Romania, on their day a decent side.

Back to the Repechage this is a four team tournament, so far we have Canada joined with Spain, Romania, Portugal or Samoa, and the third spot will be taken by the Runner up from the African Cup.

The teams in the final round are Namibia, Kenya, Morocco, Tunisia, Zimbabwe and Uganda, where the winner qualifies as Africa 1, and the runner up goes into the Repechage.

Those of us in the know wouldn’t bet against Namibia, ever present in every tournament since 1999 replacing Cote D’Ivore in 1995 and Zimbabwe in 1897 and 1991. This would suggest Zimbabwe have a certain pedigree but I would say having watched the 7s circuit and with previous years that Kenya will take the Africa repechage place having finished second in the Africa Cup in 2016 and 2017 – but they have won it in 2011 and 2013 so could they topple Namibia without the talismanic Jacques Burger?

Ok those of you still with me, I hope you are taking notes there is an exam at the end.

So now we are left with the final repechage place which will be decided between the mighty Tahiti from Oceania and the winners of the 2018 Asian Rugby Championship Hong Kong, South Korea or Malaysia. I think this will be won by Hong Kong from South Korea and Malaysia a distant 3rd and then Hong Kong will have too much for Tahiti in the play off.

So to the repechage how do I think this will play out?

I think Spain will qualify as Europe 1 as they have Belgium to play on Saturday (currently second bottom) and require a bonus point win to be sure, whilst needing Romania not to win – and they travel to Georgia and I simply don’t see them winning in Tiblisi.

Romania going into a playoff with Portugal will have far too many gears for the Portuguese to deal with. Now this leaves me with a tricky one but I feel Samoa will edge Romania in their playoff and qualify for the World Cup.

Based on the above, the repechage will be contested between Canada, Romania, Kenya and Hong Kong – which means one of the Rugby stalwarts Canada or Romania miss out, which is a crying shame as they both played in a thoroughly compelling game (which I attended) in Leicester at Rugby World Cup 2015, which Romania edged – and for that and that reason alone I think Romania qualify at Canada’s expense.

So in summary my World Cup looks like this:

Group A – Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Spain, Samoa.
Group B – New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Namibia, Romania.
Group C – England, France, Argentina, The USA, Tonga.
Group D – Australia, Wales, Georgia, Fiji, Uruguay.

So what does everyone else think, will Canada be the unlucky bridesmaid? Will Spain fluff their lines and let Romania through? Will a surprise team with the exception of Spain qualify for 2019?

By Dale Barwick