European Rugby returns this weekend, with the Challenge Cup kicking things off on Friday night. Here are our predictions for the quarter-finals of the Champions’ Cup little brother:
Gloucester Rugby vs Connacht Rugby
Gloucester’s passage to the knock-out stages was the definition of smooth sailing – six wins from six games, and five winning bonus points. It included away wins at Oyonnax and Brive in France, not the easiest places to win, regardless of the strength of line-up awaiting them. Connacht lost twice in the group stages, both times against their English opponents Exeter. The Irish side are locked in a battle for automatic qualification to next season’s Champions Cup, which they will likely view much more importantly than the Challenge Cup. Gloucester are just about in touch with the European hunt in the Premiership, but might view a bit of silverware as a more realistic goal.
Either way both sides will likely rest some players for the league challenges ahead. Both lost convincingly last weekend, but the home side are more likely to turn it around tomorrow night. Gloucester by 9.
Newport Gwent Dragons vs Cardiff Blues
Both of these sides face an uphill battle to make the top seven in the PRO12, so might actually place a bit of importance on the knockout stages of this competition (although without qualification for the Champions Cup as a carrot, they may still decide to shun it). The Dragons are in decent form, having won their last two in the league including an impressive result at home to Ulster. Cardiff, prior to last weekend’s capitulation to Ulster, had also strung a few good results together, again showing a mini reversal in fortunes under their interim coaching team, just as they did last year.
It’s a tough game to call, with both sides having lost only once in the group stages. Cardiff won at Rodney Parade in January, which will give them confidence, and the Dragons’ home form has actually been pretty poor this season. Cardiff by 3.
Exeter Chiefs vs Newcastle Falcons
Exeter are embroiled in the Premiership play-off scrap, so will likely take this opportunity to rest their more front line players that have seen a lot of action this season. Newcastle, meanwhile, have nothing left to play for in the league and will as a result fancy a tilt at some silverware. Exeter beat the Falcons by 29 at Sandy Park as recently as February, but given the mitigating circumstances, this game should be a lot closer than that.
That said, it is still difficult to see anything other than a home victory, and a long old bus journey home for Newcastle. Exeter by 5.
London Irish vs Edinburgh Rugby
Irish, like the Falcons, are out of the hunt for European qualification in the Premiership and will as a result be keen to make the most of a rare appearance in the knockout stages of a cup competition. Conversely, Edinburgh are right in the mix for Champions Cup qualification in the PRO12 so will likely be dedicating most of their front line resources to that fight. They have been in good form since the turn of the year, but sending a depleted side all the way down to Reading to face a fired up Exiles outfit is not likely to yield positive results.
A comfortable home win looms. London Irish by 15.
How do you see the weekend going?
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
4 replies on “European Rugby Challenge Cup 2014/2015: Quarter-Final Predictions”
Think Cardiff could slip up. Yes we won at RP in Jan but that was the weekend after Newport won in Cardiff. Patch and Allen are out so missing some guile in the backs. Home crowd could see Newport sneak this
(PS. If anyone in Wales saw you using Cardiff for one and Dragons for the other they’d string you up! 🙂 ).
Cardiff and Newport are actually separate teams to Blues and Dragons, aren’t they? I think people have the right to be miffed!
It’s a hornets nest Geat. Yes, technically, there are still Cardiff RFC and Newport RFC. Some would say that both those teams are shadows of what they would be if there were no Blues/Dragons.
There is also a growing body (who I agree with) who say that we tried regional (and I can see the arguments that we didn’t try in a way people liked i.e. we have regions crossed with super clubs) and it’s not working i.e. most who are not Cardiff fans will “never be a blue” (which is what they sing in Ponty), it’s too far away from the “rugby heartlands” (10 miles), the “valley people” are disenfranchised (that one gets me riled as I’m from the valleys but left the “Cardiff is a million miles away” mentality years ago), etc.
So we (us Cardiff fans) want to say sod it, let’s call them Cardiff and see if we can drum up enough support from the 300,000 or so citizens we have rather than this middle ground where we turn off some Cardiff fans and nearly all of the non-Cardiff fans in our region.
Wales can barely afford 4 pro teams so whatever we end up with there will be 4 teams max and it would be insanity if they did not leverage the Llanelli/Swansea/Cardiff/Newport history, brands, population centres and stadiums.
I don’t think Edinburgh will take this challenge lightly. I’d expect to see a strong side sent down. An impressive win at scarlets last week says all that needs to be said I reckon
Edinburgh by 5