After a whirlwind one week break, European Rugby returns again this weekend, with the Challenge Cup kicking things off on Friday night. Here are our predictions for the semi-finals of the Champions Cup’s little brother:
Edinburgh Rugby vs Newport Gwent Dragons
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
These two sides sit next to each other in the PRO12 table, although only Edinburgh – six points better off – are really still fighting for a Champions Cup qualification spot for next season. That split focus might work in the Dragons’ favour, but recent history tells a different story. Edinburgh have won the last four meetings between these two sides, including three games at Murrayfield. Looking at the stats from this tournament, it should make for an intriguing battle – the Dragons have been the most potent attacking side, with 34 tries to their name, but Edinburgh possess the highest tackle percentage rate – 90% – of any side. The Scottish side were, however, hammered by Munster in their most recent game, while the Dragons pulled off an incredible comeback to defeat champions Leinster – morale will be firmly up amongst the Welsh side.
The Dragons have the better form but semi-final rugby tends to come down to small margins, and home advantage will be a huge factor here. Edinburgh by 3.
Gloucester Rugby vs Exeter Chiefs
Kingsholm, Gloucester
Gloucester have more motivation than any other side left in the tournament to win the Challenge Cup. A win for them would see them enter the Champions Cup qualifier at the end of the season – Exeter should qualify through the league anyway, and both PRO12 sides have to qualify through their league. The Cherry and Whites will put everything into this game, but do not discount Exeter. They may well make some changes but a European trophy would be another step along the road to becoming one of the foremost clubs in England – a road that started with their promotion and has encompassed an LV= Cup win last season. That taste of silverware has left them hungry for more. Gloucester’s only win since February came in the quarter final against Connacht, while conversely Exeter have just one loss in their last seven games in all competitions. Strangely, this fixture has favoured the away side in recent occasions, the last four encounters between the teams going to the visiting team on the day.
After their swotting aside of Northampton last weekend, confidence will be high in the Exeter camp, and despite the increased importance of this fixture for Gloucester, I think it’ll be another away win. Exeter by 6.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images