Edinburgh vs Zebre
First up we have Edinburgh hosting Zebre. Edinburgh are riding high after last weekend’s result against the Dragons in the Challenge Cup, which sees them becoming the first Scottish side to reach a European cup final. And well deserved it was too. They face a Zebre side with very little going for them at the moment and who’ve yet to record an away victory this season. Given that irrespective of where Zebre or Treviso finish in the table relative to the other teams, one of them will be going on to the European Rugby Championship Cup next season then there is still something for the visitors to play for. There is a mathematical possibility that they will finish above Treviso and thus qualify for the top tier of European rugby, which is a big incentive for them. Unfortunately for them, this Edinburgh team looks too strong, and will carry last weekend’s momentum forward. Zebre’s only hope will be that they rested last weekend, and that Edinburgh might be tired from their match, but that’s a very slim hope indeed.
Prediction: Edinburgh by 25
Ulster vs Leinster
Next up is the new up and comer of the Irish derbies, Ulster vs Leinster. Sure, historically the Irish derby was Munster vs Leinster, but there’s very little love lost between these two teams, and once again it should prove to be an absorbing affair. Ulster are one of the form sides in this competition and are undefeated at home this season. Leinster, their heroics in Marseille last weekend notwithstanding, have had a very bumpy season. For the first time in a long time it’s looking like they might not make a play-off spot as we come into the business end of the season. Last weekend we saw them play as the Leinster of old, however, and that might cause the hosts to worry a bit. However, with such a short turnaround between games for the visitors, and last weekend’s game itself going into extra time, I think that Leinster will struggle to maintain the intensity required to come away with a win in Belfast. Fair warning to Ulster fans though, the last team to win here were Leinster, in Round 21 of last year’s competition, so a victory is well within their capabilities, especially in a must-win clash such as this one.
Prediction: Ulster by 5
Connacht vs Glasgow
This match will be interesting. Glasgow sit top of the table at the moment, and are on track to nail a home semi-final at the end of the season. They’ve managed bonus point results in all three of their last matches, even in that draw away to Leinster. Their recent form on the road hasn’t been great however (four losses and that draw) and that will give the Galway faithful some hope. Connacht’s fantastic form in the first half of the season has come undone a bit though, and they’ve lost their last three Pro12 matches. Of Glasgow’s remaining fixtures, this one is arguably the easiest. With an away match to Ospreys (currently fourth in the table) and Ulster (currently second) looming, they can’t afford to let any league points slip away at this late stage.
Prediction: Glasgow by 12
Cardiff Blues vs Ospreys
All eyes in Wales turn to Cardiff and the Millennium Stadium this weekend as another Judgment day is upon us. We open with Cardiff ‘hosting’ the Ospreys, the only Welsh side in the league with a chance of taking this year’s title. History favours the Ospreys, who’ve won their last seven encounters with the Blues, and form favours them this weekend too – they are undefeated since Round 15. Meanwhile the Blues have recorded just two wins in their last seven matches and are sitting down at the lower end of the table ahead of our traditional table-propers, the Italians. They’ll be getting support from the unlikeliest of corners as everyone in Leinster will be cheering them on, hoping they’ll manage to cause an upset, but that seems very unlikely.
Prediction: Ospreys by 15
Munster vs Benetton Treviso
We interrupt Judgment Day to cast an eye west, where we see Munster take on Treviso. Now in any two horse race there is always the possibility of an upset, but it would take a seismic shift of probabilities for our Italian visitors to come away from Cork with a win here. Treviso’s season has been truly awful and with just three wins and a draw all year, this match is very much Munster’s to lose. With very little separating Munster from fellow Irish rivals Ulster in the league table, and given that both sides square off in Belfast next weekend, this is a game where Munster must secure the bonus, so I’m expecting a big score line in this match.
Prediction: Munster by 31
Newport Gwent Dragons vs Llanelli Scarlets
Once again we head back to Cardiff, for the final match of Judgment Day (and the weekend as a whole), with Dragons ‘hosting’ the Scarlets. This one is tricky since the Dragons’ recent run of form in the Pro12 has been promising, toppling Ulster, Treviso, and Leinster, but then prior to that going down against Zebre, of all teams. Last weekend’s loss in Europe to Edinburgh will have hurt, no doubt, but should the Dragons need inspiration, they need look no further than their historic double victory over reigning champs Leinster this season. The Scarlets have a better history with this fixture overall than their opponents, having only lost to them once in their last 13 encounters. I think this weekend’s upset will be here though, and I’m backing the Dragons to take the win.
Prediction: Dragons by 1
By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
One reply on “Guinness PRO12 2014/2015 Predictions: Round 20”
Strangely the results this weekend for the Welsh regions are a bit secondary. It’s a bit of a watershed day – the judgement day crowd will probably be over 50K, the previous record was ~37K. Why does this matter? Because this is the first one under the new participation agreement between PRW (Pro Rugby Wales) and the WRU. What’s new about it? Well, in essence, it’s no longer the WRU telling the clubs to get bent, they’re in charge, we’re going to bankrupt you, we’re going to have as many autumn internationals as we want, etc. It’s now a friendly agreement with mutual respect and trust. And it looks like the first fruit of that will be a record crowd because now everyone is friends there is advertising, excitement, sponsors, publicity, etc. This could be a hugely important moment for us, when we finally turn the corner and start building our clubs.
The other change, and hence my use of the word clubs, is the redefinition of what a “region” is. PRW used to be called “Regional Rugby Wales” but there has been a significant change of emphasis. The clubs now want to be recognised as that – clubs. They are not regional representation entities – you don’t play for a semi/am club and then get capped by your region. They are not meant to represent fans across the region.
Cardiff et al are clubs. They also have “regional responsibilty” for rugby development, so the concept of the regions will remain but the emphasis has shifted – Cardiff Blues are the pro club for the Cardiff Blues region. I like this, I like this a lot. It stops a lot of the muck that gets flung around (yes, Cardiff doesn’t “represent” you in Abercwmboi if you don’t want it to – but it is not trying to. Support your local pro club or don’t. It is up to you) and gives the clubs themselves a clear identity to sell.
Overall this is the best I’ve felt about Welsh club rugby since we went down to 4 pro teams.