Guinness PRO12 2014/2015 Predictions: Round 21

Newport Gwent Dragons vs Edinburgh

First up we have a re-play of the recent European Challenge Cup Semi-final. The Dragons will be eager to make up for that loss this time round, whereas Edinburgh will be licking their wounds from the heartbreaking final loss to Gloucester. In Dragons’ favour they’ve had an extra week’s rest, but recent history between these sides has favours Edinburgh. Both sides have proved difficult to predict this season so this is tough to call. Edinburgh’s current away record swings it in their favour.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 3

Leinster vs Benetton Treviso

To say that the 2014/15 season hasn’t been great for Leinster would be an understatement of epic proportions. That loss to Ulster in Round 20 was the nail in the coffin for the defending champions’ chances of making it into a playoff spot. Despite being out of the running for any silverware this year, it’s not over yet for the men in blue. With Scarlets and Edinburgh breathing down their necks they need to garner six league points from their last two games in order to be guaranteed a place in Europe next year. Meanwhile Treviso are in a similar position, and will be desperate to stave off a challenge from fellow countrymen Zebre, in order to represent Italy at the top tier of European club rugby next season. Simply put, Leinster cannot afford to let any points slip here, so I’m backing the home team to get the full five points.

Prediction: Leinster by 30

?Ospreys vs Glasgow

?Fourth place in the league hosts first in what should be an exciting encounter. Ospreys are undefeated (including one draw) at home this season, and in fact the last team to beat them were Glasgow in Scotstoun. The Scots have a tough run into the end of the season, with Ospreys this weekend and Ulster next. A win in either match would guarantee them a home semi-final. History favours Glasgow, having triumphed over Ospreys in their last seven meetings, and they are a potent force away from home, but the Welshmen are always a tough team to face at the Liberty. With so much to play for for both sides, and it being so tight at the top in the league table, this game could easily go either way.

Prediction: Glasgow by 2

Ulster vs Munster

The second titanic match of this round will be Ulster hosting fellow Irish province, Munster. Ulster are the best home side this season, with 10 out of 10 wins thus far, and are one game away from a perfect home season. Ulster are playing for a coveted home semi-final, having already successfully bid for the final in controversial circumstances, but that’s a discussion for another time. Munster are the best team on the road this season, but history favours the home team. The reverse of this fixture earlier this season was decided by the narrowest of margins, and I suspect it’ll be similarly close here.

Prediction: Ulster by 3

Zebre vs Connacht

As mentioned earlier, Zebre actually have something to play for, with a coveted European spot potentially up for grabs, assuming Leinster don’t totally implode against Treviso. It’s a tough ask for them though; Connacht have yet to lose to Zebre (in nine clashes). Were Connacht playing anyone else, I’d be worried about their recent run of form, having lost four of their last five, but this is Zebre; a team that have won only three Pro12 matches all season. This game is Connacht’s to lose.

Prediction: Connacht by 12

Llanelli Scarlets vs Cardiff Blues

Lastly we have the final Welsh derby of the season. Scarlets haven’t lost two matches in a row at Parc y Scarlets since 2009. That record will most likely still stand until next season, as they face a Cardiff Blues side that have won only six matches all season. In the Blues’ favour however is that one of those six wins was a convincing win over Scarlets back in Round 10. I don’t see that happening here.?

Prediction: Scarlets by 15

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images