Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 19 Predictions

Glasgow vs Cardiff

Glasgow’s remarkable draw in Dublin two weeks ago was indicative of the capricious nature of the team, having had the game won before half-time, lost it, and then persisted to salvage three points as Peter Horne thumped over a touchline conversion. In a fixture which is of particular significance due to the imminent retirement of captain Alasdair Kellock and long-serving hooker Dougie Hall, Glasgow will hope to put up a big score on the Welsh, and Richie Vernon at centre is one to watch. Cardiff are much-changed from last week’s curious line-up which saw Tavis Knoyle play at centre. He returns to a more familiar role at scrum-half amongst 7 other changes. Cardiff’s form away from home has been even worse than at the Arms Park, and they Blues haven’t won since their last-minute, one point victory over Connacht in early March. Glasgow by 14.

Benetton Treviso vs Ospreys

This must be one of the poorest Treviso sides in the last ten years, and one which seems to add up to less than the sum of its parts. A respectable come-back at home to the Dragons came after a thumping in Italy to Edinburgh and a huge loss away to Connacht. Ospreys benefit from the return of Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb at half-back, while the forwards look absolutely formidable with the return of Wales’ Six Nations big-hitters, including Alun-Wyn Jones. In particular, a back-row of Lydiate, Tipuric, and Dan Baker is as finely balanced as they come. The Ospreys are fourth, and a big win would put additional pressure on a Leinster side who face a tougher trip to the Dragons. Ospreys by 17.

Connacht vs Ulster

Saturday’s Irish derby is particularly difficult to call. For Ulster, this is the start of three consecutive interprovincial derbies in what is a tough run-in – they finish away to Glasgow – which could lead to a home final in Belfast. Ulster’s second position in the table is down to a commendable consistency despite not always playing their best rugby. However, it has been particularly difficult for away sides to win in Galway this season, the sole example being Edinburgh’s three point win in early January. Connacht are playing their best and most consistent rugby for some years, and pushed Gloucester close at Kingsholm last week. What’s more, they have their own motivation in aiming for a Champions Cup spot next season. That said, Ulster’s freshness may see them through. Ulster by 4.

Zebre vs Scarlets

Scarlets are contesting the final automatic Champions Cup spot with Connacht and Edinburgh, following a disastrous home loss to the latter which saw replacement scrum-half Gareth Davies receive a red card for head-butting only two minutes after coming on. The Scarlets are in generally poor form with only one win from the last four. As restorative away fixtures go, a trip to Parma is the best you could hope for, although Zebre did win against the Dragons in their last home fixture in early March. The lack of a crowd means that the Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi is not the most intimidating venue on the circuit, and you would expect the Scarlets to negotiate the challenge and just about secure a bonus point. Scarlets by 14.

Edinburgh vs Munster

Munster, unusually out of Europe at an early stage, are ideally placed for a shot at league success and are firmly in contention for a home semi-final that, one imagines, would be close to unwinnable for the visiting side. They enter this game having won five from six of their last PRO12 games, and with all their returning internationals available for selection. While Edinburgh’s style is frequently stuffy, and at times ghastly, it does seem to have brought results over the course of the season, and they enter the game on the back of three consecutive away wins. However, they have had some anomalous home losses this year, particularly their last home fixture at BT Murrayfield which saw them lose to an Ulster side which finished with 13 men on the pitch. The limitations of their style mean that they will never be out of sight against a side like Munster, and this will leave them vulnerbale. Munster by 4.

Dragons vs Leinster

Dragons secured one of the results of the season – and possibly one of the best in their history – as they beat Leinster at the RDS in Round 14. Recent form has been impressive with victories against Ulster and away at Treviso, although perhaps the upcoming Challenge Cup semi-final against Edinburgh is a greater focus than the PRO12, where a Champions Cup place is already well out of reach. Leinster will certainly finish no lower than fifth, and given their progression to the Champions Cup semi-final, may view securing a PRO12 top four spot as a secondary priority. Their league form has been dire lately, and a somnolent Sunday afternoon fixture will probably suit the home side more. Dragons by 6.

How do you see the weekend going?

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images