Heineken Champions Cup 2018/19: Round 6 Predictions

Heineken Cup

I finally have some green arrows for my Champions Cup predictions on Superbru, having picked 8 out 10 last week and just failing to predict Edinburgh’s win in Toulon and Ulster’s home victory over Racing.

This weekend could be tricky with a few dead rubbers to play out, but here are my predictions for the final round of the Champions Cup group stages.

Newcastle v Toulon
Both teams are already out of the competition, and Toulon have been particularly dreadful, so a home win is the safest pick here. Newcastle by 7

Edinburgh v Montpellier
It’s remarkable that Edinburgh sit atop a group containing both Montpellier and Toulon, but they certainly deserve to be there. Richard Cockerill seems to be doing a fine job as coach, and could be at the England helm in the not too distant future. Anyway, Edinburgh on form and a travel-shy French side… Edinburgh by 4

Saracens v Glasgow
The Warriors should qualify as one of the best runners-up, although a losing bonus-point would help. I can’t see them winning. Saracens by 13

Cardiff v Lyon
The French have given up and won’t enjoy their sojourn to Wales. Cardiff by 8

Leicester v Ulster
Ulster need to win to ensure qualification, and given that the Tigers are out of the picture, I think they’ll do it. Ulster by 6

Racing v Scarlets
After defeat last weekend, Racing will want a bonus-point win at home to ensure they top the pool, regardless of what happens at Welford Road, and potentially secure a home quarter-final. Racing by 16

Castres v Gloucester
Another dead rubber, and I’m giving it to the home team again. Castres by 5

Munster v Exeter
A win at Thomond Park would see the Chiefs through, but those tend to be hard to come by and I can’t see it happening. Munster by 9

Toulouse v Bath
The French should ensure qualification as a best runner-up with a victory at home. The best runners-up used to come from the pools with Italian teams, but the English teams have been the easybeats in this pool. Toulouse by 18

Wasps v Leinster
Wasps were smashed in the reverse fixture in Round 1, and whilst I don’t think it will be that bad again, Leinster will be motivated to ensure a home quarter-final. Leinster by 16

5 thoughts on “Heineken Champions Cup 2018/19: Round 6 Predictions

  1. Having seen the team, I think that Gloucester will lose by more than 5, but then the last time I said that was before the away game at Exeter in the HC!

  2. Saw the Exeter v Munster game which was the most frustrating I’ve seen for a while. A pub punter said it was ‘exciting’ & a post match commentator opined that the game had ‘everthing’! FF’sS! There was 1 whole try in the match! Munster, whom, God knows how, won it, without even grounding the pill once! Don’t often find it easy to to have affinity with English sides ((Wasps aside in their prime, as they had an all court game & played to win, rather than not lose), but Exeter really ought to have put this to bed. With 15 to go, @ 13, 11 up, they had a pen. Instead of shooting for a goal, they opted for the ‘long’ line out, which they lost. Game over! Baxter & or the captain must be as dumb as rocks! Normally, I’d advocate going for a try, which shows intent & confidence but @ that stage, a pen was the ONLY choice. It would have possibly (probably) have won the game @ that point if they’ed kicked it, or @ least have given them possession back if they’d missed it. 2ndly, why on earth take a throw to the back? Exeter didn’t have to win the game @ that stage. They were ahead! A short throw was surely the only option. They blew the long shot & therefore ultimately the game as Munster kicked a pen (what a surprise when the pen count must have been through the roof for the home side) & that was that. But, it needn’t have been. All the (non?) decision maker had to do was keep his thinking going & choose the pragmatic option of pen, or if not that, then go for the front of the line out. This would almost certainly have secured possession & possibly points. It would certainly have chewed more clock, which, @ that stage, would have likely have gained the win. Baxter for future England manager? On that performance, not bloody likely.

    1. Don, to be fair to Exeter, that is the game that they play, so its hard to complain about them doing that when more often than not a kick to the corner results in a try. Also they needed to win by more than 7, so yhey needed the try rather than the penalty. However, given their results in Europe, maybe a more pragmatic game plan is what they need.

      1. Ok Staggy. Unaware of Exe’s need for 7. View game’s for their sake. With no affinity to a particular team now, don’t have the of interest level in pts permutations. However, it was a judgement call to go for the line out with 15 left & still with the likelihood of regaining possession if they’d missed the pen. Also, why risk a long line out, especially as you pointed out, that they needed a try? Still not bright rugby I think.

    2. Exeter had no choice but to go for the corner, as a LBP sent Munster through. So they needed to score at least 4 penalties if they turned down the try, winning 14-9 would not have been enough.
      Think of it as a 2-legged tie in football, with Munster 2 goals up from the first leg. Even a 1 goal defeat was still a “victory” for Munster.


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