Six Nations 2015: England vs France Prediction

Attempting to preview this year’s Le Crunch is somewhat difficult given the great gamut of permutations that could lead into it. Chances are, Wales and Ireland will win earlier in the day, but by how many is anyone’s guess. No matter what anyone inside the camp says, it will affect the way England approach the game – if a win by three is enough, they’ll keep it tight and look to knock over penalties, but if they need to score more points they will, obviously, open things up.

France could, bafflingly, still be in with a shot at the title come kick-off too, although they would require both Wales and Ireland to lose to the bottom two sides, which is about as probable as everyone wholeheartedly agreeing with every refereeing decision this weekend. More likely, they will be out to salvage some pride after a campaign that has seen them plumb new depths under beleaguered coach Philippe Saint-André.

England

There’s one change to the team that beat Scotland with British and Irish Lion Geoff Parling coming in for Dave Attwood. The big Bath lock’s influence has been on the wane this tournament, and Parling’s injection from the bench last weekend was impressive. He will add line-out nous against a French set-piece that has been performing well so far.

Elsewhere it is as you were, Dylan Hartley perhaps lucky to keep his place in the starting line-up having had a quiet Six Nations so far, and Tom Youngs looking dangerous off the bench. The back row trio of Chris Robshaw, James Haskell and Billy Vunipola have yet to re-hit the heights of opening night in Cardiff, but get another chance to do so this weekend.

Much focus will rest, once again, on George Ford. With ball in hand he has had a fine championship, orchestrating the most prolific side of the tournament so far, but he needs an improved place kicking performance to allay some of the doubts that are starting to creep in around that part of his game.

Luther Burrell is another who needs a big performance, so as not to leave the tournament with the impression that he is just keeping the shirt warm for someone else. The back three have gelled into a dangerous unit in a short time, while once again Danny Cipriani waits in the wings. Will he be given more game time this weekend? That, one suspects, will hinge entirely on what kind of winning margin England are chasing in the second half.

France

Bof. What more can we say about the French? Much has been penned about how far they are from the French teams of old, lacking flair and the ability to play off the cuff. Interestingly though, when talking to those with first hand experience of French rugby (Jonny Wilkinson and Iain Balshaw, for example) they say it is a lower level of professionalism, and an unwillingness to put in the extra hours in order to come out on top of the small margins that often define international rugby matches, that is truly hurting the French.

Wilkinson in particular has been critical of France’s lack of structure, and it is true that without a bona fide game-plan, there is nothing from which these flair players can break out. This comes down to the half-backs, and it doesn’t look likely to change this weekend with Seb Tillous-Borde and Jules Plisson combining as Saint-André’s 16th half-back pairing in 37 tests. Such a lack of continuity in selection hardly engenders coherence in a team.

Once again, there is an abundance of talent on the teamsheet, but the question, as it perennially seems to, surrounds whether they can bring it to life on the pitch. Jules Plisson has the talent to unleash a dangerous set of backs, but does he have the temperament? Like so many French fly-halves he was hailed as the saviour, only to be discarded after he didn’t magically fix all their problems straight away. He returns from exile but how he handles the responsibility will be key.

All eyes on

It has been a stirling Championship thus far for Ben Youngs, who has firmly cemented himself as England’s first choice number nine – a position in which the selection committee have fluctuated more than most in recent years. Youngs is now one of the senior heads in this team, and along with Ford will be resonsible for ensuring England maintain a high tempo in the game, which will be key to beating this French side, no matter what margin of victory is needed. The visitors will be more than up for an arm wrestle, and Youngs’ snappy service and sniping runs can ensure they aren’t allowed to settle.

Gael Fickou should have been one of this generation’s great players, and yet his progress has stalled. Possessing all the skill of French backs of old, and a gliding running style that belies a devastating top speed, he should have had the rugby world in the palm of his hand by now. That he hasn’t, is indicative of a French rugby set-up that has lost its ability to nurture the best young talent. That said, he hurt England in this game last year with a late piece of brilliance, and France are in dire need of something similar now to lift the fans from their disdainful stupor.

Prediction

Somewhat counter-intuitively, France’s best chance of a win here will come if they no longer have a shot at the title. Should Wales and Ireland both win big, then England will have to force matters. They have proven themselves adept at playing an open game this championship, but with points difference on the brain they may lose sight of the initial goal of just winning the game.

While France’s play has been a long way from pretty thus far, they have conceded just two tries. That sort of defensive solidity should be a foundation upon which they can carve out wins, but ineptitude in attack and poor accuracy from the tee has stopped them from doing so.

If England can create half the number of chances they did against Scotland last weekend, but convert them with greater success, they should be far too good for this faltering French outfit – whatever the margin of victory they are chasing. Whether or not it will be enough to win the Championship is a different matter, and will likely have a say on the margin of victory. England by 9.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images