Six Nations 2015: England vs Scotland Prediction

A loss away to an Ireland team on a 12 match winning streak does not necessarily betray any serious, irredeemable deficiency. A loss at home to Italy, on the other hand, in a game that was entirely under control, probably does. England’s shortcomings in Dublin were exposed only in the most testing of circumstances by a side with an extraordinary technical ability and collective focus. This is still a highly competent English side who never lack confidence when playing at home and who will relish a less pressured stage on which to perform.

It is often said that Scottish teams are at their most competitive when least is expected of them. Perhaps, then, recent implosions are all part of a conscious long term strategy to bring success by lowering national expectations for almost any fixture. However, this coming Saturday seems an unlikely hour of renaissance. Stuart Hogg rattled various cages this week by accusing the English players of lacking respect. Frankly, it would be nigh impossible for any outside the camp to muster it. A win would be the greatest result in the last 20 years of Scottish rugby history, and arguably England’s worst since the loss to Argentina in November 2006.

England

England’s defeat in Dublin was the sort of slapping down often imparted to touring student rugby teams by grizzled town sides. It was not skill and speed of foot that was found wanting, but a collective failure to identify and execute a singular game plan against a shrewd opposition. Indeed, Stuart Lancaster may be too much of an idealist for his own good. This England side, who from 10-14 have an average of only 8 caps, have an exuberance which doesn’t always sit well with the requirements of championship and World Cup rugby. On Saturday, however, this is unlikely to matter.

England find themselves considerably strengthened for this fixture. Watching them capitulate in Dublin without Mike Brown, who returns this week, only served to show the ridiculous nature of debates over his selection in the first place. Scotland are poor both in chasing and receiving the high ball, which presents an opportunity for Brown to gain England cheap field position. Courtney Lawes, yet to appear in the tournament due to injury, will add bite in defence. It is to Finn Russell’s credit that he holds the ball late in attack, but one imagines that Lawes, quick over the first 10 metres, will consider him a real target.

England will also look for a response from the back-row, unchanged for a fourth consecutive match. As was increasingly apparent in Dublin, the Haskell-Robshaw-Vunipola combination lacks nous at the breakdown, where Scotland’s Blair Cowan is a formidable if often lonely presence. At eight, Vunipola was hugely effective at Murrayfield last year but is yet to make the same impact this time around. This game presents a real opportunity to carry into a small opposition midfield. Should he do so, England’s backline will have the time and space to play positively.

Scotland

Injury to Alex Dunbar, which may rule him out of the World Cup, is an utter disaster. The Glasgow centre runs intelligently and tackles hard, is immovable at the breakdown, and provides an easy get-out option in a side not blessed with stature. While Dunbar’s combination with Matt Scott has proved successful in the past, the Scott-Bennett axis lacks both size and game-time, and Scott will find Luther Burrell heading his way for the duration.

Finn Russell returns from suspension and will relish the stage. Should he steer Scotland even close to victory, it will be one of the great performances of Scottish rugby in the professional era. Dougie Fife had a mixed night in Paris and was dropped for the next two games, but showed considerable form for Edinburgh away to Treviso last week and returns to the right wing. In the back-row, Dave Denton is probably a less rounded player than Johnnie Beattie, but is more likely to deliver the ball-carrying goods. In a Scotland side lacking Dunbar or a carrying six, a healthy contribution is much-needed.

Interestingly, the bench includes two more back-rowers in Beattie and Adam Ashe, and the latter’s return to full fitness really can’t come quickly enough. Indeed, the combination of Cowan and the two substitutes has the potential to open the game up later on. In the front five, Jim Hamilton’s inclusion for Tim Swinson is an undisguised admission that the defensive rolling maul is a horrible weakness in the Scots’ game, although one suspects Hamilton’s selection alone will not be enough.

All Eyes On

Luther Burrell, who so frequently looks a top class centre for Northampton, struggled two weeks ago and was slated to be dropped for Brad Barritt until injury put an end to the latter’s tournament. This is an opportunity against an untested and diminutive Scottish centre pairing to make some serious inroads and provide the foundation for a more expansive approach.

Scotland may threaten sporadically in the wider channels and disrupt at the breakdown through Harley and Cowan, but unless Alasdair Dickinson can achieve parity in the scrum against Dan Coles and effectively contest the rolling maul, the resistance will be fitful.

Prediction

Even if Scotland had won their three preceding fixtures, they would still have headed to Twickenham as second-favourites. It is an unfortunate truth that since 1983, Scottish sides far better than this one have lost against English sides far worse than their contemporaries. In the last fifteen years, Scotland have been variously hapless, committed, or lively in south-west London, but there has rarely been a contest on the scoreboard sustained for 80 minutes. In truth, there are a number of ways that England could win this. If the backs misfire, they need only to kick to the corners and exert pressure at the breakdown to accumulate points. Short of a hammering, but far from close, England to win by 17.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images