Six Nations 2015: Italy vs France Prediction

A French side in complete disarray, lacking leadership from the top down with little or no clue as to their strongest team faces off against a rejuvenated Italian team in Rome this Sunday. Italy will take huge confidence from their last minute heroics in round three to beat Scotland, and the knowledge that they beat the French in Rome in 2013.

Italy’s opening two games fell into the “spirited loss” category, but both games would pale in significance compared to their last-gasp win at Murrayfield over Scotland, when a penalty try in the last minute gave the Italians a sweet away win over a home side that were heavy favourites.

After turgid French losses to Ireland and Wales, huge questions are being asked of Philippe Saint-Andre with some commentators suggesting he should be removed from his post before the World Cup. This is very unlikely given the short turnaround a new coach would have, but can’t be entirely ruled out given the hostility from supporters after several poor results.

Italy

The Azzurri backed up sporadic moments of innovation against Ireland and England with a well-rounded performance in their victory over Scotland. You could argue the point that their goal at the beginning of the competition has now been accomplished – one win is the most any Italian team could hope for, right? Not so – given the lamentable position the French find themselves in and added to home advantage, Italy may smell blood in the water on Sunday. It remains to be seen whether their execution matches their unquestionable impetus to succeed.

Michele Campagnaro’s injury has opened the door for Luca Morisi to fill his shoes at outside centre and offer a real threat in the backline. While not at his Twickenham best, he stood up well against Alex Dunbar and Mark Bennett last weekend.

The Italians have somewhat of a crisis at out-half with both Kelly Haimona and Tommaso Allan suffering injuries this week. Veteran out-half Luciano Orquera has been brought in as injury cover and, if he ends up startint, will hope to repeat his heroics in 2013 when he guided the Italians to a famous win over the French.

The issue of a consistent goal-kicker hangs over this team like a dark cloud. The poor conversion rate of Haimona so far may tempt Jacques Brunel to go with the experience of Orquera from the start regardless of fitness.

France

Tinkerman Saint-Andre has rung eight changes to his side from the one that lost to Wales. A cacophony of boos rang round the Stade de France after France fell to their second defeat in a row and while change is what was called for by those in attendance, most would prefer it to be at the top rather than wholesale on the field.

Nicolas Mas has finally been restored to the front row to accompany Guilhem Guirado and Eddy Ben Arous. Yoann Maestri and Alexandre Flanquart partner each other in the second row. Damien Chouly has been demoted to the bench as Loann Goujon comes in at eight with Bernard le Roux and Thierry Dustoir on either flank.

Five of the changes come in the backline as Sebastian Tillous-Borde starts inside Camille Lopez, with Morgan Parra injured. A new centre partnership comprises Gael Fickou and Maxime Mermoz after Fofana was ruled out with injury and Bastareaud was left on the bench. Try-scoring full back Bryce Dulin has lost his place as Scott Spedding, bizarrely, returns at full back. Noa Nakaitaci will make his Test debut on the left wing and becomes the 82nd player used by Saint-Andre since he took charge at the start of 2012.

All Eyes On

It is hard to think of an Italian team in the last decade that didn’t have Sergio Parisse packing down at eight. The ever present backrow forward is among the best number eights of his generation and will spearhead the Italian team again on Sunday. He understands the French way of playing and is familiar with their personnel as he plies his trade in the Top 14. Last time out against Scotland he didn’t hit the heights we usually expect of him but his presence alone is worth its weight in gold.

Camille Lopez is not afforded the luxury of Morgan Parra inside him this weekend, but he must seize this opportunity to banish the whispers from the doubters. Last weekend he and Parra were both wide of the mark on a number of occasions from the tee, and at the highest level precision is of paramount importance. He now has the centre combination of Fickou and Mermoz to work with and will be tasked with bringing the dangerous Nakaitaci into the game as much as possible.

Prediction

In 2013 Italy caught France sleeping and chalked up a 23-18 win thanks largely to the two-try virtuoso performance of experienced out-half Luciano Orquera. He is yet to feature in this campaign but has been drafted in as injury cover. Could it be fate that sees the 33-year old topple the French again in Rome?

It remains unlikely. Saint-Andre has restored Mas to the front row and selected a balanced looking centre partnership. This win holds huge significance for the French as a loss here could lead to an annihilation by England in the final round. I expect the Italians to do the jersey proud and put in a good showing but the visitors will grind out a win. France by 10.

By Hugh Foyle (@hfoyle)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images