Six Nations 2015: Wales vs Ireland Prediction

After the most disheartening start to the tournament possible, the Welsh have the wind in their sails once again. They have turned things around majestically and carry the momentum of two excellent away wins with them as they return home to try to reassert the Millennium Stadium’s fortress status.

Their opponents this weekend, however, view the Cardiff venue as anything but a fortress. As has been well publicised, The Irish have a good record against the Welsh and have beaten them on the last two occasions of this fixture. Wales have just one win over Ireland since 2005.

The roof at the Millennium Stadium will be left open, and with a cool, breezy day forecast, the kicking game – which was set to be so vital anyway – will be even more crucial. It is a Grand Slam and potentially championship defining match and, as is so often the case, it is unbelievably difficult to call.

Wales

Wales’ resurgence in the last couple of games has come from an awful lot of hard work punctuated by a few moments of true quality – think Dan Biggar finishing a slick move from the base of a scrum in Paris, or Jonathan Davies’ slithering run to the line in Murrayfield. Leigh Halfpenny has been waiting in the shadows, ready to knock over any penalties and the importance of his laser-eye boot cannot be underestimated.

Warren Gatland has named the same starting line-up as the one that overcame the French in Paris as he looks for the continuity in selection to be mirrored in performance. Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins have solidified the set-piece after a chastening opening weekend but will face their sternest test since that game against an Ireland unit that has punched above its weight so far.

As ever, the half-backs will play a crucial role but tomorrow they need to be better than ever. Against the best tactical kicking duo around, Webb and Biggar must make sure when they use the boot, they use it accurately. Biggar’s kicking has been excellent this championship, but it is not the strongest part of Webb’s game.

Ireland

When talking about Ireland these days, there is only one place to start. Johnny Sexton has taken over Brian O’Driscoll’s mantle of on-field talisman, and has redefined the way we talk about tactical kicking. Along with Conor Murray, they make it incredibly different for the opposition to gain a platform to play from, and Wales’ back three will have to be on the money with their return kicks and counter attacks.

The Irish outside backs are yet to see a great deal of ball this Championship, and with the tactics that have been so successful so far unlikely to change, they probably won’t see a great deal of ball this time either.

Devin Toner and Paul O’Connell have been imperious on opposition line-out ball, and it is an area that they will target with Wales’ set-piece having wobbled at times. Leinster props Jack McGrath and Mike Ross continue after impressively winning the scrum battle against England, with Cian Healy waiting in the wings to unleash his power from the bench.

All eyes on

The back rows have deliberately not been mentioned until now. The battle between Lydiate, Warbuton and Faletau, and O’Mahony, O’Brien and Heaslip at the breakdown will be monumental, and every bit as vital as the aerial duel that everyone has been focussing on this week. O’Mahony in particular was superb in Ireland’s latest win, unleashing his own brand of controlled chaos at the tackle area to deny England a platform to play from. Heaslip returns to take the place of Jordi Murphy, and will need to replicate his Leinster teammate’s willingness to get stuck into the nitty-gritty stuff.

It will be the greatest test of the Welsh back-row’s credentials to date. There is plenty of graft in their trio, and Warburton in particular has upped his game at the breakdown in the past two rounds to win some crucial turnovers for his side. If they can handle Ireland’s aggression (the Irish trio are all monumentally big men) then they will have a chance of winning the game.

Prediction

This will be one of the biggest tests of Joe Schmidt’s career as Ireland coach to date. His side are relentlessly pragmatic, and Wales will know exactly what to expect. Whether they can go about stopping it, of course, is another matter, and it will require their own game to match Ireland’s level of precision.

If they can do that, and gain parity at the breakdown, then they have the firepower to beat the Irish. They will need to start quickly and get an early advantage, because Ireland have developed the ability to stifle their opposition once ahead. We have not yet seen, however, if their game-plan is effective when chasing a game, or indeed if they are malleable enough as a team to open the game up if needs be.

That is, of course, easier said than done. Ireland bring such confidence in their style of play into this game (and why wouldn’t you, after 10 wins on the bounce?) that it is hard to see Wales opening up any sizeable lead over the visitors. It is unlikely to be a game that will grace too many highlight reels in the future, but Ireland’s precision and physicality could win the day once again. Ireland by 3.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images