Ok, so a ‘likely upset’ is a bit of an oxymoron, but “The 4 Rugby World Cup games least likely to go the way of the favourite” is a hell of a mouthful and an ineffective title. Anyway, we’ve picked out four games that could well go the way of France vs Tonga in 2011. And guess who’s first up?
1. France vs Italy
Pool D, September 19th
Ah, France. It’s always difficult to say what exactly constitutes an upset when Le Bleus are involved, such is their topsy turvy form whenever they take to the pitch. Earlier this year they beat Italy 29-0 on their own patch, but anyone who watched the game will know that wasn’t the whole story. It was a dreary game in which both sides were fairly dire, France merely less so. Italy have sneaked wins in two of the last five encounters between the two sides, and France have been known to start slowly. In 2011 they lost to Tonga and only reached the knockout stages thanks to bonus points. Italy are a better side than Tonga, and in what will be the last hurrah for a few of their legends, they’ll come out firing.
2. Scotland vs Japan/USA
Pool B, September 23rd/27th
A controversial one, this. Scotland will also face an almighty battle against Samoa, but given that the Pacific Islanders sit above them in the World Rankings, I’m not convinced that would really constitute an upset. Were they to lose to Japan or the USA, however, people would sit up and take notice. Both sides are on the up, and I’ve a sneaking suspicion one or both of them will cause an upset at some stage. In the recent Pacific Nations Cup, the US lost to Samoa by the narrow margin of five points, while Japan came within the same margin of beating overall winners Fiji. You’d like to think that the new, improved Scotland under Vern Cotter would have no trouble against these perceived minnows, but at a World Cup, you really never know and one thing is for certain – Japan and the USA have nothing to lose, and will go out and give it a lash.
3. Wales vs Fiji
Pool A, October 1st
Pool A was difficult enough even before Fiji blasted their way through the Pacific Nations Cup with a mixture of power and their usual bravado – all without global superstar Nemani Nadolo. They have certainly caught the eye of the so-called ‘big three’ in the pool, England, Wales and Australia. And while they don’t have a brilliant record against any of the tier one teams, they did come within four points of beating Wales at the Millennium Stadium last November. That fact will be drilled into their players in the build-up to this game, and it will make Wales wary of resting too many players. But here’s the catch: the game comes trickily placed just five days after Wales play England at Twickenham, a match they will go all guns blazing for, and will probably leave with several battered and bruised bodies. Will they risk their frontline players against Fiji, with another crunch game against Australia still to come?
4. South Africa vs Samoa
Pool B, September 26th
South Africa have been the undisputed second best team in the world in the past couple of years, and yet all of a sudden they find themselves on a five game losing streak and unsure of their rugby identity at the most crucial of times. Do they stick to the power/kicking hybrid game that has served them well down the years, or are they the free-running side epitomised by the likes of Willie le Roux, Handré Pollard and Jesse Kriel? If they don’t work it out soon, they could well come unstuck against Samoa, who are in no doubt of how they want to play the game. They will match the Boks for physicality and although they came off second best recently against the All Blacks, they won a lot of admirers for how they got stuck in and mixed it with the best. Imagine the Boks lose against Argentina this weekend, then beat Japan in their opening game, but still underwhelm. Samoa are not a team you want to play when low on confidence, because they will punish you. The Boks should still cruise through Pool B, but their recent blip in form makes them more vulnerable to a banana skin like this than first thought.
So, where do you see the upsets coming in the World Cup group stages? Leave your thoughts below.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
14 replies on “The 4 Most Likely Upsets at Rugby World Cup 2015”
I think just as likely as Italy beating France would be for Romania to beat Italy, and although it may not shock World Rugby into action the way Argentina’s 3rd place did in 2007, it would lead to fresh calls for a shake-up of European Rugby, with promotion/relegation from the Six Nations probably at the forefront of discussions.
I think Georgia are also a decent outside bet of getting to the Quarter-finals. Possibly less so after Argentina beat South Africa, but similar to your Wales/Fiji reasoning, Argentina have to play Georgia just 5 days after playing the All Blacks.
I think the only possibility is Italy beating France but the rest I think no chance of surprise. I do however agree with Rob in that promotion/relegation should be brought into 6nations and I have said so on my own blog years ago!
The most likely win for the bookies is the Pumas over the MIB in their first game and England and Wales beating anyone.
People are getting to carried away by Argentina’s win last week, quick to forget they were pounded the week before against Australia….They will get brought right back down to earth on saturday.
It is perfectly possible Fiji could beat England in that they are a settled team and match hard and they may catch us so cold and ring rusty that they build a decent lead and squeak home.They play without fear and their confidence is high after winning the Pacific Championship
Most likely upset deja vu and France to beat New Zealand in a quarter finall at the Millenium Stadium
Surely Wales beating Australia would be considered an upset – and with my daffodil-tinted glasses on I hope that’s more likely than Fiji beating Wales!
Wales or Aus beating Eng at their own World Cup, in Twickenham, would be seen as a massive upset and both could happen. Unlikely, but could. Nobody could say those games are both bankers but th media and world-cup-only fans would be stunned.
I am most nervous about Wal v Fiji. I can see it happening and remember 07 all too well. We could lose three games in this group. Or win them all. Who knows.
That’s what makes this year so exciting!
Brighty,
The whole Pool D issue for Wales was all caused by the greed of the WRU with that idiot Roger the Dodger at the helm. He knows Wales are almost certain not to get through and has jumped ship b 4 all the recriminations are directed at him post-exit at the pool stage.
That said deciding the groups/seedings in Dec 2012 when the tournament was not taking place for almost 3 years is another senseless way in which this entire tournament has been arranged.
Agree Enoch. The desire the fill the stadium in the autumn has screwed us over here.
Yep Brighty
It was the constant insistence on playing a 4th international outside the official window to get tv coverage/money from the BBC and it always always ended in defeat as we never had the none Wales-based players available and it forced the selection of ‘weaker’ 15 sides far too often.
I firmly believe that Roger the Dodger had a clause in his WRU contract giving him a big cash bonus if he reduced the debt by x% over so many years.
He duly did this but to do so bled the regions dry of cash and drove Wales below 8th ranking with his absurd obsession with the 4th international year on year.
Well at least he has gone too and Amen I say to that!
Mostly likely upset could be Fiji v England Uruguay could possibly beat England they forget they Uruguay are north American champions fail do your research and homework and they could get a win in some matches and that goes for everyone nation in the group
Should Uruguay beat England, I think it would register as the greatest upset in rugby since Llanelli beat the All Blacks