It goes without saying that 2015 is set to be one of the biggest years in professional rugby yet, with the Rugby World Cup in England looming large and making it next to impossible to talk about anything that comes before it without mentioning its context. Here are some predictions for the year ahead – let us know what you think below.
Six Nations 2015
Winner: Ireland
Runner-up: Wales
Wooden Spoon: Italy
If Ireland can continue to systematically dismantle teams the way they did this autumn, identifying a side’s weakness and picking them apart from it, then they will prosper in the Six Nations. They face France and England at home, which is crucial, and it could well come down to a winner-takes-all clash with Wales in Cardiff. England’s having to travel to both Cardiff and Dublin makes them third favourites. Scotland to continue their resurgence under Vern Cotter and shock at least one of the big four with a win.
European Rugby Champions Cup
Winner: Clermont Auvergne
Runner-up: Northampton Saints
Toulon’s absence might raise a few eyebrows but three European Cup wins in a row has never been achieved for a reason. They’ve looked fallible at times this season, and with a trip to the Scarlets in the final round their loss away at Cardiff last year will play on their minds. Clermont are quietly going about their business and should get a home quarter-final, as should Saints. They’re both top of their respective leagues and could carry that form through to what would be an epic European final.
Aviva Premiership
Winner: Northampton Saints
Runner-up: Saracens
Relegated: London Welsh
It’s looking like the era of the Saints in the Premiership – no side has matched their consistency this season, and while that doesn’t always translate to play-off success, they’ve managed knockout rugby well in the last couple of years. It’s almost impossible not to see them in the final, and Sarries could well join them. They’re not doing anything more than they have to at the moment, almost like Leicester have over the past decade. Expect them to kick on and surge into the top two, probably displacing Bath who will end up with an away semi-final. Leicester to complete the top four with a typical new year run. London Welsh, obviously, to be relegated.
Guinness PRO12
Winner: Glasgow
Runner-up: Munster
Semi-finalists in 2013, finalists last year, is this the year Glasgow go all the way? It’s tough to see them emerging from their European pool after that home loss to Toulouse, so they should be able to focus all of their efforts on the league, so why not? Their likely final obstacle will be either Munster or the Ospreys, depending on who has a stronger 2015 – Leinster could be distracted by Europe, and don’t look to have the quality this year to challenge on two fronts. As things stand in the table at the moment, only one Welsh side would qualify for the Champions Cup next season, too. The Scarlets to chase down Connacht and nab sixth place from them.
Top 14
Winner: Toulon
Runner-up: Stade Français
Relegated: La Rochelle, Bayonne
Clermont, Stade Français, Toulon and Racing Métro are all within touching distance of each other at the top of the table, but as Castres have proved over the past few years if you can make it into sixth place, you’re in with a chance. They won’t be upsetting the apple cart this year, but dark horses like Grenoble or Bordeaux could do just that. Toulon still look favourites though, purely because of their immense strength in depth – and that’s what tends to win domestic championships. La Rochelle look like yo-yoing back down to the PRO D2, while Bayonne, who escaped by the skin of their teeth last year, could be in trouble again.
Greene King IPA Championship
Winner: Bristol
Runner-up: Worcester
Relegated: Plymouth Albion
It’s a two horse race in the Championship with Bristol and Worcester way out in front. Having fallen at the final hurdle last year, and in a less-ridiculous play-off system this time around, Bristol won’t make the same mistake again. Plymouth, winless thus far, are primed for the drop.
Super Rugby
Winner: Crusaders
Runner-up: Sharks
The Waratahs will struggle to back up their maiden Super Rugby victory, especially now they are Michael Cheika-less. Everyone will be hoping to impress in a World Cup year and when you look at the Crusaders’ roster, that is a scary prospect. They lost by two points in the final last year – expect them to go one better in 2015.
World Sevens Series
Winner: South Africa
Rio 2016 qualification: New Zealand, Fiji, Australia
The Blitzbokke are on fire at the moment, winning back to back tournaments in Dubai and Port Elizabeth to catapult them to the top of the IRB rankings. There are still plenty of legs left in the series, but they look the team to beat, especially with Seabelo Senatla in the form of his life. The next three teams at the end of the series earn automatic qualification for Rio 2016 – a huge carrot. England are the most likely to upset the established trio above, but if they fail to do so would have to rely on winning a European qualification tournament in 2015 for Great Britain to qualify.
The Rugby Championship
Winner: South Africa
Runner-up: New Zealand
Many of New Zealand’s 2011 World Cup winning team have spoken of how being rested and rotated and, ultimately, not winning the Tri-Nations that year actually served them well when it came to the main event. So with that in mind, they’ll likely rest players again, and with South Africa and Australia gunning to make up ground, one of the two could pip them to the title. The Boks look the most likely, but whether it’ll make any difference come World Cup time is, of course, debatable.
Rugby World Cup 2015
Winner: New Zealand
Runner-up: Ireland
And of course, the year ends with the big one. Even now, with only nine months or so to go, it remains wickedly difficult to predict anything with any real confidence. New Zealand will start as favourites and rightly so, but after a pool they should win they could face a tricky path to the final, in which they will feasibly have to beat both France, their nemesis in the past, and South Africa, the only side to have beaten them since 2012. At the moment, thought, they look good enough to do it. Ireland are real dark horses given their abject failure at World Cups in the past, but they have a winnable pool, are peaking at the right time and boast one of the best coaches in the world right now. Why not?
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
16 replies on “2015: Predictions for a huge year in rugby”
Think England having the weakest 3 teams in the tournament at home gives us a great chance on points difference if we can secure an away win, even if a Grand Slam were to elude us. For example, if we beat Wales (not inconceivable) and Wales beat Ireland in Cardiff (50:50) and Ireland beat us in Dublin (probably favourite at this stage), then all 3 teams would be quite evenly placed, but England’s home games against Italy and Scotland could be an opportunity to rack up a big lead going into the final day, where we also play last against a (potentially disinterested) France.
For the World Cup, I think both New Zealand and Ireland may get “soft runs” to the semis (New Zealand: Argentina, Namibia, Georgia, Tonga, France?) (Ireland: Canada, Romania, Italy, France, Argentina?) and we’ve seen teams come unstuck by that before (NZ and Aus in the quarters in 2007, England in 2011). I think pools A and B (other than NZ and Ireland) are just tougher than C and D, so whoever survives them to take the 2 semi-final spots might get a bit of an advantage going into that stage.
Spot on I think apart from the World cup. I have a nasty feeling aus might do their usual smash and grab in NH world cup. I would also add that if Wales beat England on the opening weekend, they could pip Ireland, who have never shouldered the favourites tag well. 2005 and 2008 (if I recall) stared with wins versus England for Wales and ended in GSs!
No chance Ireland were favourites in 2008 as we had to travel to Twickenham and Paris.
6Ns all hinges on that first game for me. If Wales win it then I’d back us to win the title, if not then I agree with Rob that England’s likely tally against Italy could be the difference to swing it for England.
I expect Ospreys to be in the top 2 of the Pro12. Lots of the big guns played already. Will be surprised if more than 1 Welsh team makes it into the Heineken (can’t bring myself to type the awful, awful “Champs Cup” bland name for a comp…).
What about the euro challenge cup?
I’ll have a crack at it.
Bordeaux beat Connacht in semi
Exeter beat Gloucester in semi
Winner : Exeter Chiefs
Runner up : Bordeaux Begles.
James,I read somewhere that Cheika was staying with Waratahs during SR? I still however agree that the Crusaders will take some stopping.Having said I wonder how many ABs will be used sparingly during SR as well as Championship!Especially during latter stages! RWC is an interesting call. Ireland for sure have a change but don’t write off the Boks! I would agree with other predictions!
You may be right about England’s chances, but after finishing 1st or 2nd for the last four years, 3rd would be a considerable step backwards.
Which is what is so depressing Geat. Even though we came up short last 6n and in the summer, I really had hopes that England had atleast expanded their game, which would pay dividend in the next season. Sadly the AIs showed that SL not prepared to give up his Barritt security blanket. I expect his name is pencilled/ inked in for the 12 shirt. Cue a rerun of the 2013 6n where England were (mostly) competaive but distinctly blunt in attack. If we beat Wales we will likely come 2nd, but imagine we’ll lose to both Wales and Ireland and come third.
I know on paper it looks regressive to go from 2nd to 3rd but the 6Ns is such a tight tournament that if you’re not 1st you can be 2nd/3rd or even 4th and it all be because of 1 narrow loss to the leader and then some pts diff.
Are Ireland really as good as everyone is making out? Not sure I can see them winning their first ever RWC semi final (and at Twickenham), if France, New Zealand or Argentina don’t beat them before!
Also, remember Wales were terrible in the 6N four years ago but nearly (and should have) got to the final. There’ll be several twists and turns along the way…
Would also be great if Samoa made the quarter finals. All eyes on St James’ Park for their match with Scotland on October 10th..
Thought I’d let you know that the tahs aren’t cheika-less he’s still the head coach for the 2015 season along with being the wallabies coach, go on the tahs website and you’ll see photos of him at the traiming sessions in the last few days.
Rob
Surely you ought to be looking for England to WIN all their 6N games rather than @ pts diffs, esp in a WC yr? The tourney had a weakness in that it’s not on a completely home & away basis. Therefore its outcome is somewhat lop sided in favour of the team getting it’s tougher 2 games @ home. However, it is what it is, although not too much should be read into its final table result. IMO, England will do well to beat Ireland AND Wales away, but will also surely need to employ more the limited aerial bombardment they used v Oz?
I was somewhat flabbergasted to read that Stuart Barnes (‘the running fly1/2’), of all people, advocated aerial ping pong as the right tactic (or was it tic tac?) for England leading up to the WC. This was on the basis that they tried to ‘play too much rugby (in the wrong parts of the field) in NZ’. Abandoning an all round game for a regression to R1 seems to be the way forward then? A def maybe I think. On http://www.therugbyblog.com/amongst-a-smattering-of-positives-a-central-dilemma-remains-for-england I stated that there are NO guarantees that ANY team will win the WC. It’s still (relatively) early days yet & there are a number of permutations, 1 of which could conceivably see a NZ, England final. However England have to beat both Oz & Wales to get an easier run in. NZ may again face France after the 1st stage, or could Ireland win their pool? And many seem to rate SA’s chances again, yet they lost to both Ireland AND Wales in the Autumn! Home advantage will undoubtedly help England, esp if they have NH refs officiating in their games. However, unless they do well in the upcoming 6N, it’ll likely be time for SL to do more than talk about his ‘vision’ (what is it exactly?) & ‘being back on track’ to get England believing that they can look forward to the WC with any real confidence.
Don, personally I don’t believe that the RWC is quite as straightforward as many believe. Obviously the “Group of Death” has never been straightforward, but many give the impression that the others are a formality.
NZ play Argentina in their first match. Thereafter they have three pretty straightforward games before meeting France or Ireland (my guess, France) in the quarters. Not so straightforward, whichever team they face.
On the other side, I believe that it is not inconceivable that Scotland could beat SA. We will see during the 6N but the signs are that Cotter has got a changed team, and they look like they could be pretty handy by the time the RWC comes around.
Blub
I’m glad some believe it’s a straight forward WC, but there’re usually 1 or 2 surprise results which can throw a spanner into the works. Also, possibly from the 1/4, or certainly the semi finals onwards, there may be more flying spanners to contend with. I was pondering the perms & scratching my head, but the more I pondered & scratched the less certain I became regds some outcomes… more or less. You, e.g., hit a nail on the head with Scotland as Vern Cotter seems a wily fox & his team may derail 1 or 2.. although I don’t think they’ll overturn the Springbox. Another toughie for me is Joe Schmidt & Ireland. He is, according to 1 Pad in the pub, ”the best coach in the world”! That’s a premature ejaculation at the moment of course, but he has won 3 trophies in Fr & Ireland… & the 6N 1st up. He seems, thus far at least, to have the tactical nous to know which tactics to use & when. For me, it’s too early to tell as yet, but the 6N will likely be a pointer for these aforementioned 2 as well as for SL. France. Duff coach IMO, but wasn’t it the same before the last WC? Wales? Could be a 6N marker for them… or not? Needs to be though for a WC con booster. And Oz may be a sleeper too as I think too many here write them off purely on the perception of scrum ‘weakness’. I’ve already mentioned that in territory/poss, they dominated @ Twick, also WINNING 100% of their own scrums, but, for me, it was really the pen count & t/overs that tangibly dun for them (but no one here believes me of course). MC will have noted this though methinks, so… another potential spanner? We’ll see, but stressful, exciting times ahead?
or, Springboks!