When South Africa and England leave Twickenham stadium on Saturday, one side’s fans will be baying for blood. For one of the teams ranked second and third in the world, they will be zero from two for the autumn – and that simply isn’t good enough.
The pressure is on. Heyneke Meyer and Stuart Lancaster are both coaches who have earned the respect of their nation’s rugby fans, but have not always been immune from criticism for some of their decision-making. For one of them, Saturday will be a reprieve. For the other, a tough few weeks awaits.
England
Lancaster has resisted the temptation for wholesale changes which, for the most part, is the right call – last week was England’s first game since June and there was always going to be a certain element of rustiness. He does, however, need a response from several of the players he has shown faith in for the past couple of years.
Video credit: Sportsbeat
Tom Wood, Danny Care and Owen Farrell are all Lancaster favourites, and have borne the brunt of the criticism. Wood was hugely ineffective with ball in hand and needs to step that side of his game up in the face of the South Africans’ physicality, while Care and Farrell’s kicking game simply has to be better. England were hamstrung by their inability to exit their own half against New Zealand, and the Springboks will be similarly ruthless if given that much territory.
The centre partnership – always the focus of great speculation – remains the same and while Eastmond and Barritt did not let the side down last week, they will hope to have more front foot ball to play off and show what they can do in attack. Barritt can be unfairly pigeon-holed as a one-dimensional, defence-minded player, but he could do with a couple of line-breaks or a touch of flair to disprove this refrain.
South Africa
Meyer, unlike Lancaster, has pulled the trigger and made five changes to the side that lost so disappointingly in Dublin last weekend. Given they are at the end of the season and have a much better idea of where they are as a team, this is not surprising.
The half-backs took a battering against Ireland and that is reflected in Cobus Reinach and Pat Lambie coming in for Francois Hougaard and Handré Pollard. Hougaard and Pollard failed to control the game in tough conditions last weekend, but game management is not really what Reinach and Lambie are famed for either, so they will be hoping the rain stays away at Twickenham tomorrow.
Elsewhere Adriaan Strauss comes in at hooker for Bismarck du Plessis, which will not weaken the side at all such is the Cheetahs’ captain’s fine form. Two World Cup winners in the form of Schalk Burger and JP Pietersen also come into the starting line-up, just to add to the core of experience that runs through this Springbok side.
All eyes on
For the home side there is one man that needs a big performance more than any other. The old criticism of Owen Farrell – that he stands too deep in attack – has reared its head again, and he needs a performance in which he proves he can do more than simply kick his goals. With George Ford champing at the bit for a start, and a proven playmaker who can attack the gainline, this need becomes ever more acute. Jonny May showed what he can do when given clean ball in attack last weekend, but his influence faded as those inside him failed to deliver him any more attacking opportunities. This starts with the fly-half, and with Anthony Watson similarly hungry for action on his debut, Farrell must distribute better this weekend.
One of two Springboks nominated for the IRB Player of the Year award, Duane Vermuelen has been quite literally unstoppable at times this season. He tends to view defenders as little more than speed-bumps, and while England’s one on one defence was largely good last weekend they will need to step it up to a new level to stop this man. If England do not improve their gain-line effectiveness when forwards carry the ball, too, Vermuelen will certainly show them up as he rarely fails to make metres when carrying.
Prediction
It’s a tricky one. South Africa were fairly awful last weekend and there will be a backlash at Twickenham – the standards they set themselves will not allow them to be that bad again. England were actually quite good for forty minutes against New Zealand, something that seems to have been forgotten in the deluge of criticism that they have come in for after their second half performance.
They will have analysed where they went wrong and worked hard to iron out the errors. One thing they simply have to improve is the effectiveness of their ball carriers. Where they miss the likes of Tuilagi and Tom Youngs is their ability to keep pumping their legs and making metres once contact has been taken. Too often England players just fall to the floor when tackled. If they can improve that, Farrell should be able to stand flatter much more comfortably and they can secure a win this weekend – just. England by 3.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
I would also go for England but South Africa’s record of 16 wins from 17 games with Walsh at the whistle cannot be ignored. Walsh has always been against England and in a close game with a lot of scrums and penalties that may change the balance
Arrrgghh…I didn’t realise its Walsh
Saffers by 10 then
Ha ha. Walsh. The perfect setup for England – win and they were brill, lose and it was Steve Walsh again.
That is not the purpose I am only mentioning facts, SA mostly win with Walsh and England mostly loose. Doesn’t mean it will be a poor ref but statistics cover SA on this one
Or .. Walsh mostly refs games in which Eng are the poorer of the two teams and SA are the better? Stats don’t tell the whole story. For example – I’m sure the ABs record under Nigel Owens is amazing and Italy’s isn’t. Doesn’t mean he is biased towards one or the other.
It’s not just a fact. A fact is just the raw nums. You added “Walsh has always been against England” which is explicitly saying he will ref anti-English. Whining about the ref before a ball has even been kicked.
If I had the time (and if someone paid me – I’m not so sad I’d do it for free) I’d like to tot up all the results for England games that Walsh had reffed and compare those to their results under other refs
I wonder what it would show?
Unbridled paranoia?
All the refs have not the same style and Rugby is sometimes about interpretations especially with scrums and forward battles. Let me rephrase it: The way Walsh is whistling is not a good fit for the way England is playing :) And don’t compare NZ with italy in your previous example but two nations with a similar level such as England and SA. Ref is part of the game Poite was not helping SA last week it goes in both directions I just feel it will be more in SA favour this time. Let’s see and hope we will not have a boring kicking game
Paranoia? Walsh has been banned for being anti English, so it’s not completely unfounded.
I have seen Walsh ref England fairly, and that’s not restricted to when we win, but it is few and far between. It tends to be after he’s had stick from a previous performance. Here’s hoping the “clarification” sought after Wales 2013 6n will keep him honest.
Wales 2013 6n win? Thought we’d get there in the end.
Now whose paranoid?
Ha. Possibly
Your last point is very much a valid one – but not one that just affects England. To my mind, it affects the whole of the N Hemisphere. Too often the forwards fall to the ground when tackled like a sack of spuds
Totally in contrast to the S Hemisphere (and not just the big 3 but the Pacific Islanders as well) who never seem to accept that they have been tackled and plough on regardless
Also, the English forwards need to be hitting the line at speed and not taking the ball whilst static. The difference between them and the Kiwi forwards last week was immense – especially when close to the try line. England forwards standing still were easily stopped and/or driven backwards – Kiwi forwards at pace were taking 2/3 tacklers to bring them down, opening up holes elsewhere.
“Too often the forwards fall to the ground when tackled like a sack of spuds” – this is a really good point and seems to be a coaching thing from a young age. We play a lot of teams who actually go into tackles pointing at the ground. The idea seems to be that the tackle is coming so get into some sort of rugby league shape ready to recycle for the next phase. It takes us ages to get into the boys the old fashioned “pump your legs” mantra. Tricky balance I suppose. Ireland have really worked holding up (I refuse to use the modern “choke tackle” phrase as if they invented the idea) into their tactics so some teams counteract it by ensuring a recycle is ready.
Where the top end SH players outdo us is in knowing when/how to turn trying to bust a tackle into recycling. Split second timing and control needed.
Couldn’t agree more Brighty – I think it is a coaching thing around presenting and recycling the ball.
A fine example of a N Hemisphere player who doesn’t often do this is Hibbard – and as a result he makes some destructive carries
But yes knowing when to try and break the tackle and when not to is the real skill
It’s all eyes on Danny Care for me. Care took on a lot of play making responsibility in the 6N, kept defences guessing and got Farrell moving forwards onto the ball which resulted in his best performances for England.
If not we’ll remain in the situation where Farrell can’t even see the gain line due the curvature of the earth, Eastmond will get nothing to work with and everyone receiving the ball will be static because everything is being done so far behind the gain line.
I’m more hopeful of a win than confident of one …. Boks to beat us in an arm wrestle with England not doing enough to breach their defences. SA by 5. Followed by more talk of “positives”, “learnings”, “valuable experiences”, “young players doing well”, “lots of good players watching at home” and “gaps closing”.
‘Farrell can’t even see the gain line due the curvature of the earth’ – made me laugh out loud.
I’m quietly confident about an England win – the Boks were worked out last week, but all the talk has been about poor execution rather than a naive gameplan. The optimist in me says that England should be able to work them out too.
“can’t even see the gain line due the curvature of the earth” gosh i can’t stop laughing, I may steal this one!
Feeling very pessimistic as an England fan, and that was before I knew Walsh was reffing. Hopefully he’ll be on best behaviour this close to a world cup in England.
The point about a backlash has been well made, but mostly iro SA. However with Meyer making so many changes might there be a risk that it dilutes the reaction to the loss, as a proportion of the team was not responsible for it?
Also what odds a try less draw? Would postpone the stay of execution for both coaches.
An old style 3-3 arm wrestle in the mud and pouring rain? You don’t often get games like that any more!
True. It’s more likely to be 15-15!
I’d also like to see a bit of initiative from SL. Do something the opposition doesn’t expect.
If we are chasing the game, in stead of like for like subs how about taking Barritt off not Eastmond. Ford and Farrell at 10/ 12 with either May or Eastmond at 13 or wing. What about moving Billy V to 6 so we have both him and Morgan punching holes. Let’s face it this SA isn’t the youngest and that mixture of creativity, power and pace would be the last thing they’d want or expect.
SLs decisions last week we’re both reactive and predictable. Wood was having a poor game for carrying and penalties conceded. Would have been better to take him off IMO.
Massively agree. Sometimes think that SL is far to rigid with his game plan and needs to take it game by game especially when it comes to the subs. Still england by 5
I think anyone can predict SLs subs as he seems to have been revealed as someone who manages by spreadsheet. The phrase “credit in the bank” is a reality for him. I believe he genuinely uses the stats to rate players. His recent “it’s not all about the flash” backs this up – yes, Cips makes breaks and moves but that only scores a 4. Missed tackles is -4 so he’s not as good as Myler who is more of a 2 in the breaks but a 0 in the missed tackles. A bit of a plodding view of rugby.
I have to agree. There was an article just this past week in the Guardian(http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/nov/13/the-breakdown-england-risks-world-cup) about a study done that found all the statistics and analysis forced on professional rugby players today is making them more risk-averse and less instinctive players. In other words, if they come in every Monday and are rated by the coaching staff based on how many tackles they made and how many rucks they hit, they’ll naturally just try to hit those same benchmarks to keep their place in the squad rather than playing the game that’s in front of them. I feel like Lancaster may have gone too far down the analytic rabbithole and selection has suffered as a result.
Yes Wade, I know you score tries that no other English winger can manage ….. but we need to increase the number of rucks you hit before and the average distance of your clearing kicks is too low.
SA by 5. Backlash won’t adequately describe the thunderous way I expect them to come out for this one. I also expect them to avoid the mistakes they made against Ireland, that of thinking they could batter them senseless – instead we’ll see them playing properly.
England look very under powered all over the park, SA will try to bully them upfront. England and SA will win their set piece but SA look like they have more cutting edge in the backrow and in the backs. Let see.
SA by 7
sorry
England may be able to work them out, and play a tactically astute game, but I think the difference will be the SA back row and their power in the carry.
Depressingly SA by 6
doom and gloom guys, doom and gloom. ‘England look very underpowered all over the park’, excuse me? what team are you looking at? id put my money on our pack to go toe to toe with SA’s any day, our front row is pretty enormous and in laws and attwood we have probably our two hardest locks on. vunipola is a match for anyone, even the mighty vermuelen, and one thing you cold never criticise robshaw for is taking a backward step or not smashing someone in the tackle. woods probably my only concern but thats because of his carrying ability.
Brighty, i do love seeing you come on these posts and set us right about our ref whinging, i love it almost as much as i love seeing australia beating wales.
Apparently Steve Walsh was the ref the last time England beat South Africa?!