Bath vs Saracens: Aviva Premiership Final Prediction

Saracens and Bath descend on Twickenham this weekend for what is being billed as a final between two clashing styles. And indeed for proof, you need only look at the way they won their respective semi-finals. Saracens strangled the Saints, smashing them in the pack, while Bath played with all the joie de vivre of a side that has turned midfield running lines into an art form.

So we move to Twickenham for the battle of Saracens’ defence against Bath’s attack. Except, it’s never quite as simple as that, is it?

Bath have made it to the Premiership’s end of season bash for the first time ever; they last won the Premiership title 19 years ago, way before it became the slick product that it is today.

Saracens, by contrast, are veterans of the Twickenham showpiece, starring in their second in a row and third in five years. After losing last year, they have taken a more relaxed tack over the season as a whole, rotating their resources. They have not dominated the league proper as they have for the previous two years – when they finished in first place on both occasions – but here they are, in the final again.

Saracens

Saracens actually scored just two fewer tries than Bath this season, and conceded just three fewer. They would not have made it to the final without a nose for the try-line, and in Dave Strettle they have one of the most in-form try-poachers in the league. Owen Farrell might not fit into the ‘flair’ category of outside half in the same way that his opposite man on Saturday does, but he is dead-eye from the tee and always on point under the fiercest of pressure. And with Alex Goode able to step in at first receiver, they have one of the keenest attacking brains in the country available to them.

The pack, of course, is where Sarries will look to exert their dominance. Maro Itoje’s blistering blossoming into a top quality player has merely added to a pack that is both supremely mobile and relentlessly physical. And if Itoje is the latest man to epitomise this, it is Jacques Burger who has been defining the Saracens game, and terrorising fly-halfs in the meantime, for years.

Bath

Bath’s midfield triangle of Ford, Eastmond and Joseph have revolutionised their attacking game this season, but the strange thing is that it has been through the simplest of formations. Using a diamond set-up, they give the playmaker four options to hit, while at the same time striking doubt into the defenders’ minds about who is going to carry. It is one of the key reasons why Joseph has been so dangerous this year, exploiting every split second of doubt in the minds of the men opposite him.

Their pack may not be as lauded as Saracens’, but it still contains some of the Premiership’s top operators. Stuart Hooper is a leader by example and always wears his heart on his sleeve; there would be no more worthy lifter of the Premiership trophy. Ross Batty at hooker has been enjoying his best season to date in a Bath shirt, usurping Rob Webber as first choice and arguably unlucky not to find himself in the England squad ahead of his teammate. Francois Louw is amongst the foremost loose forwards in the world, and his battle with Jacques Burger will be mouth-watering.

All eyes on

There’s little escaping it if you’re watching on BT Sport; Sam Burgess will be front and centre of everyone’s minds. The centre-come-flanker has steadily grown into the shirt since his move to the blindside, and seems to be improving with every game. He is used to big occasions from his days playing at the highest level of rugby league, and will not be overawed by the occasion at Twickenham. If Mike Ford trusts him to start ahead of the likes of Carl Fearns and Matt Garvey – both supremely consistent performers – then he is clearly doing something right.

Burgess will not be the only man that Stuart Lancaster has his eye on at Twickenham. He will be taking just as keen an interest in the progress of Owen Farrell. The Saracens out-half has had a torrid season in terms of injury, and has been usurped by his opposite man George Ford in the England stakes. Should he outperform the Bath man here, he will certainly give Lancaster and his selection chums something to think about. Farrell is one of the most composed goal-kickers around, and will make sure Bath are punished for any infringements in their own half.

Prediction

Both sides enjoyed under 40% of possession and territory in their semi-final wins, relying on counter-punches to get their respective wins – Saracens through the boot of Farrell and Bath through their free-running counter attacks. Saracens will be no where near as accommodating to Bath’s attacking genius as Leicester were last weekend, while they will be much more accurate in attack. The men from Barnet have become renowned for their defensive prowess, and that will undoubtedly be key against the likes of Ford, Eastmond, Joseph et al, but in the wide expanses of Twickenham, expect Alex Goode to get his jinking running style going and put Wyles and Strettle in space. It should be some game.

This Bath side are on the up, and they will continue to get better. The fact is, though, that they are immensely raw when it comes to the business end of the season. A final in front of a packed out Twickenham is a unique occasion and one in which Saracens simply have more experience. In a game that will doubtless be so close, that could make the difference. Saracens by 3.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images