Having taken into account all previous upsets, this game has to be considered a one-sided one. As nervous as the major nations are about the prospect of a humbling from a tier two side, Australia can be confident that Uruguay, the world’s 19th ranked team, will be powerless to stop them. The Aussies defeated Fiji competently if not dominantly and with just five days between that game and Uruguay, Michael Cheika will opt to rest many of his marquee players. Thankfully they have plenty of strength in depth to call upon.

Uruguay have won a single game at each of their appearances at the RWC (in 1999 and 2003) but it is unlikely that they will be eyeing this one as a must-win. The South Americans competed for three-quarters of the Wales clash, leading 6-0 early on, and will look to bring the same dogged defence that they showed in that game.

AUSTRALIA

The Fiji match showed the good and bad sides of this Australian team. The good was their tactical awareness, zeroing in on the line-out defence of Fiji and making them pay consistently, while the bad was the inability to close Fiji out of the game late on. The apparent ignorance regarding four-try bonus points meanwhile is inexplicable.

For the match on Sunday, just the one player survives from two days ago. Dean Mumm captains the side and wears number four. Apart from that it’s all change and subsequently the Australian game-plan is likely to be the only thing in common with the Fiji match. While it might be easy to consider this as a second-string Australia side, there is class peppered throughout the side, especially in the half-backs with Nick Phipps and Quade Cooper. Elsewhere, Kurtley Beale, Henry Speight and Joe Tomane are going to be itching for a chance to stretch their legs.

In the forwards, Sean McMahon wins his fifth cap alongside Ben McCalman and Wycliff Palu, the latter of whom is just recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him from appearing against Fiji. Will Skelton will receive a lot of attention in the second row, partly through Uruguayan defence, but also through scrutiny from world press. Skelton is a true giant but has not put it all together on an international stage quite yet. James Slipper’s head injury from Wednesday means that Toby Smith starts at prop.

One to watch: Matt Toomua

With lots of exciting talent in the Australian side, I think it is the Brumbies inside centre who demands the eyes of the world. He has a fair haul of caps at 26 and his defensive stoutness combined with his playmaking ability and useful boot make him a versatile weapon for Michael Cheika. Toomua is in a good position to wrestle the no12 jersey from Matt Giteau by the end of the tournament, if the elder man doesn’t improve on his performance against Fiji. Surrounded as he is by electric runners, Toomua should anticipate plenty of opportunities to put his teammates through gaps with his soft handling.

URUGUAY

Pablo Lemoine makes five changes to the side that shipped 54 points against Wales on September 20th. The matchday 23 is the youngest Uruguay have ever fielded, with an average age of 25 years and 33 days. Contributing to this is hooker German Kessler, who makes his first start at the Rugby World Cup at 21 years of age. He’s joined by Mateo Sanguinetti and Mario Sagario in the front row and Leandro Leivas comes in on the wing, also making his RWC debut.

Uruguay were yet another of the tier two nations that have approached games with a great deal of passion and aggression. They tackled like men possessed in the early stages of the Wales game and the kicking of Berchesi had them leading at one point. Their ability to force penalties at the breakdown won them points against Wales and that is something they will hope to replicate against Australia, with the threat of Hooper and Pocock removed.

Realistically, the best Uruguay can hope for is to compete for the duration and hopefully get some points on the board. It is not out of the question for the South Americans to score their first try of the tournament, but ultimately a win is not on the cards.

One to Watch: Agustin Ormaechea

The son of Uruguay great Diego Ormaechea, the scrum-half plays for Stade Montois and will hope to dictate the pace of the game. Uruguay’s best tactic for victory would be to replicate Japan’s game plan of playing up-tempo, back-driven rugby and generally call upon the forwards to recycle the ball at break-neck speed. Ormaechea and his side could seek to counteract Australia’s inevitable dominance with astute tactical kicking and Ormaechea can lead this from the back of the breakdown. If Uruguay are able to pin the Wallabies back continually, they could limit the damage that the two time World-champions are able to do.

PREDICTION

If two phrases are identified as key ones from this article, they would be ‘hope’ and ‘damage limitation’, and funnily enough, they don’t apply to Australia. Michael Cheika can be confident of a win, with his so-called ‘second string’ side eager to prove themselves. Lemoine and Uruguay meanwhile will hopefully bring the same attitude with which they approached the Wales game and at the very least make it tricky for Australia early on. Cheika might not be clear about the bonus point rules, but Australia should safely secure one come Sunday. Australia by 55

By Fraser Kay (@fraserkay)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images