Both England and Ireland lost their last warm-up game, to France and Wales respectively – results that pile an awful lot of pressure onto this weekend’s crunch match at Twickenham. Despite what the coaches and players say about the result not being as important as the performance, neither side will want to enter the World Cup on the back of two losses. Winning breeds winning, and whichever side does so this weekend will take confidence into the pool stages; for the loser, there will be only self-doubt.
England
England make five changes to the side that lost in Paris with the set piece an obvious area that has been targeted for improvement. Geoff Parling replaces Joe Launchbury and will be in charge of all things lineout-related, while Tom Wood enters the back-row in place of James Haskell. What England lose in power from Launchbury and Haskell, they gain in lineout prowess.
Ben Morgan starts at number eight and needs to shake off the rust quickly, in order to repay Lancaster’s faith in picking him ahead of Nick Easter. The front row trio of Joe Marler, Tom Youngs and Dan Cole will be looking to get their teeth into their Irish counterparts on a pitch that is hopefully a bit more robust than the rug that was the Stade de France turf.
In the back-line, the headline is Brad Barritt’s return to partner Jonathan Joseph. Just as intriguing, however, is George Ford’s performance. After a stuttering showing in Paris, many are calling for Owen Farrell to come back into the starting line-up and given what the coaches have been saying in the media this week, you feel that Ford needs a big performance here to keep Farrell junior at bay.
Sam Burgess will get his second taste of international rugby from the bench, while in the back three it is Jonny May that partners Anthony Watson on the wing ahead of Jack Nowell – an indication perhaps that Lancaster is leaning towards the Gloucester-man for his World Cup team. May’s unsteadiness under the high ball will be tested thoroughly by Sexton and Murray, the Irish half-backs.
One to watch: Brad Barritt
Somehow, Barritt has managed to make himself seem invincible in the England centres debate. Given that he hasn’t played international rugby since last November, that is quite some feat. Tomorrow he pulls the white shirt back on again, to form what will be England’s first choice centre partnership at the World Cup with Jonathan Joseph. These two have 14 minutes of rugby together under their belts, so again the fact that they are nailed on as the first choice duo is somewhat surprising. Barritt needs a big game, not only with his trademark dogged defence but also in attack. He is not a gifted footballer, and has been picked in the ‘smash-over-the-gainline’ role. It is one he has auditioned for before, but without much success. Up against Robbie Henshaw, a robust individual himself, Barritt will need to be at his physical best.
Ireland
Ireland’s loss to Wales in Dublin last weekend was a rare example of the Joe Schmidt gameplan really wobbling. Johnny Sexton’s radar was worryingly on the blink, and there were some uncharacteristically basic errors. This weekend at Twickenham, a venue at which they have not won in over five years, there can be no such inaccuracies.
Schmidt has named as close to a full strength starting XV as he has at any stage so far in this series of warm-up games. There is a slight curveball at fullback, where Simon Zebo gets a chance to press his claims, and England will have to ensure their own kicking game is on point as the Munsterman loves nothing more than galloping around in open spaces. Dave Kearney’s excellent performance in the Wales loss sees him given another chance on the wing – brilliant under the high ball but perhaps lacking x-factor, he is a Schmidt favourite.
The pack looks strong. Jack McGrath continues to deputise for Cian Healy but has become comfortably accustomed to international rugby and is far from a weak link by now. The giant Devin Toner comes into the second row and will look to cause problems at an English lineout that has wobbled in both games against France. After Iain Henderson’s heroics last weekend, he needs a big game to convince Schmidt he remains the right man to partner Paul O’Connell.
One to watch: Sean O’Brien
Ireland were badly beaten by Wales at the breakdown last weekend, and while the blame cannot always be laid at the openside’s door, there’s no doubting Justin Tipuric comfortably outplayed Jordi Murphy. So, much focus tomorrow will be on the returning O’Brien. In a similar vein to England, Ireland to do not employ a true ‘fetcher’, but rather rely on the likes of O’Connell and Best to lend a hand at the breakdown. This should allow O’Brien to operate in a freer role in which he can get his hands on the ball more often and carry as effectively as we know he can. He’ll still have to keep an eye on the breakdown, however, as it is an area that England will no doubt target after last weekend.
Prediction
It is genuinely very difficult to pick a winner in this one, but what is certain is that much will come down to the performances of the respective outside halves. Johnny Sexton was the definition of rusty last weekend and his usually pinpoint boot, upon which the very essence of Joe Schmidt’s success has been built, was completely out of whack. When Ireland beat England in Dublin earlier this year, they suffocated the English with exactly that tactic. Their only try came from Robbie Henshaw taking a high ball ahead of Alex Goode. As for England, George Ford must prove the performance against France was nothing more than a blip. He tried hard to ignite the back-line but had little success, either running too laterally or not threatening the defence as we know he can. An improved performance from the pack in front of him would help. In the end, home advantage swings it in my mind. England by 3.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
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If England can’t handle the pressure here, then I have little hope for the games against Wales and Australia in the pool, never mind a potential semi-final against the same opposition.
Interesting that Dewi Morris on Sky reckons this is the England team to play Fiji as well, I wouldn’t be so sure. I would imagine that we will see a few changes for Fiji, and use a power game with Launchbury, Haskell and Burgess; so Parling, Wood and Barritt are effectively getting the first chance to stake their claims for the Wales game in three separate “shoot-outs”.
In addition, Morgan, Ford and May all have something to prove. I would imagine if we see any of those starting against Fiji, it may be an indication that they haven’t made the starting line-up for the Wales game.
The other 9 players I’d say are fairly sure to start against Wales, and it’s just whether Lancaster decides to rest any of them up against Fiji.
Interesting for me is that Jamie George got the nod over Rob Webber and Kieran Brookes got the call over David Wilson. I’m guessing Lancaster wants to have another look at his young guns over his tried and tested, but Brookes has looked good as an impact sub for England before and George has had a good season for Saracens and probably offers more around the park than Webber, so it will be interesting to see how those two get on (can you tell I’m a front row?!)
This game is going to be like a mad-man’s shit – all over the place. It takes time to knit a good poo and JS knows that – think Eng will dump a big one this weekend, desperate to win. I’ll be happy with an Irish pyrrhic loss than a pyrrhic victory.
DDD
You’d rather lose than win? Pyrrhic or non- pyrrhic. Maybe if JS thinks along similar lines Ireland will do just that?
Fortunately for Ireland, I don’t see Schmidt thinking anything of the sort, so we’ll see.
Well doh! yes! Pyrrhic being the operative word. I’d rather a pyrrhic loss with the potential to build than a pyrrhic victory (losing Sexton, SO’B and Murray to the floundering Orcs).
Never said JS would think of throwing a game but I think there is a Blue Whale on the horizon. Which would you prefer a bunch of Orcs or a Blue Whale?
Ireland by 3 but worried about the cost – Alun Wyn Jones nearly blew his chances by busting a gut in a match that will be forgotten in three weeks time by everyone in the world except Brighty
DDD
“Ireland’s loss to Wales in Dublin last weekend was a rare example of the Joe Schmidt gameplan really wobbling”
The other example being the 6 nations then? Ire can be neutered if you go straight at their strengths – the kick and chase and the “gamesmanship” at the ruck. We’ve done it twice in a row now. It takes an almighty effort – you have to tackle like demons, be superior in the air and have awesome backrow players – but it reveals that Schmidt isn’t the chocolate deep blue genius that some in Ireland claim. They play pretty straightforward “run it if it’s on, kick it if it isn’t” rugby all executed by two fantastic halfbacks who really know how to maximise that type of play. Sean O’Brien can be great (but usually totally neutered by Wales’ Lydiate – last world cup showed that) and O’Connel has a Martin Johnson strength of will.
I see England winning this by less than a score. Kicks, ferocious defence, scrum power and the abject fear of losing at home just before the WC should be enough to get the job done.
“Abject fear” drove Wales last weekend – they played their socks off and very nearly lost.
Can see them being dumped down the WC at the WC. Speaking of neutered balls – Warren the plank has finished knitting his poo and it will become looser from now on – their lies his downfall – Schmidt the chocolate deep blue genius is still knitting.
DDD
Brighty the piece you want to cut out is this bit —
“Can see them being dumped down the WC at the WC. RWC Warm-Ups: England vs Ireland Prediction – September 4, 2015 Jamie ”
Just making it easier for you to cut and paste in a couple of weeks!!!
PEW PEW Shots Fired!!!!!!
DDD
Ha, yes – well, if we beat the 2nd best team in the world by being scared of losing then I will take that!
The “nearly lost” came from us totally slackening off in the last 20, taking a lot of boys off. Of course, I have to concede that (as I have been told umpteen times since by Irish fans) Schmidt is such a genius that he managed to convince his boys to lose last weekend by not playing at full tilt. He had to apologise to Pauly of course but the tactical genius could see that delib losing last weekend was for the best. Wouldn’t want to reveal all of those amazing plays he has so early. Like the one where Sexton kicks it across the field. Or kicks it up really high. Or kicks it long down the pitch. Or kicks it into touch….
I also see us not faring very well in the WC – if only we were playing Ireland I’d be much, much more confident of getting out of the group.
Brighty – “slackening off” unfortunate term – the diarrhoea has started already?
Mark my words – Ireland will be a different consistency come the WC!
DDD
I agree with you. Their record shows that they are a totally different consistency come the world cup.
As you have brought up consistency – – – You have probably guessed I love Guinness but it does effect the consistency of ones stool…. to this end I have a Guinness stick and anytime there is a Guinness turd (I like to call them Warren G’s) floating in the toilet, I poke them with the stick – otherwise they never go away – are you with me – eh? I know you take offence and get tired of it when I refer to the Plank as the Plank so i’ll relent – the Floating Turd from now on.
DDD
I guess there’s a first time for everything. I must admit Schmidt has seemed to cure Ireland of their mentla block about being favourites, with 2 6n wins, but I really think they are way to reliant on Sexton, and he can’t play every minute of every match.
I think England will look to contain Ireland, hence the selection of Barritt. Ireland are so dependent on Sexton and Murray that provided England are in touch by 60 mins, when Schmidt will look to take them off and protect them, then England will look to win the game in the last 20 (sound familiar ) using the monstrous ball carrying bench of Mako, Brookes, George, Launchbury, Billy and Burgess.
Of course if Lawes can get one of his trademark hits on Sexton early doors, we might not have to wait for England to attack, as the order might go out for Sexton to sit deeper in order to be better protected. This will make the irish kick chase less effective.
I feel England need to win this more than Ireland, as Schmidt has muchos credit in the bank with fans and media alike. A home loss at “Fortress Twickenham” would be disastrous for England.
Hadn’t really considered the England bench but you’re right, that is quite some heavy brigade to bring on late in the game.
Loath to agree with Dewi Morris, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this as the team to face Fiji either.
Barring any injuries, or dramatic losses of form, I would guess that only Morgan and May (of the starting XV) are really “on trial”.
Presumably we will see Launchbury at some point, so there may well be a close eye kept on his lineout work, and energy levels.
This is a big game for Tom Youngs. I’ll be honest, I have defended him to death on our malfunctioning line out – with explanations of poor calling, unfamiliar combinations and fewer jumpers. Well there isn’t really an excuse now… He’s got his (former) Leicester team mate (widely recognised as the best in the premiership at this) and an extra jumper in Tom Wood.
Dear God Tom, don’t let me down…
You managed it on the Lions tour?? I am worried about Toner and O’Connell… If ever there was better combo at stealing ball on the oppositions throw, I don’t remember them.
Lets be fair, this whole England and twickenham thing has been dead for a few years now. Ireland will take them to the dogs, the english don’t have the talent to compete at the top, comparatively poor aeiral abilities will lose them this.
Haven’t lost to a NH team since 2012 6 nations, but yeh, we are a real mess at home.
This is getting really tedious now. Our home form has been good for a while now, and as Jacob points out, no NH home loss since SL’s first season in charge (and even that was close)
England have lost 6 of 22 home games under Bomber. The only two losses that were against sides not in the top 2 were back in 2012. The biggest home loss was by 8 (NZ), the average margin is just over 4. I think the Twickenham factor still has its role.
If you are interested on the potential impact on the IRB World Rankings of the match at Twickenham tomorrow, watch this:
I just feel Ireland will go into this with a more confident mindset as they are the more settled experienced side and will have the greater belief they can win.Due to chopping and changing we have a less settled team and uncertainty is greater in the head.I think Ireland will squeak home for these reasons but England might just surprise me!
Brighty,I thoroughly enjoy your verbal sparing with Dingdongdenny,who tends to lose,but with a smile.almost.
Gonna throw out my prediction, Ireland by 4. Very close game, i’d love to see them win by more but don’t see it happening. I do think they’ll be playing full on though as they don’t want to go into the WC having dropped out of top5 in the world. Small win for them.
England world cup winning team
1 dan cole
2 dylan hartly
3 marco vunipola or corbisiro
4 courtny laws
5 ben morgan
6 wood
7 Stephon armitage
8 billy vunipola
9 danny care
10 danny cipriani
11 dillon armitage
12 manu tuilagi
13 sam burges
14 watson
15 mike brown
This team will be world beaters, Sad that Stuert Lancaster and the English rugby pundits are anti talent. What are they thinking. If loyalty can promote rugby in England by getting knoked out in the quarters, with the stupid england team. Imagine winning the rugby world cup with the above squal what it will do to rugby in England. More people will start to play. More viwership. More money. Stuart Lancaster and the stupid England rugby pundits are not only anti talent they are anti rugby. Clive Woodward is the only sane rugby pundit in england. no wonder he won a rugby world cup!
Clive. Is that you?
yes thats me. wait till the fat lady sings. dont be fooled by the rocks that you got….