NEW ZEALAND

As usual, this championship is theirs to lose. It’s not that they are supermen – Rugby is still 15 on 15 on any given day – but the Kiwis have been playing at such a high tempo all year. The difference in reaction times is so much more honed. All other things being equal, the game in this era is won and lost with the quality and timeliness of the offload which only Kiwis have mastered on a consistent basis.

New Zealand’s forwards are solid and one can pick practically any combination. Back row is exceptional with all the requisite skills covered, including the ‘x’ factor in Ardie Savea. At scrum-half it should be TJ Perenara as he will cause the opposition 9 and 10 to stay honest and focused. Barrett is the form fly half period, but the Centres are the weak link.

I’m a fan of Malakai Fekitoa but there was something missing in his play at 12 this season. Ryan Crotty’s a solid workhorse. George Moala should be more dangerous than he has proven this year, but he is now injured along with SBW. I reckon Hansen will opt more for defensive qualities rather than attack here. Take your pick. Fekitoa and Crotty for the first game against Australia.

Israel Dagg at 15 only because Smith can play wing and Naholo will likely start on other wing. I think Hansen could have done so much better and more with the inclusion of the form player of this year – Damien Mckenzie. What a talent and he brings so many options as full back. I think he had one bad game where he was just too greedy, but in all the others he was sublime. Inserting himself into the backline at will and either creating overlaps or scoring himself. And he can kick. If I were king I would let Smith take outside centre and let Mckenzie go full back.

AUSTRALIA

Wallabies fans need not be so dejected. The recent 3-0 loss to England was upsetting, but there was so much to like, and if you looked at the stats you could never have guessed that the Aussies lost. Nearly every stat was in their favour. Personally I would always bet on the team that can be dominant in territory and possession as Australia were, and only an incredible defensive performance from England kept them at bay.

Heading to Sydney for a potential repeat of last year’s Bledisloe cup victory over the All Blacks, Michael Cheika has conscripted five experienced foreign based players to bring a better blend of experience and youth to the side. With a calmer read of opportunities at critical points, maybe the possession and territory stats can be turned into a win.

The trick for Australia to win is controlling 10 with Matt Giteau. The centre axis can win the game, since the All Blacks have some major issues here. For me it should be 12 Kerevi, 13 Folau 15 Hodge. I am a huge fan of Cooper but not for this first game. He’s had too little game time and needs to be on top form to make his ‘x’ factor work.

The Australian Back Row is one of best in world with Pocock, Hooper, Fardy and McMahon. Utilise these properly and you stymie All Blacks’ attack opportunities and and then back up the Aussie centre axis. backup centre axis. But I’m dreaming again because Cheika will play it safe with the wrong tactics.

SOUTH AFRICA

Allister Coetzee has a serious dilemma. Only the Lions have attempted any type of attacking, adventurous and expansive rugby this year. Very few coaches can take players who have shown little in the league and meld them into a cohesive attacking force. Warren Gatland with Wales is the only real example since the game went professional. Add to that Coetzee has not been known for adventurous rugby at the Stormers. It’s sad because SA have the players, and in my opinion they have the best locks and centres.

In the front row one could pick practically any combination and they will perform well. At lock any two out of the four will be brilliant, but how do you truly create that much more opportunity and advantage from guys who are 6 ft 8 and 18 stone? Lineouts and scrums are getting fewer in number, not more.

In the back row, Jaco Kriel is world class and Warren Whiteley pretty good. Francois Louw and Duane Vermeulen have comparative limited skills, dulled by playing Northern Hemisphere last season. Francois Hougaard is solid and did well when brought into the Worcester team last year, but Faf de Klerk has more ‘x’ factor.

Fly halves are the weakest link because of injuries to Lambie and Pollard, but Elton Jantjies has impressed for the Lions. It’s the centres where I think the Boks can dominate, but won’t. No team except Lions have even bothered to use them properly. Damian De Allende and Jesse Kriel are my two favourites and will cause damage if given the ball.

Wings are good and one can pick any combination and the result will be about the same. I like Habana. He is always looking for work, when allowed. Goosen at full back may be an inspired selection, but will Coetzee allow him license to insert himself into backs on attack? For too many years South Africa have played a fairly one dimensional, ‘run them over’ style which I can’t see changing too much under Coetzee.

There will be a success here and there and hopes will rise that ‘this’ is now the turning point, or that ‘finally’ you’ve found the right combinations, only to be dashed at the next game. This style of rugby will always bring a win every now and again, but not with the same consistency as All Blacks.

ARGENTINA

What a disappointment the Jaguares have been this year. From 4th in World Cup, albeit from a weak pool, to losing so many games in Super Rugby this year – including barely beating a 2nd XV Lions team at home.

Argentina have had standout players such as Creevy, Lavinini, Desio, Isa, Senatore. Landajo, Sanchez, Cordero and Tuculet but they will still struggle. Playing for their country always makes them fierce competitors, but it is hard to see who won’t get maximum points from them either home or away.

My predicted points table:
New Zealand – 24/25 pts
Australia – 16/17 pts
SA – 15/16 pts
Arg – 2/3 pts

Peter Evans is Brit47 in SuperBru, and a Brit living in Houston TX for last 30 yrs. He played mostly union, and league for Fulham RLFC for a year. Now a ref and coach, he’s started and worked on many programs in Houston with one U19 squad taking 3rd place in Nationals using Southern Hemisphere tactics. And yes, there was a time when even the Boks played a silky, deft, passing game. Pete’s now just a grumpy old flabby fly half cheating death for last 6 yrs and watching from a couch.