Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 16 Predictions

Northampton Saints vs Harlequins

Harlequins are in desperate need of a win after consecutive heavy losses in games in which they really should have been more competitive. The last thing they wanted, then, was a trip away to the champions – just when they are looking in particularly ruthless form. The Saints’ win away at Bath last weekend was a real shot across the bow of the other title hopefuls; they look immensely strong even with several internationals missing. The loss of key figures like Robshaw and Marler has clearly hit Quins hard, and they do not have the calibre of replacement that the Saints do. To make matters worse for the Londoners, Northampton welcome back Tom Wood and Courtney Lawes to the squad, who will add sizeable impact.

It’s been a tough old season for Harlequins, and it isn’t about to get any easier this weekend. Northampton by 12.

London Welsh vs London Irish

This probably ranks as one of the best chances Welsh will have to get a win this season. London Irish clearly already have an eye on next year, having allowed top talent Tom Homer to join Bath before his contract was finished and without having signed a replacement. The problem is, London Welsh seem to have done exactly the same thing with the news breaking this morning that Piri Weepu has left to join Wasps until the end of the season.

It’s likely to be another heavy loss for the Welsh exiles to their Irish counterparts. London Irish by 20.

Leicester Tigers vs Sale Sharks

Before seeing the teamsheets, I had Sale down to win this one. The Sharks have won three on the bounce, including impressive victories over both Northampton and Saracens. The Tigers, meanwhile, may have won four of their last five games, but have failed to score a try in the last five hours of Premiership action. On top of that Freddie Burns was expected to be missing, but his presence on the teamsheet changes matters somewhat. He will be directing a team that welcomes back a wealth of experience in the shape of Brad Thorn and Geoff Parling in the engine room, and with no Danny Cipriani for Sale it changes the complexion of the game. Mike Haley has been a revelation at fullback for the Sharks, but this could be the week the Tigers get to grips with their try-scoring demons.

It’ll be a close game between two teams crammed into the middle of the table, and home advantage could swing it. Leicester by 3.

Saracens vs Newcastle Falcons

This is a game between two sides going in opposite directions. The Falcons have shown remarkable improvements in recent weeks and showed good resolve and no little skill to draw with Wasps last weekend. They won’t be daunted by the artificial surface of Allianz Park, either, given they have the same thing in place at their home ground. Saracens, conversely, seem to have stagnated somewhat this season. Their loss last weekend to Sale was a huge opportunity missed to set themselves apart from the chasing pack; instead, they find themselves squarely in the middle of that pack, and with their top four spot on the line.

Alex Goode’s call-up is a further loss to Sarries, but at home I’d expect them to be good enough to see off a resurgent Newcastle. Saracens by 9.

Exeter Chiefs vs Bath Rugby

Bath badly need a win, to avoid falling into the same trap as they did last season – namely setting the early pace before spectacularly falling out of the play-off spots. They have been comfortable in the top two for the majority of the season, but three losses in their last four has seen them slip back to within reach of the clustered mid table. They change their entire front row for the trip to Sandy Park, with Auterac, Batty and Palma-Newport given the chance to impress. The Chiefs have arrested their own alarming slump with two big wins in their last two games, and will bring plenty of confidence into this one.

This fixture last season produced some breathtakingly good tries in what were horrific conditions. Both sides enjoy playing an open game so we can expect more of the same this weekend, and I can see the Chiefs continuing their good form. Exeter by 5.

Wasps vs Gloucester

Four of the quickest men in the league will be on the same pitch on Sunday afternoon, as Christian Wade and Tom Varndell face off against Jonny May and Charlie Sharples. May in particular will have a point to prove having been dropped from the England squad, and if the ball makes its way to those four then we could be in for some fireworks. Just inside them, though, is Elliot Daly, whose one man show against Newcastle was a joy to watch. The forwards, of course, will also have a say in the match but with neither side renowned for their front five strength, this is one of the few games that could be decided in the backs.

The Ricoh Arena is fast becoming a bit of a fortress for Wasps, and Gloucester’s patchy away form is unlikely to change that. Wasps by 12.

How do you see the weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images