Champions Cup Final: Racing 92 vs Saracens Prediction

This year’s Champions Cup final sees two familiar foes face off in the South of France. Saracens and Racing 92 have played each other five times in European competition, with the men from North London triumphing on every occasion except the first.

Racing, though, are a team on the rise. Jack Lorenzetti’s cheque book has brought them the great and good from across the rugby world – none more so, of course, than a certain Dan Carter. They have been building to this, their first European final.

There is also the small matter of revenge for last year’s final minute loss in the quarter-final, when Marcelo Bosch – the king of cool on a rugby pitch – nervelessly stroked over a monstrous penalty with the last kick of the game. It was a heartbreak for which the Parisians want so badly to atone this Saturday.

RACING 92

The Parisian aristocrats have changed one from team that did the business against Leicester in the semi-final, captain Dimitri Szarzewski returning from injury. In both that game and the quarter-final win over Toulon, they have raced into a 10-0 lead – spookily, they won both games 19-16. So, starting in a similarly quick manner will be key.

The key men are their half-backs. While Dan Carter steals the headlines, and is undoubtedly a class act, Maxime Machenaud in the number nine shirt has been playing some of the best rugby of his career. Whether sniping or delivering, he has taken the right option at the right time, and done so accurately. Saracens have spoken this week about not just focusing on Carter, and they are absolutely right because if they do, Machenaud will hurt them.

There is danger throughout the backline, from the directness of Dumoulin to the fleet-footedness of Brice Dulin and Joe Rocokoko. Johan Goosen in the centre might be the classiest player on the pitch, able to glide through gaps and pick perfect passes in equal measure.

Up front, the ball-carrying of Ben Tameifuna will be a handful for the Sarries defence, while Luke Charteris is the one Welshman that has made the most success from his time in France. His lineout work and ability to break up a maul will be key.

SARACENS

Sarries name the same team that did for Wasps in the semi-final. They have won every game in Europe so far this season, an astonishing record that is testament to their consistency this campaign. With the heartbreak of the 2014 loss still in the minds of a lot of the squad, can they go one better this time?

Looking at the line-up, there are fewer star names than their Parisian counterparts. Those names that do stand out are mostly up front, where the Krutoje partnership in the engine room continues to go from strength to strength. Maro Itoje’s jet-heeled prowess at the lineout and his ability at the breakdown, coupled with Kruis’ general physicality and insatiable work rate, make them a uniquely excellent partnership. In the front row, Mako Vunipola and Schalk Brits provide brilliant ball-carrying options in slightly different ways, while Petrus du Plessis is immovable at scrum-time.

In the backs, Alex Goode and Chris Ashton will hunt space all over the pitch, not just in their assigned areas. They work hard to follow the ball and get themselves on it whenever possible. Brad Barritt’s midfield anchoring has long been a hallmark of this side, but Duncan Taylor’s emergence as a brilliant running threat has been a joy this season.

Much will depend, of course, on the halfbacks. Richard Wigglesworth falls into the solid, rather than spectacular, category of number nines, but do not underestimate the importance of his box-kicking and game management. Outside him Owen Farrell has evolved his game this season to the extent that the old accusations of conservatism just don’t hold any water at all any more. He will relish going toe to toe with the original all-round fly-half, Dan Carter.

Head to head: Chris Masoe vs Billy Vunipola

The impetus big Billy Vunipola gives Saracens is crucial to their attacking strategy, so it will be intriguing to see whether Racing deploy Masoe in a man-marking role as they did against Leicester and Fonua. Admittedly, Fonua is not in Vunipola’s league, but Masoe’s raw physicality and the timing of his hits completely ruled out one of Leicester’s main ball carriers. Do the same to Vunipola, and Saracens will be forced to find a plan B.

PREDICTION

No side has ever won European club rugby’s top prize with a 100% win record (Leinster came closest but drew their opening game back in 2012). But strangely, it is this slightly oxymoronic record that will give Saracens hope. They have swept all before them thus far, so why expect to start losing now?

Whoever starts fastest, you feel, will win. Racing have been ahead early in both knockout games so far, and have gone on to win. Saracens are probably the best team in Europe at defending a lead, but aren’t necessarily the best chasers (although they did so in the semi-final).

Racing have the stellar names; they look a better side on paper. Rugby is not played on paper. Saracens have been relentlessly consistent (the Six Nations blip, when over half of their first choice team was missing, notwithstanding) this season, and if they retain their heads and the accuracy – especially at the set piece – which typifies their game, they can win this. Saracens by 7.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images