Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 9 Predictions

This weekend sees most players released back to their respective PRO12 clubs from international action with the exception of Wales who have one last Autumn Test against South Africa. Will that disadvantage the Regions? Or will their sides, already shorn of their star talent these last few weeks, be the more settled and cohesive? Furthermore, who’s to say that the returning internationals will be thrown back into the fray so soon after an exhausting Autumn Test series anyway? There are a lot of variables to consider this weekend.

Cardiff Blues vs Benetton Treviso

This one is tough to call. Both teams have had poor seasons thus far with Cardiff edging Treviso by virtue of having one win and a draw, to Treviso’s solitary draw. In terms of form, that Blues victory came at the very start of the season and must seem like an age ago now, whereas Treviso’s draw was just last weekend against Leinster. History-wise there is not much separating the teams, one win each and a draw last time they met. Cardiff are still lacking players due to Wales’ last test but the Treviso coaching staff have opted to more or less stick with the side that played last weekend. Again, not much separating the sides there. The one thing left to consider is that Cardiff have won the last four times these sides have met in Wales. I’m hoping that will count for something here as I’m backing them to extend that streak.

Prediction: Cardiff by 12

Munster vs Ulster

The teams placed second and third face each other in what looks to be the game of the weekend. Both sides welcome back returning internationals with O’Donnell, Jones and Kilcoyne all named on Munster’s bench and Robbie Diack on Ulster’s, while Rory Best leads them. Both sides are also on a great run of form having won their last four games this season. Ulster did ‘the double’ on their southern rivals last year and will be looking for rare back-to-back wins in Limerick, a feat not achieved since the 90s. Munster will, no doubt, be looking to avenge those results, especially in Limerick. Home advantage isn’t something Munster have enjoyed all that much this year, suffering their only losses of this season at “Fortress Thomond”. It’s also worth remembering that Munster’s last win was against Newport whereas Ulster broke Ospreys’ perfect season with a win in Belfast, so it’s not like they were playing like-for-like teams last weekend. I’ve a sneaky suspicion that Ulster could well pull this off, but given how Munster raise their game depending on the opposition (especially in that Leinster game a few weeks back), I think they’ll get through here.

Prediction: Munster by 5

Zebre vs Edinburgh

Again this is tough to call, especially with no team-sheets in front of me. History favours the visitors who’ve won three of the last four encounters with Zebre, but it was this very fixture last year that saw the Italians triumphant. After their shock win over Ulster, Zebre succumbed to the narrowest of losses to Ospreys and it did briefly look like they might have finally turned things around but their recent spate of losses by 17, 15 and 40 points put paid to that notion. Those last two results were on the road though, and Zebre are tougher at home. Edinburgh’s position two rungs up the league table above Zebre, and their dispatching of both teams in between themselves and the Italian side, means I’m backing the visitors this weekend.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 5

Leinster vs Ospreys

The second of our big games this weekend sees fifth-placed Leinster (yes, you read that right) hosting top of the table Ospreys. Leinster let themselves down last weekend against Treviso in a game they should have won. In some respects they were lucky to come away with the draw, as Treviso’s kicker missed the last conversion of the game. Meanwhile, the Ospreys’ perfect season came to a end in Belfast. In fairness, having so many players unavailable to them through international call-ups and injury meant that getting a win over Ulster was always going to be a tough ask. To my mind that will probably be the key factor this weekend as well, especially with Wales still playing. Given a depleted Ospreys side facing off against a wounded Leinster looking to restore some pride and possibly boosted by returning players, who would you back? Exactly.

Prediction: Leinster by 14

Connacht vs Llanelli Scarlets

Connacht absolutely destroyed Zebre last weekend with a 40 point win over the Italian side, the second biggest in the club’s history. Still this season’s most improved side, they’re riding high on being undefeated at home domestically and in Europe. Scarlets currently sit just one spot below them but have beaten them in their last five encounters, and so, despite not winning on the road since February of this year, will come to the Sportsground with little fear. They also handed Glasgow their second defeat of the season last weekend, but since Glasgow provide the main bulk of the Scottish national side, this tells us very little really. Ordinarily I’d think twice about backing the men from the West but this season Connacht are silencing all their critics.

Prediction: Connacht by 7

Glasgow vs Newport Gwent Dragons

Glasgow’s loss last weekend surprised many, and so they’ll no doubt want to bounce back now that their international stars return to the club this weekend. Given the vastly different form both sides have being displaying this season this game should be a no-brainer. Glasgow should run away with it, but that was my thinking last year when the Dragons won this particular fixture (and indeed achieved a double over Glasgow, much to the surprise of everyone). The telling fact about the Dragons’ win here last season however is that they haven’t won on the road since! Unless Gregor Townsend names some strange experimental side, the hosts should win here, and win well.

Prediction: Glasgow by 29

How do you see the weekend going?

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images