The biggest, most-hyped, most attended, most expensive and potentially most competitive World Cup so far is finally upon us. We are told that this could be the best of all. But what ingredients would need to be added to the pot to make this tournament bubble up into a tastier concoction than anything which has gone before? If this does indeed and up being a peerless rugby celebration, what might we be looking back on in 6 short weeks’ time?
Shocks and Surprises
Everybody loves an underdog. We all remember the big shocks: Western Samoa beating Wales in 1991 and 1999; Argentina turning over Ireland in 1999 and France twice in 2007; Tonga beating France in 2011.
But we remember them because they are so spectacularly rare. None of England, South Africa, New Zealand or Australia have lost in a World Cup to anyone outside the old Five Nations and Tri-Nations. The fact that 2 of the biggest ‘upsets’ involved 3-time finalists France beating New Zealand shows that examples of the minnows beating the mighty are thin on the ground.
So where might we go hunting for a David to topple a Goliath this time around? Fiji could throw a major cat among the pigeons in the Group of Death – they play Wales only 4 days after Wales take on England. And what price an opening night upset like Argentina over France in 2007? Elsewhere Samoa will have their eye on Scotland, only 2 places above them in the rankings. Other than that, we may have to wait for one of the big guns to be toppled by a marginally less big gun for anything we might brand an upset. I’d love to be proved wrong.
Tries, tries, tries
Historically World Cups are won by the team with the best defence and goal kicker. This could be the tournament to buck the trend and we have New Zealand’s complete dominance of international rugby to thank. Nobody realistically believes they can prevent New Zealand from scoring 2 or more tries in a match. Therefore to beat them, tries are required, attack is essential. Even the traditionally conservative South Africans and English have embraced a more attacking game, knowing what will be required to beat the best.
As long as teams don’t revert to type and to conservatism when the pressure gets cranked up to the maximum level, we could see a feast of attacking rugby, some sensational tries and as vivid a celebration of the sport as we have seen.
Superstars
John Kirwan. David Campese. Jonah Lomu. Tim Horan. Jonny Wilkinson. Bryan Habana. Richie McCaw. The stars of World Cups past trip off the tongue – who will be added to the list, who will be seen to define the 2015 edition? Partisan hosts will be looking at Jonathan Joseph or George Ford to elevate themselves among the greats. But there is a host of attacking talent around the world. Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Willie Le Roux, Nemani Nadolo and George North could leave scorch marks all over this green and pleasant land.
Will we be talking about Kieran Reid, Willem Alberts, the power of Pocock and Picamoles, the skill of Sexton and Smith, the footwork of Fofana and Folau? Or will somebody produce something we have never seen before?
In truth the tournament will be won by the team who most exceed the sum of their parts but there are sure to be one or two individuals who we will always associate with the 2015 World Cup in years to come.
Memorable Moments
No RWC conversation goes for long without people trotting out their favourite moments – individual brilliance by Blanco and Campo; Wilkinson / Stransky / Andrew / Larkham / De Beer’s drop goals; Lomu steamrollering Mike Catt; the USA’s Takudzwa Ngwenya skinning Habana; Brian Lima destroying Hougaard. A tournament is lit up by such moments and there will surely be plenty more to add to the conversation.
The Hosts – on the pitch
Only once has a host nation failed to reach the semi-finals. The truth is, sports fans love a bandwagon and the longer the host team is involved, the longer the casual supporter will remain engaged. A successful and exciting England team is therefore critical to the tournament. This World Cup has thrown up the most ridiculous group in World Cup history with 4 of the top 9 teams in the rankings so the locals are guaranteed a rollercoaster ride. For the good of the competition it needs to be a long one.
The Hosts – off the pitch
No sport throws a party like rugby. It will be colourful, it will be partisan, it will be tense, it will be noisy, it will be pretty damn tasty. And we’ll wash the whole thing down with a beer at the end of it.
Bring it on.
By Stu Peel (@peelshow)
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I’d say the keys are:
Hosts in the semi-final – so the casual fan retains interest throughout the tournament.
One “shock” team in the quarters or semis – didn’t really get it in 2011 or 2003, but in 2007 we had Argentina in the semis and Fiji in the quarters, both of which were surprises and added some real interest to the tournament. I think for it to be classed as an underdog, you have to have a team from outside the top 10. This year, either Fiji getting to the quarters or Samoa getting to the semis (I’m not sure them beating Scotland and then losing to Eng/Aus/Wal would be enough of a shock) are outside chances that would constitute shocks. The other option is of course if two of the big boys go out at the same time (see NZ and Aus on the same day in 2007).
Competitive final – contradicting that slightly, it’s no good if your “shock” team gets to the final and then gets pumped. One thing 2007 perhaps lacked (after all the thrills and spills of the earlier rounds) was a close final. South Africa had thrashed England 3 times in the previous 6 months it was settled by 3 scores (considering there were no tries scored) and felt like a bit of a damp squib. Maybe that’s just because I’m English and we lost though! 1995, 2003 and 2011 obviously had close finals, whereas 1999 could have perhaps been better served with a NZ vs Aus final (although then we wouldn’t STILL be talking about that semi-final).
Superstars/tries/moments – regardless of what this tight-head prop thinks, your superstars are your points scorers or creators. Thinking of that England team from 2003, Johnson was a giant and the back row were heroes, but everyone wanted to be Wilkinson or Robinson (who were obviously both instrumental). Occasionally you get something like Dusautoir in 2007 when a defensive shift is the defining moment of a game and in fact a campaign, but more often than not it’s all about the points scorers; outstanding tries and nerveless kicking.