Exeter Chiefs started the 2016/17 season poorly. But a hangover from the success of their maiden appearance in a Premiership final seemed understandable given just how far they have come in recent years. They have bounced back, however, and since drawing with Wasps in February, have just set a new Premiership record of seven bonus-point wins in a row. Even more impressive given those seven victories, as well as including easier opponents such as Worcester, Newcastle, Sale and Bristol, included three of the previous Premiership club heavyweights: Leicester, Harlequins and Northampton.

Given the final round of games – Exeter face Gloucester while Sarries and Wasps duke it out – it also looks likely the Chiefs will finish top of the table for the first time. Like the Leicester Tigers of old, the Chiefs are making a habit of peaking just at the right time. But I would also back them one step further: Chiefs for 2017 Premiership Champions.

Doing it the hard way
Exeter Chiefs are already a success story. They have made steady progress year on year, from achieving promotion to the Premiership for the first time in 2009, debuting in the Heineken Cup in 2012, winning the Anglo-Welsh cup in 2014, to the Premiership play-offs and a final last year. They are just a major piece of silverware away from being the real deal.

They have also made a mockery of other clubs’ reliance on rich backers on debt-funded growth, ending 2015/16 season with a cool £1 million in profit. Apart from Exeter, only Northampton Saints ended the season with a profit. They are akin to Arsenal in football, except they haven’t stagnated where it counts – with the performances on the pitch.

Exeter have also not gone out and bought ready-made superstars. Instead they recruited cleverly. Unwanted Tigers like Geoff Parling, Thomas Waldrom and Julian Salvi or perceived journeymen like Olly Woodburn joined and Exeter got the best out of them. They also showed faith in academy players and young talent. Since Exeter had their first ever England all up (Tom Johnson – remember him? – in 2012) Jack Nowell (soon to be a Lion), Luke Cowan-Dickie and Henry Slade have been capped, while Jack Maunder and Harry Williams have made the most recent England squad for Argentina.

Their success has not been flown in (Wasps may be a little guilty of that this season) but rather earned steadily, and when the hard moments at the end of the season arrive, Exeter will have the steadiness and whole-hearted belief in their squad and system to rise to the occasion.

Only Saracens have built their squad of players in a similar way, with their ‘wolf-pack’ mentality already having received considerable attention – and indeed been adopted partly by England.

Coaches and gameplan
However, for all the ‘rising through the ranks’ and underdog success story, Exeter won’t win trophies without a talented team at the top and a playing style capable of beating the best.

Thankfully, in Richard Baxter, Ali Hepher, Rob Hunter et al they have one of the smartest coaching teams in the league. Baxter, as a former player and coach since their pre-Premiership days, has brought continuity to the side and crafted a gameplan that brings the best out his young talent and capable of challenging the best sides.

They have built a style that utilises their fitness; they hit with wave after wave of attack and their self-belief is second to none – they back themselves to remain mistake free and find that gap in the defence or mismatch they can exploit. It is perhaps more high-risk than Saracens oppressive suffocation tactics, maybe lower-risk than Wasps mercurial running game built around individual talent like Cipriani, Gopperth, Beale, Le Roux, Daly and Wade, but it is a powerful and aggressive plan; and one that can be successful against every kind of opposition.

Last weekend’s victory over Northampton cemented my belief in Exeter’s style of play and showed they are ready to take on the very best in the play-offs. Over the course of the season, they have improved in all the areas where maybe they were a little naïve or unprepared when they reached the final last year.

For what it’s worth, I also think Baxter should be the next England coach. The RFU should get him involved with the national set up sooner rather than later, creating a credible succession plan for when Eddie Jones leaves post the 2019 World Cup. He has some international experience from the 2013 Argentina tour when he worked with Stuart Lancaster, but he needs continued exposure at the top level. Jones’ assistants Steve Borthwick and Paul Gustard are young and talented but neither have the experience of being the man to call the shots. Their time will come, but Baxter should be the next England coach.

I get the impression he will refuse to leave Exeter while he has unfinished business, so winning the premiership will have added meaning. Given his success with the meagre resources and financing behind him at Exeter, imagine what he could do with the full England player base and RFU behind him.

Single aim
Perhaps most importantly, their main competitors, Saracens, are still fighting on two fronts and aiming to achieve a double double. The Chiefs are focused on one goal alone. They can dedicate twice the planning and training to combat their opponents, as opposed to Saracens who still have their European final against Clermont on 13th May to think about, before they begin to consider their semi-final and possible final in the Premiership. How much will that Clermont match (win or lose) have taken out of the Saracens side?

For Exeter, winning would be the next logical step in the most impressive of journeys for this club. For all Saracens’ recent achievements, and undeniable talent within their squad; for all Wasps champagne rugby and superstar names; for Leicester’s continued resilience and unwavering belief they are England’s best side; Exeter are the team I find it hard to bet against.

What do you think? Who will be Premiership champions this year?

By Henry Ker