The internationals have gone off to camp, the club games don’t really matter, and the veterans are being rested. It must be an Anglo-Welsh cup week.
So, in lieu of a normal Lions Stock Check please accept this run down of who, and what, to watch in the Six Nations, for those interested in the battle for places in the Lions squad.
Front Row
Whilst I cannot profess to know much, if anything, about many subjects on this earth, one thing I do know is that I know absolutely nothing about the intricacies of front row play.
With that in mind, who seems nailed on to go?
WP Nel (TH), Tadhg Furlong (TH), Jack McGrath (LH), Mako Vunipola (LH), Rory Best and Dylan Hartley (Hookers) all seem the closest to being sure things.
In 2013 Gatland took 3 hookers, and 6 props. Based on these predictions, it leaves us with one spot available for a tighthead prop, a loosehead prop and a hooker.
Lets start with the hookers: Fraser Brown, Ken Owens and Jamie George seem to be the closest contenders, although Tommy Taylor can’t be too far behind them.
With Jamie George and Tommy Taylor unlikely to start for England (unless captain fantastic has another little outburst), the game to watch with regards to Lions selection has to be Scotland vs Wales and Brown v Owens.
Onto the props: Dan Cole, Zander Fagerson and Samson Lee will likely fight it out for the remaining berth at tighthead prop, with the fixtures between England, Scotland and Wales being the ones to watch to see who wins this three way battle.
Second Row
In perhaps the most hotly contested position on the Lions tour, there are three people who seem sure to go. To me, these are Alan Wyn Jones, George Kruis and Jonny Gray, but this could obviously change. (I’ve included Maro Itoje as a back-row, because otherwise working this out would have made my head hurt.)
Gatland took 5 players primarily listed as Locks to Australia in 2013, with Tom Croft providing extra cover from the back row. So we need to cram all of the remaining talent into two spots.
Richie Gray, Joe Launchbury, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Ultan Dillane, Luke Charteris and maybe even Tim Swinson or Courtney Lawes could be considered the peloton. It really is an unenviable position for Gatland to be in.
As all of the home nations look to have exceptional talent in the second row, it’s hard to pick a standout game. But, I would have to say that, as an Englishman, the standout game is likely to be Wales v England, with the probable Lions captain playing against one of the deepest second rows in the world.
Back Row
From one crowded position to another. For me there are four definites, with (again) a whole load more who could go. I think Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje, C.J. Stander and Sean O’Brien are now squabbling over who gets to sit in an aisle seat.
Seven players from 2013 were listed in the back row. So we have three places still to confirm.
The last Lions captain Sam Warburton, Taulupe Faletau, Ross Moriarty, Justin Tipuric, Rob Harley, James Haskell, Chris Robshaw, Jamie Heaslip and Nathan Hughes are all in with a reasonable shot. Perhaps the only area of weakness would be a ‘true’ openside, but still it’s not shaping up to be a bad back row.
With all of Wales’ starting back row in the pile of possibles, their matches will be the ones to watch for the back row battles, particularly against Ireland and England at the Millennium Stadium.
Half Backs
Finally, a subject that I know at least something about: the backs.
At scrum-half, the absolute standout is Conor Murray. The robust Irishman is more than capable of going toe-to-toe with two of the worlds best in T.J. Perenara and Aaron Smith.
In 2013 Gatland toured with three nines, if he is to do the same again it’ll be two back-ups that he’s looking for.
Ben Youngs, Rhys Webb, and Greg Laidlaw could all lay claim to one of the berths. Laidlaw has been indifferent for an uninspiring Gloucester, but his ability to operate at stand-off makes him a potentially valuable commodity on a touring team. Webb provided a spark for Wales in the Autumn and should be fit again after an ankle injury. Youngs’ variability makes him a difficult quality to judge, but he can be unplayable when he’s on form and his performances in a triumphant England team in 2016 probably have him just ahead of the other two at this stage.
Seeing Webb and Laidlaw face off will be an interesting prospect with that in mind, so keep an eye on the 9s in Scotland vs Wales
As for the fly halves, Farrell and Sexton are the standouts. Farrell’s versatility could determine the shape of the midfield, and his goal kicking could determine the shape of the back three.
In 2013, Farrell and Sexton were the only two tourists listed as fly-halves, with Stuart Hogg cited as backup.
With Farrell playing at 12 for England, it’s likely that Gatland will take a third fly-half, since both Sexton and Farrell could make the Test team and they’ll need some versatile cover.
George Ford and Finn Russell seem the two closest to direct replacements. Behind them, the group swells; Paddy Jackson, Sam Davies, Alex Lozowski, Danny Cipriani and Dan Biggar could all be in contention, and from this group, Lozowski’s new-found versatility makes him perhaps the most likely to be called up if he gets some game time for England.
My game to watch with regards to fly-halves will be the final game of the Six Nations: potentially Championship-deciding and, as if you needed another reason to watch Ireland v England, you get to see three of the home nations’ best fly-halves face off.
Centres
In every other position, at least one of 2013’s tourists is almost a sure thing to be making another trip down under, but not at centre.
Of the four berths that we expect there to be if 2013 is anything to go by, two are likely filled by Robbie Henshaw and Jonathan Joseph.
Gatland won’t be short of choice to fill his two remaining berths either. Scott Williams, Matt Scott, Alex Dunbar, Elliot Daly and, a potential returning tourist, Jonathan Davies are all hot on their heels. There are plenty of others, such as Ben Te’o (who does very little for me) or Garry Ringrose (who I like a lot but is perhaps too green) who must be at least considered in passing. Farrell’s versatility muddies the water here even further.
I’m perhaps most looking forward to the Wales v Scotland match and seeing a new-look Welsh midfield against a quietly brilliant Scottish one, which will be very interesting indeed.
Back Three
There were seven back three players on the 2013 Lions tour; three listed at fullback and four on the wings. This time around, I think five of these spots have already been filled: Stuart Hogg, Jack Nowell, Simon Zebo, Tommy Seymour and Liam Williams.
Hogg seems to be the consensus fullback, and I believe Nowell and Zebo would offer a nice balance on the wings, with Nowell’s work rate and Zebo’s turn of pace.
There are piles of players who could fill the remaining spots: Anthony Watson, Andrew Trimble, Sean Maitland, George North, Rob Kearney, Semesa Rokoduguni, and even Elliot Daly could be in with a chance. Halfpenny too is surely up for consideration, but his game lacks distribution and his boot would be less valuable in a lineup that features Owen Farrell.
With all of the home nations possessing fearsome back threes, it’s hard to pick out one game to watch. But as we have two probables and at least another possible in the Scotland team, it will have to be a Scottish game. Scotland v England is always a big game, and England don’t have a bad back three themselves, so it may as well be that.
So concludes this Lions Stock Check, and what to watch during the Six Nations. It’s been one long exercise in futility, because you’ll probably watch all of it anyway!
Which player battles are you most looking forward to?
By Angus Williams
Jonny May
I just really hope that no matter how good Wales do in the Six National, Biggar is nowhere near the Lions squad. He simply is not good enough to play at 10 for the Lions.
Jack Nowell has finally cut off that stupid rats tail
Lets hope that he doesn’t have a Sampson moment as a result
I’m interested to know the size of squad that Gatland plans to take. I believe it was 37 last time, but I think that’ll increase. In 2013 there were so many call ups, I think the squad ended up being more like 45 as they realised it just isn’t possible to play two games of rugby in a week with the physical intensity that test match rugby now has.
I’d have Russell as the third 10 personally (with Farrell and Sexton), and Webb as the third 9 (with Murray and Youngs). I’d also definitely take George as the third hooker.
Back row is still the most open one for me, as I think from the list above Itoje might go as a lock and SOB is mainly considered that way on reputation and not recent form.
I would agree with all of that Jacob. Especially Itoje as a lock. With so many back row options, it seems odd to take Itoje as a back rower, when you could take him as a lock who can cover the back row? Saying that I would bet that a few of the locks in question could cover back row. I know that Kruis used to play 6, and both Launchbury and Lawes have played 6 also.
Personally I would have George in the squad ahead of Hartley. We may end up seeing more of George than Hartley in the Six Nations if Hartley can’t keep his temper or his fitness.
As for 10 I think a lot will depend on what happens in the Six Nations. Russell is on good form, but if Lozowski gets a chance for England he may just sneak a spot. He has been a revelation for Sarries since signing, and the fact that he looks very comfortable at 10 or 15 and can and will tackle anyone that comes his way, may just get him on the plane.
I agree, there are a lot of great locks, Itoje can certainly cover 6 but I think there are enough good options that means Itoje should go as a lock along with Gray, AWJ, Kruis and Henderson if I was picking it. Henderson can also comfortably cover 6.
Lozowski could definitely feature. Will he really go over Ford as a 10 option though considering Farrells versatility? I can’t see that happening without injuries. Whilst I like Lozowski and I’m gutted we didn’t give him a chance as Wasps, I’d definitely have Russell and Ford ahead of his as an out and out 10, and probably Jackson too.
I think Lozowski’s versatility to play at 12 or 15 as well, might get him in ahead of other options? I’ve never seen Ford or Russell play anywhere except 10 and with the restrictions on squad numbers Gats may be tempted to take more versatile backs.
I’m not sure that versatility matters in his case though?
If we assume that for the test team, Farrell plays 10 or 12. If he plays 12, Sexton starts at 10. If he plays 10 then Sexton is the fly half option from the bench.
So basically, whoever this third option is, starts at 10 for the midweek team. Surely at that point Lozowski covering other positions becomes irrelevant? He’ll just want the best option to play 10 in those games? Personally I’d pick Russell but I think it might be Ford.
If Farrell was to get injured (bloody disaster for the Lions), then Lozowski’s chances of going as a third 10 shoots up massively.
Point taken.
The way England players are dropping at the moment I wouldn’t be surprised to see Farrell or Ford get crocked. Really hope not, but I can see it happening.
I really hope not! Well it’s actually mainly Farrell that I’d be worried about losing. We’d likely see Te’o come in I think, and Ford end up as our goal kicker. We’d be a hell of a lot worse off!
When he was starting out at glasgow russell played a bunch of games at 12.
I can’t see him being played there for the lions though.
Russell played quite a bit at 12 for Glasgow when he first came on the scene, and has moved there on numerous occasions in the last couple of years.
It all depends on the style of game Gatland chooses to play. If he goes down the route of England’s style with 2 10s at first and second receiver, then Russell has a good shout. If he plays Gatland ball, Russell has no hope!
Just saw Jim Telfer’s Lions XV on the BBC and it’s pretty grim reading from a Scottish perspective… but also probably not far off.
Yeah some strange picks in his Lions XV? No Billy V really sticks out for me, and I wondered if he’d put Faletau in there just to keep AWJ company? At the moment I would have Johhny Gray ahead of AWJ, with Kruis or Itoje alongside.
George north has to be a definite. Gatland will want his money’s worth out of him while he can still see and talk.
Think Gatland is going to have to take 40 + players on the tour, they play 8 games in 27 days in June, which, to my mind is bordering on ludicrous, you can practically guarantee about 20% of the players who start the tour won’t be available for the last test …
So many choices & Jones of the S Times reckons that as the SH Championship is rubbish compared with this yr’s 6N it presumably may be a doddle of an NZ tour according to his reasoning, esp as his grandmother could’ve beaten Oz & the Saffas!
We’ll see, but there are indeed multiple options it seems, although Mike Brown doesn’t rate a mention?
The team’s composition ought to bear in mind whether the Lions are likely to overpower the AB’s up front, i.e. deny them possession. If so, then people like Farrell may be deemed appropriate in an attempt to kick them to victory. If not & IMO there’s little evidence to suggest this, esp with NZ’s back to back cup & Dublin wins, instead of a likely 1 off Chicago, then the Lions will need to be more innovative.
Combinations will be important, also balance, back up (injuries will occur) & EXP. They are away with little prep time & will face S Rugby sides whom will ‘soften’ them up.
As aforementioned, so many choices, but the right 1’s & the right style of play? Mmmm.
I think that’s the key; selection must be based on game plan and I’m not sure how Gatland see’s his team playing. Normally I would say Warrenball but it hasn’t worked for him yet and I wonder, with a lot more options, if he will try to expand his game.
I think the squad will be 40 ish as it is a punishing schedule and hope he goes for a more mobile, fast paced group to make the most of the hard ground and give us something to cheer.
One totally left field option no one has mentioned is Jimmy Gopperth, on form and covers a couple positions…..?
I guess Gopperth is eligible. Has he ever expressed an interest?
Gopperth was capped by the Junior All Blacks which I think counts as their official second team and therefore is tied to NZ rugby? Could be wrong though
I believe their capture team is the Maori All Blacks, but please don’t quote me on it.
Lions 15@310117
Hogg Watson Joseph Henshaw.Williams Sexton Murray Faleteau OBrian Itoje J.Gray AWJ cap. Furlong Hartley Mako
Joseph on the wing? Interesting choice.
No room for Farrell either?
Dazza pay attention Joseph is at 13 Farrell is a good player but not as good as Sexton at 10 or Henshaw at 12 Farrell will be on the bench where he can cover 10 or 12
I think I’d prefer Farrell at 10. He’s less prone to concussion or injury than Sexton. His tactical kicking is great and he’ll slot the necessary penalties. His distribution is good as well
Farrell, Henshaw, Joseph for me
I’ve seen nothing from Sexton in about 18 months that suggests he is as good as Farrell, I can’t help but feel him going on tour at all is mainly based on reputation and experience.
Farrell is one of the first names on the team sheet for me, at either 10 or 12. If Sexton plays, Farrell and Henshaw play together. Personally though I can’t see past Farrell – Henshaw – Joseph
Pablito Farrells kicking out of hand is rubbish his place kicking is superb watch the rugby.
Not sure who you have been watching over the past few years Sevegolf but it can’t have been Farrell. I agree with Pablito and Jacob. He would be one of the first names on the team sheet for me at 10. He is a better tackler than Sexton and brings a bit more aggression. Maturing into a class player.
His kicking out of hand is rubbish? You do realise he is the fly half for the European champions that have a gameplan that relies heavily on a kicking game and field position? Might be worth watching for Sarries or England games over the past 18 months.
It will be interesting to see how huw jones performs , by the end of this six nations he could be a favourite for the 13 jersey
It’d be stunning if Huw Jones toured with the Lions given how inexperienced he is, although he’s undeniably very talented.