Four rounds into the new season of the Aviva Premiership, and a surprising team occupies the fourth and final play-off position: Newcastle Falcons.

They currently have 14 points from the four matches, bettered only by Exeter’s 16, and the same as Saracens and Northampton, while above such heavyweights as Wasps, Bath and Leicester.

Last weekend they threw away a 19-point lead and shipped 32 points to Bath. ‘Here we go’, I thought. But where only a couple of years ago Newcastle would have crumbled and accepted defeat, this time they fought back and took a bonus point victory by a singe point.

It was their first win at the Rec for eight years, and one over a Bath team who had looked mightily impressive themselves in the opening couple of game before defeat by Northampton. In round two last season, Bath crushed Newcastle 58–5.

From what I have seen so far, the Falcons are certainly contenders for the Champions Cup places and a side no one will relish playing. As for whether they will still occupy that all-important final play off place at the business end of the season? Perhaps unlikely, but they are moving in the right direction.

It is early days, and the Premiership is a long and exhausting marathon rather than a sprint, but the Falcons certainly have reason to be optimistic. Their opening four games may not be the most difficult run they will have – Worcester, Sale and Saracens preceded Bath. But they thumped Worcester (35-8). No team likes playing Sale away but, like with Bath, they found a way to win against the run of play. The only blemish is that defeat by Saracens. There they sacrificed a game at Kingston Park to play in the showpiece event in the US – a 7-29 defeat in a drab match by the European champions is hardly an embarrassing result given the situation.

In my predicted Premiership table a few weeks ago, I backed Newcastle to take seventh spot. This was a far cry from my prediction for the 2016/2017 season, where I marked them for relegation before they duly ignored me to finish in 8th. In my defence, they had stumbled through the previous season, finishing 11th and besting relegated London Irish by a measly 7 points. But I have learned my lesson – Newcastle are on the rise.

The key to Newcastle’s resurgence has been coach Dave Walder and, particularly, director of rugby Dean Richards. Richards was something of a ‘persona non grata’ after his involvement at Harlequins in ‘bloodgate’. It may seem churlish for me to bring this up when discussing Richards’ current brilliant work, but it is only for context – it also goes some way to explaining how the Falcons landed themselves a coach who won two Heineken cups and an extraordinary four consecutive Premiership titles with Leicester Tigers. Not to mention his international caps: 48 for England and 6 for the Lions.

Walder and Richards’ smart gameplan and style of play has reinvigorated Newcastle – in part aided by their artificial surface at Kingston Park. I was initially baffled by the Falcons decision to install the all-weather playing surface; the mud-bath that was their old pitch in the winter was their gameplan’s USP. No team looked forward to the arduous trek north in January to play there in the freezing rain – it was rugby’s equivalent of football’s ‘cold, wet, windy Wednesday night in Stoke’.

However, it has proved a stroke of genius – rather than taking anything away from their game, the new surface has freed them to play their new brand of ‘keep the ball alive’ rugby all year round.

Newcastle have also recruited smartly. They are unlikely to attract the very biggest names in the game (they do not have the financial muscle for that), but a glance over their teamsheet reveals a host of excellent players. Vereniki Goneva and DTH van der Merwe are the flair to complement the impressive industry of Mark Wilson and Will Welch, all operating around the fulcrum of scrum-half Sonatane Takulua and his rapid distribution.

Soon they will also have the experienced duo of Toby Flood and Maxime Mermoz to reinforce the squad and offer the benefit of their combined 95 international caps. The Falcons squad looks balanced and dangerous.

Exeter is the blueprint for every aspiring smaller rugby club. The Chiefs’ incremental gains took them through the leagues, into Europe and eventually seeing them crowned Premiership champions last year. Of those other clubs looking to replicate Exeter’s success and upset the status quo, I think Newcastle – with their strong squad, experienced coaches and new pitch – look best placed.

Who has impressed you over the opening rounds? Out of the challenger teams who looks likeliest to upset the top sides?

By Henry Ker