So, no World Cup and no Lions tour in 2016… but there is still so much for rugby fans to look forward to, from a Six Nations that promises to be closer than ever, to a bafflingly revamped Super Rugby competition – including new Argentinian and Japanese franchises – that could be quite bonkers.
Here are our tentative predictions for which teams will win silverware in this calendar year.
MARCH
RBS 6 NATIONS
The last two post-World Cup Six Nations have been won by Wales – and right now, they are probably tentative favourites. With some of their stars returning from injury, and a (relatively) good World Cup campaign behind them, they seem well set for another tilt at the title. Ireland are in a period of self-reflection after their narrow gameplan was found out at the World Cup, while France and England are in a serious re-building phase under respective new coaches. Italy haven’t shown anything to suggest they will finish anywhere other than last once again, but Scotland under Vern Cotter could be serious dark horses – although conditions may temper their newly discovered ambition in attack.
Wales do have to travel to Dublin and London for away games, but win either – or both – of those and they’ll be well set for third Six Nations title immediately after a World Cup.
Winners: Wales
MAY
AVIVA PREMIERSHIP
It is currently a one horse race as to who will finish top of the regular season table. Saracens have eight wins from eight games and sit six points clear at the top. Their victories have, for the most part, been worryingly comfortable so at the moment it is essentially a battle between 11 other sides for the three remaining play-off spots. Of course, anything can happen in those knockout stages but with Bath and Northampton both faltering, you’d be a fool to bet against Sarries winning back to back titles.
At the other end of the table, Worcester’s recent downturn in form has seen them slip back towards the trapdoor with Newcastle and London Irish. To be honest, this battle promises to be more exciting than the one at the top – all three sides are good enough to be in the league, and they have all beaten one of last year’s Premiership semi-finalists so far this season. Of the three, Newcastle look the most vulnerable to me.
Winners: Saracens
Relegated: Newcastle
GUINNESS PRO12
The PRO12 gets a bad wrap at times, but in terms of pure competitiveness, it is one of the most difficult leagues to predict. At the halfway point of the regular season, just four points separate Scarlets at the top and Ulster in sixth, with Leinster, Connacht, Edinburgh and Munster all in between. Looking at the games to come, my favourites are Ulster, who have hit some fine form over the festive break (a disappointing loss to Munster aside) and still have to welcome Connacht, Leinster and the Scarlets to the Kingspan Stadium. That should be enough to see them surge to the top of the table and enter the play-offs as favourites.
Winners: Ulster
EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP
Toulon may have won the last three European Cups in a row, but this year they are genuinely looking like a side less than the sum of its parts – perhaps their lavish recruitment policy is finally starting to bite, with more ego than quality emerging from their performances so far. They should still qualify, but a home quarter-final is far from assured. Looking through the other pools, fellow French giants Racing and Clermont look well-placed to challenge, while this could be the year Leicester return to the top table. But really, there is one side that has sailed through the group stages despite tough opposition, and once again it’s the men from North London: Saracens. They are not only currently the best side in England, but rather the whole of Europe, and they must be the favourites at the moment.
Winners: Saracens
EUROPEAN RUGBY CHALLENGE CUP
European Rugby’s little brother has hit puberty this year and swelled in importance with the addition of qualification for the Champions Cup for the winner. The French sides are nevertheless showing their usual level of complete disinterest, and at the moment – despite decent showings from the Dragons and Connacht – two English sides are ruling the roost: holders Gloucester, and Harlequins. Of the two, Quins look the more composed and consistent side this year.
Winners: Harlequins
GREENE KING IPA CHAMPIONSHIP
To be frank, if Bristol don’t win promotion this season then they don’t deserve to be in the Premiership. They have not quite enjoyed the all-conquering success of seasons past (with two losses to their name already), but are seven points clear of Doncaster (who finished ninth last season) at the top. Most importantly, there is no obvious challenger in the mould of Worcester and London Welsh from the last two seasons – the latter are wallowing in eighth, in fact. With a big name team set to come down from the Premiership, they surely can’t fail again – can they?
Winners & promoted: Bristol
Relegated: Moseley
JUNE
TOP 14
Like the PRO12, the business end of the Top 14 is similarly tighter than a gnat’s arse. Three teams (Racing 92, Clermont and Toulouse) sit on 38 points at the top, while six points separate those three from Montpellier in seventh. Racing have been inspired by Dan Carter’s arrival, with the great Kiwi’s second sojourn in France already wildly more successful than his previous, ill-fated stint in Perpignan. Toulouse look a different beast in the league to their insipid European side, while Clermont and Toulon will always be there or thereabouts. You could essentially put the top six or seven in a hat, pick one out at random and have as much chance of selecting the winner as if you try to apply any actual logic. So I’m going for Racing 92, just because.
At the other end of the table, it’s looking bleak for Agen and Oyonnax, who are already six points adrift from safety. Pau, Stade Français and Grenoble are still within reach, but those three look too good to go down in a way that the other two simply do not.
Winners: Racing 92
Relegated: Agen, Oyonnax
JULY
SUPER RUGBY
This promises to be a truly intriguing Super Rugby season, on many levels. Firstly and most obviously, two teams have been added (one Argentinian and one Japanese), and the tournament has been split down the middle – two ‘African’ conferences (with one new team each) and two Australasian conferences. Games will be played in five countries and five different time zones. The logistics are completely ridiculous, but suffice to say it should be a lot of fun to try and keep track of.
It also means it’s outrageously difficult to pick a winner. Pretty much every franchise has lost key players to hefty European contracts, and while the Argentinian Jaguares look fairly formidable, they will take time to find their feet. The Chiefs look in relatively good shape compared to the rest and will hope to bounce back from a disappointing 2015 campaign – they’re my pick at the moment but to be honest, with the new format, who the hell knows what will happen?
Winners: Chiefs
OCTOBER
THE RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP
The last piece of silverware on offer this season is what promises to be one of the closest Rugby Championships ever. New Zealand will enter as favourites but how will they cope without legends Richie McCaw and Dan Carter? They undoubtedly have the talent to fill the void but the loss of two genuine icons will take some getting used to. South Africa look the weakest of the four, a side in real transition, but both Argentina and Australia, fresh from hugely encouraging World Cup campaigns in 2015, can certainly challenge the Kiwis, and I think the Cheika-inspired Wallabies have enough to back up last year’s watered-down win with a real one.
Winners: Australia
How do you see the year going? Leave your own predictions below.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
I disagree that England should undergo “serious” rebuilding when the players meet up later this month. France maybe, but we have 20 wins in our last 25 6 Nations games, which is not a bad record for anyone’s money. A few tweaks will be needed to improve us by a few percent, but we were 3 points from a Grand Slam in 2014 and 6 points from the Championship last year. And for all the talk of a disastrous World Cup (against Wales’ relatively good), we were one more penalty away from a quarter-final (and Wales crashing out).
Not sure who’s favourites (although the bookies have England down), but I wouldn’t discount England at all.
I thought the same when I read that to be fair. I think, largely, England will be putting out the same side to the SL era. Outside of the centres and the 7 shirt there were no real issues.
What England needed is someone to come in and lift them that extra few percent. Find a centre that can do more than defend (by find I mean pick, there are plenty) and find a 7 that can be a test class fetcher (this time I really mean find).
Outside of that, as you say, the SL era was actually fairly successful in terms of wins.
Not sure I agree entirely that the only issues Jones has to resolve are at centre and 7. Cole and Marler didn´t look any too impressive in the WC and I don´t think Cole has ever got back to his best since his neck injury. There are also choices to be made at hooker (I really hope he doesn´t revert to Hartley), at lock, where Kruis is playing out of his skin at present, at 6, where Haskell and Robshaw are both putting their hands up, and possibly at scrum half where I still think Care offers more than Youngs when he is at his best. He also has to replace Johnny May. Having said all that I think that those survivors from the WC will be really hurting and will bring an edge to England that has been somewhat lacking. I certainly think they can beat Wales and with that large monkey off their back I don´t see why they shouldn´t win a Grand Slam. It is well past time we had something to celebrate!
All the positions you list are just debates between players that were being selected for England anyway. Picking Youngs or Care won’t mean some sort of rebuilding job. Nor will pick Haskell or Robshaw.
It is only centre and 7 where current options need completely replacing.
Don’t agree on Marler and Cole being shot. Brookes and Vunipola certainly both seem in better form (but again both were involved heavily previously), and both Cole and Marler will continue to be in England squads.
The point is – the mythical upheaval doesn’t exist.
Oh right you are then Rob,
‘a few tweaks’ like replacing the coaching team that was supposed to be with us until 2019?
‘we were 3 points from a Grand Slam in 2014 and 6 points from the Championship last year’
Another view would be……………….
‘We didn’t win enough games or score enough points every season under Stu and in fact for over a decade under everyone else.’
Unless you count the blown GS v Ireland in the last game of the 2011 6n as a triumph.
2011 England’s best rugby year in the last 12 because it led to the RWC 2011 where at least you made it to the 1/4 final.
Rob where’s the admission that……??
‘we were 28 points from beating Wales in 2013 for a GS and 16 points from beating Ireland in 2015’
How about…..?
‘At RWC 2015 we really screwed up by blowing a 10 point lead v Wales at 16-6,19-9 and 22-12 and then Knobsure still managed to throw it away at the end.’
‘We were appalling against the Aussies..a laughing stock in fact’.
Wales almost crashing out….Wales were not the hosts and had lost the 2014 and 2015 6n games v England so whose sorry now??!!!
Yet more Orwellian-speak from the England fans I am afraid.
Its like that North Korean news agency that reported their team had won the footie World Cup.
As my old Grammar School History Master used to say….(my selective state education was earned via my 11+ results not daddy’s chq book!)
‘If is the biggest word in the English language boys…if I’d only done this….if I’d only done that…if my aunty had testicles she would have been my uncle’.
Hehe
Good work Rob I haven’t seen an Enoch rant like that for months
Way to poke the sleeping bear
No its the standard anti English rugby feeling that everyone in Wales feels towards the so-called greatest rugby nation in the Northern hemisphere…the team that’s won F++k all for 12 years and had the largest player pool as they’ll pick a leprous Pitcairn Islander if they thought it would get the a GS.
6N
Agreed Wales, would add England to finish 2nd as always
AP
Agreed Sarries, probably facing Exeter in their first final
P12
Agreed Ulster, probably facing Scarlets in the final
Champions Cup
Agreed Sarries, probably facing Racing in the final
Challenge Cup
Agreed Quins, probably facing Gloucester in the final
T14
Agreed Racing, probably facing Clermont in the final
SR
Highlanders to win in final against Waratahs
RC
Aus, NZ, ARG, SA in that order
While Saracens have impressive strength in depth by Premiership standards, compared to the big French teams our squad us still relatively shallow. So I think Saracens have a great chance of winning one of the Premiership or the Champions Cup, but I worry if they are still fighting both fronts come the end of the season things will start going wrong.
6 Nations only:
Ah yes, Scotland the perennial “dark horses” for the 6n – always flattering to deceive in the autumn only to disappoint come the new year. Grumbles about the ref ignore the fact that it was they who stuffed up the lineout that would have won them the match against Aus. Their “resurgence” also overlooks the good fortune that saw them play Japan 4 days after their SA win and a blatant missed knock-on in the match winning try against Samoa. Maybe this time it’s for real…
Agree with posters above over the OTT pessimism with England. A stable team with (injuries permitting) improved sections and coaching should see them there or thereabouts. It depends on whether EJ eschews the short term approach often adopted by SL (2014 excepting) to implement a new style of attack for England.
Wales are the clear favourites. Injured players coming back, experienced team and coaches. Twickenham or Dublin will hold no fears, given their recent record, although I imagine Jones and Schmidt will go all out to maintain a good home record. As above with England – will Gatland eschew Warrenball with an eye on the bigger picture, pairing the likes of Scott Williams and JD2 in the centres, Amos, Walker and Liam W at the back and go for a more all court game? Possibly, otherwise there is the danger that Wales will become a bit stale.
Ireland will probably benefit from coming in under the radar – the favourites tag rarely suits them. Just as Schmidt wasn’t the messiah before, he has not become a bad coach overnight, so expect them to be competitive.
France – who knows, but they surely will be better than previous years.
All in all a VERY competitive competition this year. Could see an outright victor with a 4/1 win/ loss result with the other rivals on 3 wins apiece.
If you are giving predictions… who is going to be the Lions Head Coach for next year?
It does say predictions for “2016”
Could be any out of Schimdt, Cotter or Jones depending on how the 6N’s go. I feel its highly unlikely to be given the Gatland twice in a row
I’ve got the same feeling. I don’t think they’ll go with Gatland again. Cotter for me.
Boks to give good account of themselves in Championship and I also see the Lions getting into semis of superrugby,big squad,currie cup unbeaten,great vibe,and the English or the French to win the 6nations!Saracens to win a couple of tropheys and also watch out for argentina,both club and countries!aka rooies
NEWSFLASH:
Who predicted Andy Farrell would get a job as defense coach for Ireland?
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jan/06/andy-farrell-ireland-defence-coach
Who was it who sung “Every step you take, every move you make I´ll be watching you”? Owen must be feeling that Ireland will have him analysed to the nth degree and completely neutralised within weeks. Thanks Dad!
Another cockup by the RFU. Surely they should have ensured that contractually he couldn’t go straight to another six nations team? Prophet Enoch will be on here gloating very shortly I suspect, and he will have the right to.
Andy he isn’t going till after the 6 nations, presumably because of a clause in his contract. The RFU can’t stop him from getting a job so this is the best they can do and for once they haven’t cocked it up!
You are right Ben. I read this morning that he is not starting until next June, which is probably the best the RFU can do.. However, in many industries contracts will carry a clause which prevents people from transferring potentially damaging intellectual property to a competitor organisation fro a period that equates to the amount of salary that they are given as a pay off. I would certainly think that is relevant in this situation. Given that Farrell had about five years left on his contract I would imagine that he got at least one year´s salary in lieu, and a suitable clause would have kept him out of the clutches of another six nations team for a full year, by which time his knowledge would be less up to date. Having said that, he has always seemed like a pretty genuine sort of bloke and I hope he is successful.
LEON SAD TO ADMIT YOUR PREDICTION FOR THIS YEAR’S SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RUGBY CHAMPS LOOKS CORRECT. WITH THE SA GOVT. INTERFERING IN SELECTION POLICIES FROM CURRIE CUP UP TO NATIONAL LEVEL MANY MORE YOUNG SAFFERS (WHITE) WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN EUROPE. I PREDICT A MASSIVE INFLUX FROM 2017 ONWARDS. SOON THE ‘BOKS WILL BE BEATEN BY A TEAM OF EXPATS PLYING THEIR TRADE IN EUROPE