It’s here. I’ve got chills of excitement. After a year of endless speculation, we have our 23-man squad for the first test between the 2017 British & Irish Lions and the All Blacks.
And true to his word, Warren Gatland caught us all by surprise. The majority of the team is as predicted, but there are a couple of curve-ball selections. Whether they will make the difference come Saturday, we will have to wait and see.
Alun Wyn Jones over Maro Itoje has certainly disappointed the majority of you on this blog. I am with you on that, but I can understand Gatland’s decision. The rest of the front five is comparatively raw (George Kruis and Tadhg Furlong have 20 and 16 caps respectively, while Jamie George’s 17 have all come from the bench) and in a Lions test Jones’ 110 caps of experience could be invaluable. Yep, we have all seen his stats from the tour so far and they aren’t too impressive but he’s hoping he rises to the occasion and uses his experience to bring the best out of the rest of the pack. Expect him to empty the tank and be replaced on 50 minutes.
The area we were all caught short, however, was the back three. Elliot Daly, Liam Williams and Anthony Watson certainly featured in the majority of Lions teams picked by fans and pundits alike, but I certainly don’t recall seeing all three together. Everyone expected at least one ‘Gatland favourite’ from George North and Leigh Halfpenny to be there. A hat tip for Gatland for that – he has picked on form and exciting attacking intent. There is pace aplenty in the trio and also good footballing brains – all are equally comfortable at fullback and wing which will allow a degree of flexibility to their play. Although Williams played a full 80 on Tuesday, while Daly had 60 minutes. Could that effect their performance?
With the All Blacks (perhaps surprisingly) naming Rieko Iaone over Julian Savea to win his third cap on the left wing, they will be tasked with shutting down ridiculous pace rather than ridiculous power (although the two do have both in abundance) – Ioane is the fastest player in the All Blacks squad, no mean feat when you watch Beauden Barrett shred defences. We saw how Jack Nowell struggled to deal with his break, but also watched as the Lions’ intense press against the Maori neutralised his effectiveness.
The difference on Saturday is that man Barrett. The finest purveyor of the kick pass on the planet, he also has one of the best targets for the high ball now to aim at. That’s ignoring Ben Smith and Israel Dagg (who aren’t too shabby themselves). Expect a lot of crossfield kicking and attempts to exploit the Lions back three. Don’t forget, Williams was sin-binned earlier in the tour for contesting kicks, while Daly got a red against Argentina for taking the man out in the air. Could be an area of weakness.
Elsewhere and it is as expected – I like this Lions pack, especially the back row which has power and smarts in equal measures. The dual between the trio and Kieran Read (back from his thumb injury), Sam Cane and Jerome Kaino will be one for the ages.
Is there a weakness in the All Blacks team? Not really. Maybe Codie Taylor at hooker, a fine player but no Dane Coles. Mind you, any alternative at hooker looks poor compared to Dane Coles. But maybe there is a chance to attack the lineout? Jamie George and George Kruis faced off against Taylor and Sam Whitelock in the Crusaders match and came out on top.
The midfield is one of the match ups I am most looking forward to. Sonny Bill Williams vs Ben Te’o should be a seismic collision. Similar players in many respects, Te’o has been one of the players of the tour so far and will be tasked with not only neutralising Williams’ devastating offload game but responding in kind.
The key for me is the kicking game. Owen Farrell (passed fit) and Conor Murray need to be pin-point perfect on Saturday. If they give that New Zealand back three an inch of space on the counter attack we could be in for a long game. Make sure the defence is up on the kick receiver quickly guys.
So prediction time. I am a huge fan and will be supporting the Lions with everyone else on Saturday morning, and I do have an inkling of excitement about victory. But then I look at that All Blacks line-up and my heart sinks. It may be the first real test of the season for New Zealand (sorry Samoa), and they have a history of being caught a little cold, but there is a reason New Zealand have been the most dominant international sports team in the world over the past decade. 788 caps of experience of being the very best between them, back-to-back World Cups, and at least three-quarters of the team should a world XV have to be hurriedly organised to fend off rugby-playing aliens…
Ah stuff it.
My prediction: Lions by 2
Average SuperBru prediction: New Zealand by 11.33 (NZ 89%, Lions 11%)
By Henry Ker
Lions by 6. Liam Williams either to have a stormer or get sent off.
Punchy prediction!
Please no red cards after all this build-up and anticipation.
Lions could possibly edge the first test as NZ will be stone cold especially given several players have not plaed for a few months.
However think NZ will comfortably win the next 2 (10+).
I tend to agree with you.Any team from the North has best chance against the All Black’s in first game.
@ Eden Park im going for a narrow NZ win
AB’s by 3
It all hinges on 3 things:
1. The breakdown. Can the Lions stop them getting quick ball. If they don’t, then it will a long day in defence. Lions pack needs to disrupt and contend at the breakdown, never letting them settle. Just as Ireland did in Chicago and England in their win at Twickenham
2. Barrett – he can be pressured into mistakes and playing more deeply, just as happened with McKenzie for the Maori. The Lions need to leave him with no time on the ball. Make him rush everything. This is why the team needed Itoje / Lawes starting.
3. The aerial battle. As mentioned Farrell and Murray need to be absolutely spot on all day and Williams, Watson and Daly need to mind their challenges when jumping. The more hassled Barrett is by thre Lions defence the less this will be a concern and the wetness may cut down on his kick-passes – at least I hope so. The Lions need to make sure that any of their kicks not for touch are contestable and contested and that anything loose by the ABs is punished.
I would deeply love to see a Lions win, irrespective of selection and Gatland’s big error in bringing in several fringe Welsh players, but I fear an AB win by 3-7 points in a close game.
My biggest wish is that the back 3 all give a clear demonstration of their undoubted ability and that in particular, that Williams remembers how he shredded the AB defence on a number of occasions during the last Welsh tour.
Pab
You once opined;
‘Are the current All Black team as good as they are made out to be?
Or have essential weaknesses since the retirement of McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Smith et al been masked by the fact that the opposition they have played since the World Cup has been either re-building (Australia) or on the way down (South Africa, Wales)
Did Ireland (who managed to win just 1 out of 3 against a poor SA side in the summer) expose just how much the ABs rely on the work of Retallick and Whitelock? Is the legendary strength in depth of the ABs no longer there to the same standard?’
What say you now?
Lions by 3!
ABs by 10 at least
Love that it is now so close to call. Who here a month ago would’ve predicted a Lions win?!
I myself am going fro Lions by 4
Do you not think the predictions of a Lions win are more a product of hype and over-exuberance, though? They’ve lost to the Blues and Highlanders and whilst the last couple of performances have been more promising, I can’t imagine that the ABs have watched them and trembled in fear.
The second team just lost to the Blues and the Highlanders before comprehensively beating the Chiefs.
Before and after the first game, we continually heard from naysayers that the Lions would be lucky to win a match all tour. We were told how the games against the Crusaders and the Maori were essentially extra tests. We heard all about the Crusaders’ winning streak and the strength of the Maoris – all about how the way they played the game was too fast and skillful for the Lions to live with.
Then came the silence and the excuses after the Crusaders were kept to just three points and their streak crushed. And after the vaunted attacking ability of the Maori was restricted to a lucky try in the course of a comprehensive defeat.
Then just to add to he momentum, the second team put the Chiefs to the sword.
We may not win tomorrow but the Lions have shown enough to give us all some hope that they might pull it off
Pab
These Maori, Chiefs wins have to be tempered by the facts that the Maoris were a team with NO AB’s & whom only get together once a century & the Chiefs had only a 1/3rd of their 1st team in their line up. The Canter win was more convincing in that they DID have 4 AB’s in their pack. However, it was only with 12 points, but NO tries – an Achilles heal?
AB’ s by 12. Due to ridiculous scheduling Lions have not had the chance to settle on combinations throughout the back line and give them sufficient game time. If AB’ s can get anywhere near parity in possession they will have too much power pace and precision from scrum half out.
AB’s @ home, b2b W Champs. Unless the Lions restrict NZ to c. 30 % possession they may find it like pushing shizen up hill with a toothpick. It’s likely who makes the best use of their possession.. for the whole 80! The breakdown will be important here, but also the line out & scrum. Each will need to c. hold their own with these aspects of play. Also the side which makes least errors & better decisions about what to do on attack will be important. Likewise, the meanest defence will play its part. NZ by 10.
So the important aspects of the game will be… Possession, breakdown, line out, scrum, attack and defense. Just about covers it eh.
Lions by 15
Bit bitchy, Matt B. I was being thorough, just like the AB’s. In order of priority, it about worked out as described didn’t you think?
I Think I have the perfect tactics to beat the All Blacks Tomorrow.
Ihave looked at our 23 man Squad and its excellent and in the interest of an even contest they should all start the match together.
To ensure a good contest the Lions should remove a player every 10 minutes so after 80 minutes both teams have 15 players.
With this in place I predict an excellent contest with the Lions superior forward power giving them a lead at half time
However as there numbers dwindle towards parity I see the All Blacks coming back into the the game and scoring a last minute try to nick at the death.
Good Luck Boys may the best team win
An even game , lions to cock up some sitters and not get the dominance they expected up front , ABs by 12
Well you got that prediction pretty much spot on!
just looking forward to a good game but
always happy to see abs loose
lions by 3
Chris
Are you unhappy then?
Good start to Williams bieng player of the series for Lions .