Well Warren Gatland still has a surprise or two left up his sleeve. The Lions go into the second test against New Zealand knowing nothing less than victory means the series is dead and buried, and the coach has rung the changes.
Some we saw coming – the writing was on the wall for George Kruis after he was picked in the midweek squad and took to the field for Courtney Lawes (who himself has made the test bench) – but others have certainly raised an eyebrow.
Let’s get the ‘other’ second row issue out the way. Alun Wyn Jones has retained his place ahead of Kruis and Courtney Lawes, and indeed Iain Henderson. It’s fair to say that decision has been the main point of dismay among you guys in the comment section and I won’t repeat the issue here, other than to say I agree with you. However, he clearly has value to the team beyond what we at home see – much in the same way Dylan Hartley has to Eddie Jones and England. Anyway, Jones will be starting Saturday, let’s hope he comes good and delivers the kind of world-class performance he did week in week out a few years ago.
Tour captain Sam Warburton coming in for Peter O’Mahony is also unsurprising. The pack was a distinct second best last weekend; their clear-outs were slow and they allowed the All Blacks to dominate the contact area. Although I feel that was a collective pack failing, something had to change and O’Mahony has paid the price to bring in Warburton. He will be tasked with ensuring quicker ball for Murray (a lack of which hampered the Lions last week and meant Murray had to kick more than he would have liked) while slowing down New Zealand’s supply.
The big shock is in the backline: Ben Te’o benched, Johnny Sexton in and Owen Farrell moving to 12. Gatland is certainly rolling the dice with this one – Farrell and Sexton have had barely any game time together and they hardly set the world alight and demanded this combination with the final 20 minutes of the first test. I was one of the guys calling for this to be the test combo before the tour, but I kind of feel it’s a bit late now. They haven’t had the game time to form the telepathic understanding necessary at this level – it will be a baptism of fire. If it works, Gatland is a genius, if it doesn’t… well its game over.
The other reason for my surprise was what it says about the game plan. The principle effect of twin-playmakers is it creates more chances for a side with a more expansive and creative backline. Well the Lions didn’t want for chances last week, what they couldn’t do was finish them. In fact, Te’o’s hard running lines were empirical to those opportunities – he fixed the New Zealand defensive line, which opened space elsewhere for Jonathan Davies to exploit brilliantly. He also shackled Sonny Bill Williams very well. This feels like a slightly panicked team change to me I am afraid. Maybe Gatland is playing a numbers game – if his team are only going to finish two out of five opportunities, he wants the two flyhalves there to ensure they have double the opportunities…
The back three are still intact – Williams costly mistake under that high ball aside, they were excellent last week and threatened the gainline on numerous occasions. I will back Williams to avoid a repeat of last week’s howler and hope he starts a couple more genius moves like the one that led to Sean O’Brien’s try. With both Farrell and Sexton on the field they can expect to see a lot more of the ball, but Daly and Watson still need to go hunting for work – make sure they are on Davies’ shoulder screaming for the ball when he makes a break and finish it off.
And what about the All Blacks? Well not much needs to be said; they were brilliant last week and will be brilliant again this week. The Lions just need to be better.
They have made two player changes and one positional; Israel Dagg moves to fullback in place of the injured Ben Smith, with Waisake Naholo coming in on the wing, while Anton Lienert-Brown replaces the also injured Ryan Crotty at outside centre.
This doesn’t really weaken the New Zealand team – the new men are fantastic players and Israel Dagg is more comfortable in his favoured position of 15 anyway. That said, with Naholo on one wing and the relative rookie Rieko Ioane on the other the All Blacks have swapped a little more experience and security for raw attacking ability. With two flyhalves in the Lions team, they must attack that with a smart kicking game – not just putting up high box kicks from Connor Murray. They need to kick the corners, turn the instinctively attack-minded wingers and get in behind them.
Warren Gatland has made his choices. He has bet it all on a slightly risky selection, but then there is no point in him playing it safe. This team is packed with talent and certainly has the potential to beat the All Blacks, and by picking this team, Gatland shows he thinks he can win, instead of selecting a side based on damage limitation. I for one hope the players deliver for him and it turns out to be the most inspired decision of his coaching career (at least we can stop talking about when he dropped Brian O’Driscoll four years ago). Will it happen? Journalist head says no, Lions-fan heart says yes.
Play smart, smash the contact area and give Murray quick ball. When those chances come, finish them, and keep that penalty count down. Come on guys!
My prediction: Lions by 1.
By Henry Ker
Good god, this author is so deluded. First game Lions by 2 and this one Lions by 1.
Itll be NZ by 15-20 or even more. Lions are done. Gatland is a fool and the picks are a proper gamble. How the hell does Farrell still start and AWJ.
Hmmmmm
The whole article was truthful and insightful. highlighting the weaknesses and addressing the key areas the Lions need to get it right.
Then comes the last line where it moved into the realm of fantasy ignoring all the challenges that face the lions and hoping for the best.
Forwards improved but to still lack bite. Sexton Farrell won’t work unless they are running some slick backs moves and without Teo to fix the defence NZ will be able to drift and cover too easily plus defensively weaker team
NZ by 25
I think this Lions by 1 prediction is more in hope than expectation. The odds are significantly against the Lions, and the safest prediction is a 3-0 series whitewash by the All Blacks.
I’m picking the Lions on Superbru, but I can’t see it happening unfortunately.
I’m hoping for a Lions win, but let’s be realistic the ABs are the best team in the world and the Lions are a scratch team albeit with some talented players in there. Heart says close game, head says ABs by some margin.
Agreed, well-written article.
I hope that the selection of Farrell / Sexton means that we will be kicking the corners more and not relying on Murray. The idea of a box kick is to try and win the ball back and this clearly didn’t happen last week (poor kick-chase / AB blockers). They should have identified this earlier and changed tactics.
In general, I thought the Lions kicked too often – tomorrow we should try to keep possession more, work the phases, look for gaps and not kick the ball away.
NZ by 32
Despite the fact I’ve got a tenner at 8/1 on lions winning exactly 4 games (their current total) on tour I’d still like to see them win of course but can’t see it happening. I made the point a fortnight ago about the importance of the way Teo straightens up to create space band this will.be sorely missed. I’m dismayed that no other player in the back seems to do this – it’s u-10s rugby basics and has nothing to do with size. I won’t waste my time on discussing the 2nd row however losing both Kruis and POM cam only have a detrimental effect I’d have thought to that particular facet. I expect a great game and the lions to play well but still reckon NZ by 11
Septimus, Davies can play this way, and i do think we’ll see more of this with either Farrell drifting behind him, or Sexton looping behind both him and Farrell. They’ll also use Watson sweeping behind as well, which is something he does very well.
I suspect also we’ll see a little bit more of O’Brien in the 10 and 12 channel from lineouts.
Blub. I did think that was the case to a degree but for me, Davies sees space and cuts great angles in a spontaneous manner (in fact probably naturally leans towards outside breaks) whereas Teos instinct is always to attack the inside shoulder. It would be a waste to have a plan to send JD up the midge repeatedly.
Henry Kerr should change his firstname to Juan
Sonny Bill will destroy Farrell and once and for all dispel the myth that he is a world class player
I’m sure he’s never heard that one before
Farrell is world class when used in the right way. Unfortunately I don’t believe that tomorrow will be one of those occasions
The joke is usually ‘Wayne’…
All a bit accademic if we dont win the breakdown. There is enough talent and guil in the backs to make opportunities ( even off the limited ball we had last week.
Fas and Sexton have to turn the AB wingers and own the corners.
Good luck Lions.
NZ by more than 15, Gatland is blind and is out of order of the nowadays modern rugby. NZ will be even better, hardened by a lions test match and the substitutes are equally dangerous that the ones they replaced.
I actually think this was very well written.
That said, I’m also of the belief that the team to seriously challenge the AB right now would probably be the AB B team.
An almost perfect demonstration of how to construct a watertight case leading to one conclusion and then ignore the evidence you have presented in your conclusion. AB’s to win by 20.
Quite funny
Walter Mitty has the Lions by 1..00!
I’m not convinced the Lions are in the right place psychologically and that all the players agree with the changes made.Happy United band?I don’t think so.Warburton has lost every game he’s played v NZ-tomorrow will be no different.NZ by 25-30.
Ok….let’s suppose we get beaten (as is most likely) tomorrow and next week; the question of ‘Could we have done better?’ will be raised.
I would suggest ‘yes’. I think squad selection was poor with at least 5-6 significant personnel exchanged IMO and this led to a public/media outcry which has intensified as Gatts has compounded our misery by continuing to make poor and undeserved selections, leading to no obvious game plan, throughout the tour. I also felt that there were a number of players taken who were never, under any circumstances, going to be used/useful in a test match. Sometimes you need to pick the half back that can come on and win you a game that’s slipping away rather than a solid dependable dirt-tracker who cannot challenge the top 2. I would say this is the case with Laidlaw and Biggar as well as Halfpenny, North and Seymour. In the forwards, potentially Scannell should have replaced Best as he’s a better No 3 hooker. The 2nd row I struggle to bring myself to talk about. In fairness, the props and back row (perhaps with the exception of Haskell, who produced his usual blood and thunder (and I mean this positively) 6.5 out of 10 every match, pretty much picked themselves once Billy had been ruled out – how I’d loved to have seen Billy at 6 along with Faletau. Naturally even WG can’t legislate completely for form dropping off – Stander, Henshaw and injury (Hogg) though perhaps, tactical and coaching variations could’ve brought out better in players. Also, how did the circus around some of WG decisions (geographical call ups etc) affect the Lions’ focus?
Anyway, I’ll prematurely opine that the tour could and should have gone much better (regardless of test series result) and suggest that the idea of having a minimum of 5 players from each home nation for future tours is very much worthy of consideration.
PS – hoping to, in a fickle about turn, be heralding WG as a lion’s saviour and rugby genius (along with Howley) after the lions win the next two games
Further to my point re: Haskell – Hamish Watson should’ve been a shoe-in as well as the Scottish centre whose name escapes me.
Would love to see a win. Don’t think it will happen though. The one area won last week – the line out – will be weaker without Kruis and POM.
NZ to win by 35 to 17. Just hope the Lions remain competitive
NZ by 12-14. The problem is the breakdown. NZ are lethal in the chaos that follows turnovers and masters at producing quick ball/offloads. Until any team can compete with them at the tempo that quick ball produces, they will continue to dominate. I think it’s a shame Tipuric isn’t at 7 as he might be able to produce quicker ball but even then, we’d still be playing catch up. When your world XV contains more black shirts than red ones, you’re always going to struggle. Let’s hope AWJ proves us all wrong and plays an absolute belter…
Oi Henry you could have mentioned that your prediction was based on AB’ playing with 14 for 60 minutes.
Bold call against the grain and only 2 points off well done
Haha cheers Leon!