Shortly after Japan’s victory on Saturday, David Denton tweeted (with accompanying emojis not reproduced here) the private thoughts of a nation: “Here’s hoping the Japanese go and get melted tonight.”  The pasting imparted to South Africa was not a smash-and-grab effort of the sort upon which Scotland have relied in victories against Southern Hemisphere sides.  The Springboks were not that bad.  

Japan’s victory amounted to the execution of a blue-print to which Scotland would very much like to play themselves.  Japan’s players are not the biggest, but dynamism – a point of difference – is common to all of them.  The collective skill level is remarkable in an era when forwards – and even some centres – can barely give and take a pass.  Most significantly, the nerve under pressure shown by the Japanese has been entirely absent even from Scotland’s most impressive performances under Vern Cotter.  This all ensures high public interest in Wednesday’s fixture and makes it genuinely difficult to pick a winner.

SCOTLAND

Having offered very gentle encouragement in the warm-up games, Cotter’s starting XV is largely predictable.  The biggest selection call comes at 12, where Matt Scott is preferred to Peter Horne.  On his best form, Scott adds greater balance to the back-line, but this has proved elusive in his return from persistent injuries, and his handling is not always in the same league.  

Defensively, the position of inside centre gains greater significance in view of the accuracy with which Japan execute set-plays.  The back-line is otherwise much as expected aside from Sean Lamont’s inclusion ahead of Sean Maitland.  Lamont’s effort is always impressive, and he continues to improve even as the end of his international career draws nearer.  

Having endured some of Scotland’s most frustrating defeats, not least in losing a winnable quarter final to Argentina in 2007, and with his brother forced to retire through injury, he has valuable experience to share with younger teammates about the importance of capitalising on their finite residence in the Scottish jersey. 

Also starting is Grant Gilchrist in place of Richie Gray, who instead features in a bench which offers game-changing power from the newly-qualified Josh Strauss, added breakdown work from Fraser Brown, and skill in the form of Henry Pyrgos and Horne.

One to watch: Greig Laidlaw

What became abundantly clear on Saturday was that Japan would not be beaten by physicality alone.  As professional players, the Japanese are well-conditioned and technically sound in defence, rendering a degree of guile, deception and variety essential in attacking them. 

In his best performances for Scotland, Laidlaw lifts the tempo and intervenes only when a genuine opportunity presents itself (see France, August 2015; Argentina, November 2014).  In his worst, he over-manages the game and kicks away good possession.  His role at Kingsholm should be to bring the forwards onto the ball at pace, ensure defensive box kicks are contestable, provide Russell with speedy service, and knock over penalties and conversions at a ground he should know well.

JAPAN

Humbling the Springboks was predictably tiring, and accordingly Eddie Jones makes six changes to his starting line-up in additional to two positional changes.  With the Japanese game-plan based more on the cohesiveness of moving parts than any one individual, the changes may not prove critical.  On the other hand, Japan will be losing 46 caps worth of experience in selecting new props Keita Inagaki and Hiroshi Yamashita.  

However, as shown against South Africa, the Japanese are skilled in the art of the quick strike, meaning that time spent scrummaging is minimised.  In the backs, Ayumu Goromaru continues as the star player at fullback, and is not entirely dissimilar to Stuart Hogg in style.

Highlanders’ scrum-half Fumiaki Tanaka always provides quick ball and, by virtue of his small stature, a threat at the fringes.  Provided fatigue is not an issue, Japan will enter Wednesday’s match confident of securing a second victory which would take them close to a place in the Quarter Finals, with only Samoa and the USA to come.

One to watch: Harumichi Tatekawa

Fly-half Harumichi Tatekawa drew comparisons to Australia’s Matt Toomua from former coach Toutai Kefu, and signed for the Brumbies in the 2014 Super Rugby season.  Playing at inside-centre on Saturday, his physicality caused Jean de Villers real issues, and Tatekawa’s influence was much responsible for the personal criticism that De Villers has received since.  Without Alex Dunbar, the Scottish midfield lacks size, and Tatekawa’s presence at 10 should hold defenders and create space outside.

PREDICTION

The result in Brighton may have a beneficial effect in focussing the Scottish mind.  Rather than seeking to win by a large margin, a victory alone, in whatever circumstances it comes, will be greeted with relief both by the players and a nervous public.  Good as Japan were on Saturday, a second victory would be at odds with their form in the last year.  Scotland by 4.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images