It would be an understatement to say that Pool B has served up the odd surprise, but while Japan’s blossoming and the Springbok apocalypse took most headlines, Scotland’s World Cup has passed with a wholly unfamiliar serenity. After comfortable wins against Japan and the USA, and philosophical in defeat against South Africa, they have ended up exactly where they expected to be three years ago – a must-win fixture against Samoa.

What was unexpected was that Samoa would have nothing to play for but self-respect, and that Japan, should Scotland lose, would have the opportunity to qualify for the quarter finals for the first time. This represents a significant change in the relative pressures on each team.

SCOTLAND

The great concern in Scottish rugby in the last 15 years has been the lack of a fly-half even remotely resembling a test match playmaker. Having finally acquired one from the unlikely source of Falkirk RFC, there has been a palpable paranoia about what a tournament-ending injury to Finn Russell would mean for Scotland’s prospects of getting out of the group.

Quite simply, Russell is the difference between the blunt Scottish attack of years gone by and the happier present, where tries are scored in single matches at a rate not that far off Scotland’s yearly return in the Six Nations between 2003 and 2014.  It was therefore to the nation’s relief that Russell recovered from an ankle sprain in time for the qualification decider.

This is the first Scotland squad – and also the first Home Nations side – to feature four players with Super Rugby experience. One unheralded benefit of the SRU’s project player strategy is that in Maitland, Hardie, Nel and Strauss they have a spine of a team brought up resisting the kind of relentless physical onslaught to be faced on Saturday.

Even without the injured Alec Dunbar and the benched Josh Strauss, this is Scotland’s best fifteen since the turn of the century. As long as Russell and Laidlaw can pull defenders apart for inroads nearer the ruck, and Matt Scott can selectively pick more direct lines in midfield, there will be sufficient time and space for Bennett, Hogg and Seymour to fulfil their attacking potential further out.

One to watch: John Hardie

If the personnel at fly-half is critical to imposing the game-plan on Samoa, then so too is that at open-side flanker.  Hardie gives Scotland an appetite for well-executed, aggressive defence not seen since the White-Hogg-Taylor back-row of the mid-noughties. Without it, Scotland were ineffective in holding the gain-line against the USA and South Africa, defending tirelessly without the capacity to turn ball over. Against Samoa, dynamic over any distance, and impossible to defend against for long periods, this will be of even greater importance.

SAMOA

Given Samoa’s reputation (richly deserved) for liberal interpretation of rugby’s rules on acceptable physical contact, it was ironic that Alesana Tuilagi be suspended this week for what appeared to be a genuine accident.  Pete Horne may be somewhat relieved.

The good news for Scotland is that at no point since the World Cup draw was made three years ago has this Samoa team looked so forlorn.  Japan’s victory was astonishingly comprehensive given what was at stake.

The bad news, however, is that the Samoans will not be content with their World Cup, and now have very little to lose. Moreover, Tuilagi is far from their only large man. The individual names on the Samoan team sheet are formidable. The back row has a real capacity for ball-carrying, and behind Kahn Fotuali’i and Tusi Pisi are serious playmakers. George Pisi is a leading Premiership 13 second only to Jonathan Joseph and may back himself against the smaller Mark Bennett.

Most coaches in the tournament would be envious of the Samoan bench, and it would be unsurprising to see a late surge.   There is, unfortunately for Horne, yet another Tuilagi, while some of the hits in Super Rugby by replacement hooker Motu Matu’u have been almost unwatchable.

One to watch: Tim Nanai-Williams

Nanai-Williams, much like Mark Bennett, benefits from a small stature in a sport over-crowded with the lumbering and immobile. His counter-attacking, not to mention his understanding with Tusi Pisi, have made him Samoa’s greatest attacking threat in this tournament.

PREDICTION

Much has been made by Vern Cotter of the need to discover the Scottish way. If it wasn’t blindingly obvious, before he took over the Scottish way is to turn even the most straightforward assignments into desperately excruciating sagas. A two to four point lead with Samoa camped on Scotland’s line in the last five minutes seems an eminent possibility to anyone who has seen Scotland defend a lead of less than 30 points in a match of any genuine significance.

In a best case scenario, Greig Laidlaw harvests Samoan indiscipline for a 12 to 15 point lead at half-time before a gifted backline open things up in the second half.   Faith must be kept. Scotland by 13.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images