European Rugby Champions Cup 2015/16: Round 1 Predictions

Toulon

Pool 1

The biggest game of the weekend will take place at the Allianz Park on Saturday evening when Premiership leaders Saracens host European Cup giants Toulouse.

Sarries are unbeaten this season and have the most miserly defence in the Premiership but they will be without one of their ‘Wolf Pack’ on Saturday because of a one match ban to tackling machine Jacques Burger after he was cited in the week for acts contrary to sportsmanship. Although at home, Saracens may choose to keep the ball tight and play territory rather than give an exciting Toulouse back three an opportunity to attack from deep.

Toulouse did the double over Saracens two years ago and brings an incredibly strong squad over to England to try and replicate their success from 2013/14. Louis Picamoles coming up against Billy Vunipola will be a fascinating battle and with Burger suspended, Toulouse may see the breakdown as an area that they could exploit. That said, Saracens have shown how to grind out results whilst demonstrating impeccable discipline in defence and this will give them the edge with home advantage.

The other game in this group sees Ulster travel to Oyonnax expecting to pick up a bonus point win over a team struggling just one place above the bottom of the Top 14. The French outfit do boast a host of experienced European players including former Ulsterman and 2012 Heineken Cup finalist Pedrie Wannenburg but their recent form would suggest that they will struggle here.

Ulster have some major injury troubles with Tommy Bowe, Jared Payne and Iain Henderson all out with long term injuries but there is still too much experience in this Ulster squad to not come away with a win.

Saracens v Toulouse: Saracens by 3
Oyannox v Ulster: Ulster by 12

Pool 2

Don’t let the Top 14 table and Bordeaux’s league position deceive you coming into this match as they have already recorded one draw against their opponents, Clermont, this season.

The last time Bordeaux played in this competition was in 1998 though and Rafael Ibanez’ charges will need a big performance if they are to overturn last year’s runners up. There are but a scattering of household names in their team but a partisan crowd will certainly help their cause.

Clermont can now rightfully say that they have European pedigree after making the final two out of the last three seasons. They also have a squad littered with global stars that know how to manoeuvre themselves through a group stage. Clermont will have too much for their inexperienced counterparts even though they are away from home.

There is a potentially high scoring encounter ready to be played out in Wales on Sunday evening when the Ospreys host Exeter in Swansea.

Domestically, the Ospreys have only beaten Italian opposition and have been beaten at home in all but one of their league matches but it does have to be noted though that they have had a host of International players return to their side in recent weeks and the likes of Dan Biggar, Alun-Wyn Jones, Dan Lydiate and Justin Tipuric would strengthen any team in European rugby.

Exeter have been mightily impressive in the Aviva Premiership this season however. Gareth Steenson, man of the match last weekend against Leicester has steered the Chiefs towards the top of the table but it is their youthful and exuberant style of selection and play that has stood out the most this season and they will undoubtedly play with no fear and ultimately come away with a victory.

Bordeaux-Begles vs ASM Clermont Auvergne: Clermont by 15
Ospreys vs Exeter Chiefs: Exeter by 12

Pool 3

Glasgow could potentially be one of the most dangerous teams in this competition and travelling to Racing 92 on Saturday, buoyed after their win in Cardiff last time out, could be the best opportunity they have to catch the Parisians out. Since their World Cup players have returned, the Warriors have looked a completely different outfit in both attack and defence. They have a new, lead from the front style captain in Jonny Gray and with his second row partner Leone Nakarawa, the reigning Pro12 champions will fancy disrupting Racing’s ball whilst also laying a platform for their dynamic backline, which includes Scotland’s star full back Stuart Hogg, to cause some damage.

Racing may be third in the Top14 having only lost two games this season so far but their points scored is actually two less than they have conceded. They were on the wrong end of a 26 point defeat to Castres last weekend but expect the big spenders from the capital to come good on their home turf this weekend. When their games have been close this season, and we expect this to be, Racing have seen off the opposition so a close fought victory will for the home team will be on the cards this time round.

After a defeat that lacked any real attacking quality last weekend, Northampton Saints will be looking to open up and aggressively attack the Scarlets at Franklin’s Gardens this weekend. This will be harder than they think though as the men in red only lost for the first time this season last weekend. Saints on the other hand have been poor by their own very high standards. They have only one win from four to their name.

DTH Van de Merwe is now a household name in the rugby world and if he is allowed time and space then Ben Foden may find himself busy as the Saints last line of defence, The Saints’ own Luther Burrell on the other hand has a rather large point to prove, or not as the case may be depending on how you view the current England climate, so expect a big, hard hitting performance from him as Northampton should take this by a short head with the chance that they may score less tries than their opposition.

Racing 92 vs Glasgow: Racing by 8
Northampton Saints vs Scarlets: Saints by 4

Pool 4

Leicester hosting Stade Francais used to send a little shiver of excitement down ones spine but this game, played on a cold Friday night in Leicester, has all of the ingredients to be quite a drab affair.

Leicester were not at their best last weekend in defeat to Exeter and although Stade are struggling with their league position they did manage to turnover Clermont. They have also welcomed back with open arms their talismanic captain Sergio Parisse who has invariably made a huge difference to their setup by his mere presence. Julian Dupuy returns to his former club and his battle with Ben Youngs will be key to whoever triumphs from this battle along with their half back partners. Morne Steyne may not be as exciting with ball in hand as Owen Williams but if he is given time to manage the game with his trusty right boot then it could be a long night for Matthew Tait as he chases the ball around the back field. Leicester at home on a Friday night will be the biggest extenuating factor though as Willaims should get more shots at goal than his South African opposite number.

Munster have the easiest game of the weekend. Hosting Benetton Treviso who have a 100% loss rate will prove all too easy and turn into a training run at Thomond Park. Treviso have actually secured four losing bonus points out of seven games but playing the Munster men in their own back yard on a European weekend will just be too much to handle.

Leicester Tigers vs Stade Francais: Tigers by 3
Munster vs Benetton Treviso: Munster by 28

Pool 5
Every year a pool of death is formed out of the velvet bag and Pool 5 is just that. Something will have to give as four previous winners battle it out for supremacy.

If Bath didn’t have Francois Louw back in their ranks this weekend then you probably wouldn’t have given them the slightest sniff of a chance of getting any quick ball let alone pulling off a shock victory at the Stade Felix Mayol this Sunday but as it is, Louw has proved himself as a world class operator at the breakdown and he has a chance to prove this again at the weekend against Steffon Armitage. This has to be the head to head of the weekend…….or is it Quade Cooper against George Ford? We could name at least 3 or 4 more sumptuous battles across the park and although we can expect Bath to score some tries, is it realistic to think that they can score anywhere near as many as Toulon will? Doubtful!

Leinster host Wasps to rekindle a rivalry with a familiar foe. Johnny Sexton looks likely to make his eagerly awaited return for Leinster in European competition but will unfortunately not be able to line up opposite the man that replaced him last year, Jimmy Gopperth, as he is serving a three match ban after an altercation at Leicester. This is a big blow for Wasps as he has been one of the constants in their team all season and has really made them tick.

Leinster are unbeaten at the RDS this season so this just sway in the way of the Dubliners.

Toulon vs Bath: Toulon by 14
Leinster vs Wasps: Leinster by 9

By Andy Daniel
Follow Andy on Twitter: @scrum5ive

6 thoughts on “European Rugby Champions Cup 2015/16: Round 1 Predictions

  1. Exeter by 12 pts

    Naturally as they are currently 2nd in the English League we can expect the Ospreys to fold completely or not as the case actually was.

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