The second weekend of back-to-back fixtures give those sides that lost a week ago a unique opportunity to get revenge immediately, while those that won can often all but secure qualification with a further victory. Here’s how we see the weekend going:
POOL 1
Saracens’ sublime start to the season continued last weekend at Oyonnax, where they crushed the French side. They can be considered minnows in this tournament, and will now turn their focus to the Top 14 you would imagine. A heavy win for Saracens is on the cards here.
The other, bigger, game in this pool comes from the South of France and a rugby cathedral: the Stade Ernest Wallon where Toulouse are under huge pressure to perform after they were so unceremoniously slammed by Ulster in round three. They have one win from three games and a loss here would all but destroy any hopes of qualifying, which would be a huge blow for a club with such a proud European past. Fascinatingly, the Luke McAlister/Toby Flood midfield axis has been binned altogether; neither even make the squad this weekend. Ulster were magnificent at Ravenhill last weekend; can they repeat that away in France? I expect a backlash from Toulouse, and a win that will keep their faint hopes of qualifying alive.
Saracens vs Oyonnax: Saracens by 50
Toulouse vs Ulster: Toulouse by 4
POOL 2
Exeter’s stunning win over Clermont last weekend propelled them to the top of pool two; they now face the daunting prospect of a trip to the imposing Stade Marcel Michelin. Clermont hugely struggled against the ferocity of the Chiefs’ pack a week ago, and they will not make the mistake of underestimating them again. As with Toulouse, I would expect a backlash from Les Jaunards, and while Exeter have been impressing everyone this year, the Massif Central is one of the most difficult places to win. They can push them all the way, but last season’s finalists should come away from this with a win.
Elsewhere, the Ospreys will have to be much, much better than last weekend if they are to make it two wins from two as they travel to Bordeaux. In round three they scrapped past the French side, who played much of the game with 14 men. The hosts hand a debut to Adam Ashley-Cooper, and his presence in the midfield could be enough to galvanise them to their first win in the competition this year.
Clermont Auvergne vs Exeter Chiefs: Clermont by 3
Bordeaux Begles vs Ospreys: Bordeaux by 5
POOL 3
The weekend kicks off on Friday night with Racing’s trip to Northampton. The Parisian aristocrats again name Dan Carter with Mike Phillips in the half-backs, a combination that propelled them to a hugely impressive win over the Saints last weekend. Northampton bring in Stephen Myler to steady the ship at fly-half. Much will depend on how the game is played. If Northampton can keep it tight and force Racing to concede penalties, they can win – but if it opens up, Carter has so much talent to aim for that Racing could run rings around the Saints once again. The Saints have some demons to vanquish, after Racing demolished them at the Gardens last season to end their European hopes. I think Mallinder et al will have lit a rocket under them; expect to see a very different Northampton performance this weekend.
Elsewhere Glasgow travel to Scarlets after finally kicking their season into gear with a strong win at Scotstoun last weekend. Giant wing Taqele Naiyarovoro bagged a hattrick in that game, and even though the Scarlets will undoubtedly keep an eye on him, he is so lethal it may not matter. The PRO12 champions should be good enough to make it back-to-back wins, but at the Parc y Scarlets it will be much closer than round three.
Northampton Saints vs Racing Métro: Northampton by 6
Scarlets vs Glasgow Warriors: Glasgow by 2
POOL 4
Munster travel to Leicester with the wrath of their fans ringing in their ears; the reaction of the Thomond Park faithful to last weekend’s home loss – in which they failed even to manage a bonus point – has been less than positive. In truth, this is one of the lowest ebbs that the Irish giants have known in recent times. They bring in experienced Aussie Mark Chisholm to the engine room in the hope that he can provide some inspiration. The Tigers are steadily improving with every game – Freddie Burns moves into the 10 shirt this week, making his first appearance since a jaw injury in pre-season. They will look to get Tongan rocket Telusa Veainu on the ball early once again, after he danced his way past Munster defenders at will last weekend. All in all, it’s tough to see anything other than a home win here.
In the other pool four game, perennial whipping boys Treviso travel to Stade Français to receive another humbling defeat. Honestly, their value in this tournament seems to decrease year on year, and after shipping 50 points at home last weekend, it could get ugly in Paris.
Leicester Tigers vs Munster Rugby: Leicester by 9
Stade Français vs Benetton Treviso: Stade by 52
POOL 5
As always, we save the best til last. Toulon were gritty in beating Leinster last weekend; they showed power but lacked cohesion, particularly at the set piece. With that in mind, Jocelino Suta and Juan Smith are brought in to shore up the line-out. Their star-studded backline continues, but given how badly they struggled on the road to Wasps in round two, Leinster will fancy an upset here and will be buoyed by the scoreline in France; it was far from a cricket score. The trouble is, Toulon remain immensely powerful and Wasps only beat them by running around them and shocking them with two early tries, from which they never recovered. Do Leinster have the wherewithal at the moment to do similar? I’m not convinced.
Lastly we come to the Rec, where Wasps know they need to win having been crushed by Bath’s last minute victory at the Ricoh Arena in round three. It was an ugly game overall in horrible conditions; given the forecast this weekend, we should see more of the excellent rugby for which both sides are renowned. The visitors name Jimmy Gopperth at 10 ahead of Ruaridh Jackson, while the hosts again trust Niko Matawalu at scrum-half despite some shaky basics last weekend. Wasps have not won at the Rec since 2008 – it’s going to take a monumental effort to reverse that trend on Saturday.
Leinster Rugby vs Toulon: Toulon by 5
Bath Rugby vs Wasps: Bath by 6
How do you see the weekend going? Let us know below.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images