Cardiff Blues vs Connacht
On Friday evening, the Blues (won one, lost seven) welcome table topping Connacht (won seven, lost one). Connacht are a bit battered and bruised from their impressive win away to Munster last weekend – a win which marked them as very serious contenders for the Pro12 title this year. Despite their league position, Cardiff are actually the Pro12’s second top try scorers to Connacht and lost out to them earlier in the season in a thrilling 36-31 game. Wales international Alex Cuthbert makes his comeback as head coach Danny Wilson makes five changes to the side that narrowly lost out to Ospreys in the derby last week. With a short turnaround for Connacht, they have made eight changes to their starting XV including a whole new front-row.
Based on form and league position this should be an away win, however the Blues continue to be very competitive, and this might just be the night to catch out a Connacht team missing a few key players. Blues by 3.
Ulster vs Edinburgh
It’s a real mid-table clash in this game at the Kingspan with both team sitting on 23 points in sixth and seventh position respectively. A win for either side will propel them into serious play-off contention. Ulster lost narrowly away to Leinster last time out, whilst Edinburgh recorded a very solid home win against the Dragons. The two teams met earlier this season with Edinburgh running out 16-10 winners. Rob Herring, who signed a two-year contract extension with Ulster this week, will replace Rory Best as hooker and captain in a strong looking team. Edinburgh are nursing a long injury list but are still able to field their much vaunted front row of Dickinson, Ford and Nel.
Despite Ulster’s erratic away form, they are still mightily difficult to beat at home, and if they can get some parity in the scrum where Edinburgh are at their strongest, then Ulster should come out on top. Ulster by 5.
Benetton Treviso vs Scarlets
Treviso performed well in defeat to the Warriors last week losing only 13-6. The Scarlets returned to winning ways at home to Zebre. Treviso captain Alessandro Zanni will make his 100th appearance whilst for the Scarlets John Barclay remains as captain but moves to his more preferred position of openside flanker. Morgan Allen comes in at number 8 looking to make his first competitive start and Jake Ball makes a return to the second row. The only change in the backline is the inclusion of Michael Tagicakibau.
If the Scarlets can edge the forward battle then their back division should get enough ball to win the game, although perhaps not by as much as expected. Scarlets by 7.
Glasgow Warriors vs Leinster
Glasgow were distinctly average in last week’s victory over Treviso and looked anything but defending champions. They are not yet firing on all cylinders and are struggling particularly in the front row. It is here that Leinster will attack them, and they will take confidence from beating the Scots earlier in the season at the RDS. There are a number of changes for the Warriors including half-backs Duncan Weir and Mike Blair who both start. Fijian star Leone Nakarawa makes his 50th appearance. There are no fewer than eight changes for Leinster; Rob and Dave Kearney both come in, and there is a completely new front row of Cian Healy, Richardt Strauss and Marty Moore.
Although they are coming up short in Europe, Leinster still look very competitive in the domestic league. History tells us that this will be close game but the visitors are fielding a very strong team and look to have found a little more form to date. Leinster by 2.
Newport Gwent Dragons vs Munster
The Dragons’ indiscipline cost them dearly against Edinburgh last week, where they had four players yellow carded and ended up on the wrong end of a 32-13 defeat. Munster also had a bad day at the office losing to Connacht in a table topping clash at Thomond Park. Both coaches will demand improvement, but perhaps Munster will be smarting slightly more and we should expect to see a big reaction from them. The Dragons welcome back Welsh No 8 Taulupe Faletau whilst Munster make ten changes; Denis Hurley is named as captain while Niall and Rory Scannell will become the first brothers to start together for Munster in the Pro12.
The Dragons have only won one of the last nine encounters with Munster, and even if they do keep all the players on the pitch this week, it is unlikely they will buck that trend. Munster by 9.
Zebre vs Ospreys
The Italians have been pretty effective at home over the last few weeks and are looking for their fourth straight home win after beating Edinburgh, Cardiff and Worcester. Their team manager Andrea De Rossi has been bemoaning their slow starts in games, and this week gives another opportunity to former All Black Mils Muliaina at full-back. The Ospreys however beat them 36-3 when they played at the Liberty Stadium just four weeks ago and are now starting to put a run of good results together. They bring back in a number of players including Josh Matavesi, Sam Davies and James King.
The Ospreys will win this game, but only if they produce a top level performance. If they are off the pace or take anything for granted, then Zebre will be looking at another home victory. Ospreys by 6.
By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
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Personally I think the Welsh teams will put their Italian opponents away far more comfortably that predicted and Connacht are playing too well for Cardiff to sneak a win. 2nd highest tries tally is all well and good but 10 of those were vs Zebre and when you are giving away so many points as to still lose 7/8 games you need to look at your defence when playing the team with the highest try tally
Some of these predictions are more than a little out of kilter especially the Dragons v Munster game. Superb display from them this afternoon and a really good win for the Blues v the then league leaders. Then factor in the Ospreys with a Tipuric inspired 5 points v Zebre …..not a bad weekend all round really. Oh yes and a team from Carmarthenshire won under controversial circumstances it appears.