For Saturday’s game I predicted a scrappy match, lacking in rhythm, with the Lions eventually earning an easy victory by 25 points.
Well I got the first part right… the less said about the score prediction the better.
There is no let up as the Lions take on the Blues on Wednesday. There are some notable faces in the Blues side – namely All Blacks and fringe All Blacks like Charlie Faumuina, Steven Luatua, Augustine Pulu, the Ioane brothers and (maybe) Sonny Bill Williams – and they should certainly offer a higher standard of opposition than the Barbarians (who it must be said, performed admirably).
In his bid to get everyone meaningful game time early on, Warren Gatland has named a completely different starting XV. So any little cohesion (eventually) formed by the Lions team on Saturday will be irrelevant, and with only a few extra days training it seems unlikely we will see the unified team display so missing against the BaaBaas. At least they should be over their ‘jetlag’ by now.
That said, they can’t be as bad again can they? There are also a few more familiar partnerships on display – the English locks of Itoje and Lawes, the Welsh half-backs Webb and Biggar, while there is an Irish centre partnership in Henshaw and Payne, and the English wings Nowell and Daly. Also there was the sense several notable Lions were just trying too hard to press their individual cases on Saturday – hopefully this Lions side will have taken note of that and realise the key to victory is a team performance.
My main worry is the unfamiliarity between the back-row and the front-row. All three players in each row are formed from three different countries – with guys like Haskell and Owens arriving late thanks to their involvement with league finals. They will have to form cohesive units quickly if they are to triumph over a very capable Blues team.
Gatland and the Lions coaches have talked about it not being a catastrophe if they lose one or two of the warm up matches – well this could certainly be one of those. The Blues are not the strongest warm-up opposition the Lions will face but given the rustiness the Lions exhibited in their first match this is a real banana skin. Some of these Blues players also have points to prove for All Blacks selection.
However, I am still going to back this Lions team to come out on top (just). There is such quality throughout the side and a sprinkling of familiar partnerships should hopefully help them gel a little better than in the previous match – and I think they will edge a tight and tense affair.
My prediction: Lions by 3
Average Superbru prediction: Lions by 6.78
What is your prediction for the match?
By Henry Ker
Improved Lions performance but Blues by 10
They may be the weakest franchise in NZ but they have the benefit of catching the Lions early on while they still have their full compliment of internationals and the Lions haven’t built that playing relationship
Agreed, I can’t see the Lions getting a win.
Interesting comment on Brian Moore’s latest podcast that we might see Gatland slowly gravitate towards a Saracens core in his selection. If they continue to look disjointed, I can see the logic in getting as much familiarity and cohesion from a successful team as possible on the pitch.
Much as I love the idea of a Saracens core, I would think Gatland is more likely to pick a Welsh core, as he is more familiar with them?
So a starting 15 with Mako, George, Itoje, Kruis and Farrell. Well it might help in the tight five, but it won’t make any difference to the back line.
Will he revert to type and pick a predominantly Welsh back line. Will we see Webb, Williams, Farrell, T’eo, JD, North and Halfpennty lining up for the first test. God I hope not!!
Sounds about right to me Sarries core in the pack and a Welsh core in the backs sounds exactly like Gatland.
Read something saying that bringing a physical direct edge is the best way for the Lions to play given the fact that we won’t beat them at their own game and the time the players have to gel together and learn the system
The problem I see with this approach is getting the mix of physical direct edge and the ability to adapt when it goes wrong, which (no offence to anyone) Wales have clearly not had in recent times. We know the ABs will be looking to exploit the Lions failings in selection, and I think having a combo of T’eo/Henshaw and JD is a mistake. I think JJ or Daly in the 13 shirt would be a better fit to beat the ABs. With North on the wing you have the ability to bring in a second big ball carrier into the midfield if needed.
Blues by 10
Lions to win by 6 points or more.This is the third game in just 12 days for the Blues.Lions freshness and superior bench will show in the end.