It is quite remarkable that World Rugby has managed to alienate, in the space of a few short weeks, a public formerly in rapturous praise of this tournament. A high-handed and self-righteous governing body has deprived them of seeing the very best players in action. There is a particular disgruntlement in Scotland, where Jonny Gray and Ross Ford faced bans for what was, at worse, clumsiness, dismissed as such by the referee on the day.

In contrast, in the last two weeks, Michael Hooper has sunk his shoulder into Mike Brown’s head off a ten yard run-up and fellow Australian back-rower, David Pocock, saw fit to remove a Welsh hanger on by thrusting his knee into the opponent’s chest. The former plays on Sunday in an Australian pack whose task has already been made far easier by bans for Scotland’s most capped squad member and their most promising tight-forward for some years. Scottish bitterness – whether justified or not – can only be soothed by a victory against all odds.

SCOTLAND

Vern Cotter’s selection is a significant departure from what has come before, and is not just the result of suspensions and injuries.

The focus on the breakdown is evident. Fraser Brown is an exceptional player, but considerably different in style to Ford. Brown offers speed around the pitch, and, as a former flanker, much needed skill at the breakdown to combat Hooper and Pocock. While Matt Scott is changed for Pete Horne because of back pain, the introduction of Blair Cowan at blind-side for Ryan Wilson suggests that there is a real fear of being rucked out of the game.

Throughout his time in charge of the squad, Cotter has favoured either a ball-carrying 6 or Rob Harley, used for the purposes of general disruption. Only in the warm-up match against Ireland- and for the purposes of game time rather than tactics, has he picked an open-side at 6. This selection aims to help John Hardie, so often a lonely presence at the breakdown in this tournament. Scotland will look to break up a game which the Australians will run with typical rigour and organisation.

While there is no doubt that the Australians are a better side on paper and in form, there is no nation as good as Scotland at producing a performance when cast as hopeless underdogs. There is, without doubt, a human element to the suspensions that should inspire some fury. Ross Ford has played in some very average Scotland squads and endured all kinds of disappointment. He is unlikely to make the next tournament. His disciplinary record is exemplary. This quarter-final has been taken from him by a sanction disproportionate to the circumstances. This alone should an extra motivation.

One to watch: Tim Swinson

By default, Scotland must now play their third and fourth choice second rows, without cover on the bench. Swinson can definitely add to the team in terms of ball-carrying, but is effective in that regard for the very same reasons he is a limited second row – his stockiness. Swinson shoulders a huge responsibility in replacing Jonny Gray. It will need to be the game of his career.

AUSTRALIA

Australia’s rare defeats against Scotland have come in the context of atrocious weather (Newcastle, 2012) or a real off-day (as at Murrayfield in 2009). That seems unlikely given their superb performance in this tournament.

Much has been made of their attack against England and defence against Wales, but what underpins that is their sheer control of games. This comes from, firstly, each player’s remarkably comfortable handling, and secondly, a reinvigorated tight game. The Scots should be concerned that the Australian tight five, which would have been generously classed as journeyman five years ago, have become amongst the most impressive at this tournament.

Sekope Kepu is both a rock at the scrum and a mixture of Scott Gibbs and Sonny Bill Williams with ball in hand. Scott Sio has been transformed into one of the best scrummaging looseheads in the world, while Stephen Moore all of a sudden looks like an inspirational leader of men. Kane Douglas, inconspicuous in his time at Leinster, was excellent against Wales. Of course, the return of Michael Hooper after a paltry one week ban only serves to heighten the sense of injustice at the Gray/Ford outcomes.

David Pocock and Israel Folau have failed to recover from knocks sustained against Wales – their places in the team go to Ben McCalman and Kurtley Beale respectively.

While Will Genia may not have been firing on all cylinders, outside him Bernard Foley has masterminded this team to the top of the pool of death, ably aided by his experienced lieutenant Matt Giteau in the 12 shirt. What a masterstroke it has proved to bring him out of self-enforced international retirement.

One to watch: Tevita Kuridrani

While Australia’s 10 and 12 have gained deserved praise, Kuridrani has been quietly effective. This Sunday, however, he plays against one of the smallest centre partnerships in the tournament. Whilst both Mark Bennett and Pete Horne can tackle, the Australian 13 is likely to dominate collisions and win the gain-line.

PREDICTION

Even with the inclusion of two specialist opensides, you sense Scotland will struggle at the breakdown, and have been shorn of their full potential at the set piece. The Australians have the capacity to play the game according to the conditions and modify their game-plan as they go, drawing Scotland’s sting before opening up later on. Australia by 18.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images