After emerging victorious from what was billed as the “biggest Anglo-Welsh contest ever”, Wales head home to the Millennium Stadium to face Fiji in the third round of fixtures in Pool A. A Welsh bonus point victory would put them in a good position for qualification for the quarter finals, whilst Fiji are still looking for their first win of the tournament.
The last time these two sides met was a drab 17-13 Welsh win at the same venue last Autumn.
WALES
Three enforced changes for Wales in the backs as full-back Liam Williams is replaced by Matthew Morgan, Alex Cuthbert comes in for Hallam Amos on the wing and Tyler Morgan lines up in Scott William’s berth at outside centre. The bench features the welcome sight of the recalled James Hook for his third World Cup.
The forwards are given a chance to redeem and prove themselves after suffering at the set piece in the first half against England. Bradley Davies and Alun-Wyn Jones line up together in the engine room, whilst in the back row, two of Wales’s trusted triumvirate, Dan Lydiate and Taulupe Faletau, will earn their 50th caps.
In the backs, Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar are again the half-back pairing – a duo who could be crucial in Wales’s advancement to the latter stages of the tournament. Jamie Roberts, who was nullified at Twickenham, wears the 12 shirt, whilst the stuttering George North and Alex Cuthbert will hope to kick off their try scoring record in the World Cup against the Fijians.
One to watch: Dan Biggar
After a near-perfect outing against England last weekend, could there be a more important player for Wales in this tournament? Dan Biggar really stepped up a gear on Saturday night and gave a world class performance. Not only is his game management, decision making and overall defence excellent, but his kicking from hand and off the tee was quite remarkable too.
He has a higher percentage of successful kicks than Leigh Halfpenny, and on Saturday recorded the highest number of points ever scored by a Welsh player at the World Cup (23). He is more than vital for Wales.
FIJI
There are six changes for the Fijians from the side that lost to Australia last week. Most notably, the giant shape of Nemani Nadolo is absent from the wing through a one week suspension. On the other wing, speedster Waisea Nayacalevu is ruled out of the tournament with a knee injury, so Aseli Tikoirotuma and the in-form Timoci Nagusa take the spots.
Bath-bound scrum-half Nikola Matawalu also picked up an injury against Australia and Nemia Kenatale starts instead. Other changes include at hooker (Sunia Koto for Talemaitoga Tuapati), flanker (Dominiko Waqaniburotu for Peceli Yato) and centre (Lepani Botia for Gabiriele Lovobalavu).
Captain Akapusi Qera is set to become only the third Fijian to win 50 caps for their country, and at 392 caps in the starting XV, this is the most experienced Fiji side ever to play in the World Cup. The absence of Nadolo gives Montpellier’s Nagusa a start – currently the top try scorer in the French Top 14 this season. Perhaps the most notable face for Welsh fans is that of Ospreys favourite Josh Matavesi on the bench, a gifted player who can operate anywhere along the backline.
One to watch: Leone Nakarawa
To score four tries in four games is impressive for any player, but this is the kind of try-scoring record you would expect from an in-form winger, not a second row. Nakarawa touched down four times during this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, a tournament which Fiji have won three times.
Nakarawa plys his trade at Glasgow Warriors, and helped the side to a second successive PRO12 final this year, eventually being named Man of the Match in their win over Munster. His offload game is strong, and given the shakiness of the Welsh lineout last weekend, he could be a real handful for Wales.
PREDICTION
I’ve heard this game referred to as a “banana-skin” for Wales, and given their injuries and Fiji’s determination to finish third in Pool A and take a major scalp in this World Cup, it might not be far wrong.
However, the quality Wales have is still superior to that of Fiji’s, and playing in the cauldron of the Millennium Stadium in front of a buoyant Welsh crowd, I would expect Wales to win fairly comfortably. Fiji will make themselves known though. Wales by 13.
By Jack Hoare (@jackhoare)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
Win and Bp Wales by 27
I think Wales will win but given the short turnaround and the lack of squad rotation, I would be surprised if you pick up the bonus point. A lot of tired bodies out there
No problem for Wales this a walk in the park #Rwc2015
A shame that both Nadolo and Matawalu won’t be playing. That weakens Fiji significantly
If Wales don’t take this for granted and start palying some kind of sevens-esque rugby then they should win at a canter
I, of course, will be cheering for Fiji…
I think Matawalu may be a bigger (although not in physical reality) loss than Nadolo (although I know nothing about the replacement scrum half). With both out, I think anything less than a BP win for Wales would be a major disappointment.
Australia only scored one try from open play against Fiji , this shows how tough they are to break down so to hope for a BP is maybe a bit out of reach. They do, however, seem to have a weakness defending the rolling maul & I’m sure Wales will target that if they can get lineout close to the line.
Another factor is they seemed to fade in the last 15 minutes in their first two games, maybe a fitness issue there ?, whether Wales can take advantage of that after a Herculean effort on Saturday remains to be seen but if Matthew Morgan can last the full game & Tips to come on I fancy Wales to get some late points.
Wales by 12 ….. but no BP :(
“Win and Bp Wales by 27”
“a walk in the park”
“should win at a canter”
If this was England we would be getting slated for arrogance by now
Not having a go just pointing out that all teams fans do it. Its called Belief/Hope not arrogance.
Ironically the comments were anything but arrogant in their language in the England Fiji prediction post:
“Single figure score at the end……………… To either side”
“My heart says England….my head says it’s too close to call”
“Try bonus could prove important for England but need to secure the win first”
“I’m not going to make a score prediction,it’s too close to call”
“My head says England, but my heart is all over place prediction wise.”
“The more technical team, in England, will come away with it in the end. I expect a tough game”
Ironic you mentioning this Leon since you were among the few (in fact probably the only one?) on the Eng Wal prediction post mentioning the Eng selection being good enough for a BP win against Wales but you think they’d lose to Aus… I know you’ve since clarified it was a bit of mucking about but you were, stretching back a few months, fairly dismissive of Wales chances against Eng.
Anyway, I think we’re all agreed that arrogance is now a word we are sick of seeing – I though this NZ article had an excellent paragraph on it towards the end – http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11520284
err no i didn’t predict a bonus point win Eng v Wal, I thought we were going to lose.
you must be confusing me with someone else
Apologies Leon, I am, that was Col … the one “sure” that Wales won’t win against Fiji. May his prediction accuracy continue :-)
It is a bit funny how the word arrogance is now mostly only mentioned by the English as something they are constantly accused of, but with very little, if any, of the accusing actually going on as far as I can see it? And you can’t count Enoch! ;-)
How about a truce – no accusations of arrogance as long as you lot stop moaning that you’re always being accused of being arrogant? :-)
Truce accepted.
I think my biggest issue is I sometime read the BBC comments which are riddled with accusations. Seen a few on here but never from your good self
Closest I got to offering a prediction was this
http://www.therugbyblog.com/rugby-world-cup-2015-england-team-to-play-wales
“So same forwards as last week means that we are going to lose the scrums and have a slightly shaky lineout.
Selecting Farrell at 10 means he will stand deeper, making it hard for burgess to get over the gain line. If we lose the gainline battle we will lose the breakdown too.
Our best players in this team are in the back 3 but they aren’t going to see the ball due to low possession and two centers with slow hands and a truck it up the middle mentality.
Congratulations Wales and good luck for the rest of the tournament. :-(“
Reply keeps getting stuck – did you see D’Arcy’s demolition job on Burgess in the Irish Times? Ouch.
Also think it is hilarious to see the Aussies getting their scrum whines in early – http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/?p=87053
Hey Brighty, when you post links in your comments we have to approve it. I try to keep on top of it but they can get lost sometimes! Use Twitter to give us a nudge if it keeps happening.
Great article in NZ Herald.
If I may, I think there’s also a difference between confidence (born from a strong performance and momentum coupled with self-belief) and arrogance (an assumption you should win, or in some way are entitled to win).
And to be clear I’m not saying which teams or sets of fans have which… merely that there are some who take victory as an entitlement (we will win because we are better, and if we lose it’s exactly that – NOT the other team winning). As a Welshman I find myself in the unusual position of believing we can achieve something here, where previously I thought it unlikely. Wales by 15 – hopefully sooner than later so key players can come off and get straight into their cotton wool blankets for a week.
… and “should win at a canter” was a prediction by an Englishman, not a Welshman, if we are going to start analysing such things.
I also suspect that Mr Plaatjes, who predicted the “walk in the park” may not be Welsh.
So 1 Welshman predicting a 27 pt win and a BP….
It’s not a case of arrogance I don’t mean to dismiss Fiji but most of the time teams do and this time garland hasn’t by pushing players and telling them we need the win not just we will win but it’s vital. Players will be playing with confidence and Fiji are missing to big players. They struggled against a maul and bigger will target that with his kicking we are going in with more info than England and Aus so we can exploit it.
If this was game 1 it would be by 10 but it’s not and I back our fitness over them in expecting a close first 40 then to take advantage in 2nd half.
Whilst Wales don’t have the most technically efficient squad in the world they are one with stamina which will be pivotal
Wales by 8. Tough, tough first half, hopefully finishing with us ahead on the board by some amount. Then fitness will hopefully hold it together for one more half, especially with the bench on from about 50 on. Charteris at that point will start using the lineout as a weapon.
May just about do enough to sneak a bonus point – I hope we do. I’d be 90% happy with the win, 100% happy with the BP, so let’s just go for a win.
I’ve just read the following article in the DT – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/11900920/Rugby-World-Cup-2015-How-England-can-still-qualify-from-Pool-A-and-reach-the-quarter-finals.html – laying out the points permutations of the group. It’s the DT so it’s focused on England’s progress really, but I think you should be very hopeful that Wales do get the 4 try BP vs Fiji
IF England beat Australia (which they have to really to have a realistic chance to progress) but Aus get the losing BP – and then Wales lose to Aus (with losing BP) then a 4 try BP against Fiji makes the difference between Wales topping the group (scenario 1) and coming third (scenario 3). Without the BP vs Fiji, the Aus game may become a must win (or draw) for Wales. Interestingly I’ve only just learned head to head comes above points difference in the end.
Of course there’s a lot of assumptions in there and anything could happen yet, but I think the BP vs Fiji may prove crucial in the end (IF England can beat Aus).
How can head to head come above points difference? That’s just absurd
Ah I presume you’re referring to points for and against rather than win and bonus points
Apologies! Should think before typing
I know it’s just going to sound like convenience but …
I prefer a system where head to head is the 2nd decider. At the mo we have
Group pts (incl. bonus pts)
Head to Head
Pts for/against
I prefer
Group pts (no bonus pts)
Head to head
Pts for/against
Imagine a three team group, A, B, C.
A beats B
both beat C
B beats C with 4 tries
A beats C with 3 tries.
I put more value in Team A beating Team B than Team B getting a BP win against Team C but at the mo the latter is deemed more important. So, for example, we could have scenarios where Eng beat Aus but due to bonus pt shenanigans Aus and Wal qualify – or Wal beat Eng but Eng qualify, etc.
I am genuinely not saying this just because of concerns over the week ahead. In small groups where there is no (technically) home advantage I am more interested in head to heads than BPs for tries – for the latter the relative tiredness, schedule, resting players, etc. becomes too important. In big and long leagues with home + away matches then yes, BPs, but not in one off concentrated tournaments.
For example if, as we are led to believe, Fiji have targetted Wal in this tournament and this stops Wal getting a BP* then this could be the thing that stops Wal qualifying. So Fiji, a team beaten by everyone, have the deciding vote because of who they decided to really go for it against…
* I am not discounting this also stopping Wal getting a win. That puts Wales out anyway if they lose to Aus as well.
Yes, I’d agree with this. One team beating another should definitely be more important than how they both perform against a third team. Especially as the 4 try target is just arbitrary and as you say, there are so many variables – including the weather.
Another way I’ve seen is that if three teams were drawn on group points (say 12, after beating the 4th and 5th team and one of the other top three teams – no BP are used) then only the points for/against difference between the top three teams are used, ignoring the scores against the bottom two teams. That would seem more fair to me.
Am sure Wales will get a bonus point but it will be the only point achieved, this was always Fiji’s final and they have targeted the game all the time as the one to go for.
The combination of fatigue and injuries weaken Wales more than Fiji.
Wales Fans seem to be writing them off but if you looked at their game v Aussies only the Ref prevented a shock prior to half time.
Not against Wales but a Fiji supporter for this one as we(England) need all the help we can get now.
I don’t think there are many Wales fans writing off Fiji. In general, I think we’re more nervous about this one than the England game. The conditions all seem perfectly aligned for a big upset.
Well Col let’s hope that your prediction will prove as accurate as your England/Wales prediction, though I suppose the law of averages says you will get one right at some stage ! …..
only got 1 result wrong so far in a game I did say was too close to call, and a cynic would put that down to a referee failing to punish a professional foul on wales 5m line with a yellow card. Ignoring the 12 English penalties most of which resulted in welsh points of course.
Wales are so overconfident with this one it is disrespectful to Fiji
Results wise nothing has changed since beating England only a win is good enough for Wales which is why the pressure is still on.
*a handful of welsh people* are so overconfident with this one it is disrespectful to Fiji
There, I fixed it for you Col.
As for the rest of what you say … I am impressed. It’s taken nearly 3 whole days for me to see my first “it was the ref that cost us” claim from an Englishman. 3 whole days. That’s 2 days and 23 hours longer than it took after 2013.
Aye, the pressure is still on. It’s a world cup. There are no rest matches in the group of death. However, I’m much happier going into tomorrow on the back of a win than I would be going into an Aus match on Sat on the back of a loss….
Oh wow – blaming the ref!? That is one of the funniest things I’ve seen on here.
Another one of your hilarious jokes I can only assume? Much like your post about getting 4 tries pre-Wales game?
Predicted Japan to beat SA then did you? :D
Fiji are missing two of their best players. Wales are going to target the line-out and utilise the rolling maul as Fiji’s rolling maul defence has been terrible all tournament.
The scrum is a concern for Wales, Fiji got the hit on England a few times so that’s any area to be mindful of.
Fiji have tired after the 60 minute mark, whereas Wales have only got stronger, so all things considered Wales *should* come through this with a W. BP would be the cherry on top.
Cheers Brighty glad to have been of service & see maths isn’t your strong point, it’s taken me 4 days to be able to watch the game on TV – still hurts but it was fun at the game & good banter with the Welsh fans sitting in front.
I’m sure you also said somewhere that it was a definite yellow card, don’t you agree ??
I said it was indicipline that cost us, the yellow card would have changed that outcome & the momentum of the game but not necessarily the result which was a credit to the Welsh Team as I have also said before.
I don’t count Sunday. Sunday is just a blur that was half finishing off Saturday and half sleeping. Had something to celebrate.
Col if you want to talk Yellow cards then let me remind you of the Tom Woods retrospective yellow for full pelt kicking Liam Williams in the eye socket. Now at 66 minutes that really would’ve changed the game
I have not heard one Welsh man saying the Fiji game will be a walk in the park. Everyone I have spoken to are very nervous at the prospect of playing Fiji. The biggest game in 4 years for Wales. Any fan saying anything different is saying it purely for a response, so best ignored. Saying this, if Wales play to thier potential they should come away with a win. I would also like to say England did not play the ref, decisions were made that I did not agree with but evened out throughout the game. Also England panicked, made really poor decisions at crucial periods not the ref
Bonus point against a full team Fiji up for it would’ve been a big ask but I think Wales will be happy with four points and no injuries. I’m just praying the Fijians don’t break Biggar early on…
I think Wales will win score more points then the Fiji wales have happy with 4 points without get any injury 2015 Wales vs Fiji Live Stream