England arrive at Twickenham this weekend to take on the Wallabies with one final chance to grasp some sort of redemption from an autumn series that has been overwhelmingly and disappointingly negative. It has been a month defined by stodgy back play, poor tactics and a grave failure to get onto the front foot.

None of that will be forgotten if they win this weekend, but a win allied with a positive performance that goes some way to rectifying the problems listed above, and we can at least talk about progress again. The theme so far has been regression which, a year away from the World Cup, is worrying.

Their task, though, is not an easy one. The Wallabies may well be the side against which they have had the most success in recent years, but any team coached by Michael Cheika with the talent that is amongst the Australian ranks is going to be a tough nut to crack. After two losses on the bounce, they’ll be desperate to end their season on a high.

England

George Ford remains in the number ten shirt after his line-breaking performance against Samoa, this time with Billy Twelvetrees in the 12 shirt outside him. It will be intriguing to see how the two work together as both are fine distributors – if they can share the load, it should allow them both to relax a bit and focus on their decision-making, which should greatly benefit Twelvetrees, who has appeared flustered in the past.

The back three was dangerous last weekend and remains the same. Jonny May has been one of the few positives for England this series and he’ll be looking to add to his already impressive tally of three tries in as many games. Anthony Watson worked well with Mike Brown and also benefits greatly from having Ford in the number 10 shirt – his ability to track the fly-half and time his run is reminiscent of Chris Ashton when he first burst onto the scene.

The pack sees the return of Northampton duo Dylan Hartley and Tom Wood, and while they will both stabilise a set piece that should dominate the Australians, the big improvement that needs to be seen is in the ball-carrying stakes. Stats can be useless at times but they do illustrate an alarming lack of gainline penetration from the carriers in the pack – Ben Morgan aside – so far. He cannot be expected to do it all himself and others must chip in to ensure Ford has a platform from which to dictate.

Australia

Michael Cheika was always on a hiding to nothing on this tour and to be honest, he’s done quite well. The way they fought back against Ireland after slipping to a 17-0 deficit was admirable, but really what he needs to work on now is moulding the pack into one that can compete with the best, as he did at the Waratahs last season.

A hammer blow to their chances this weekend is the loss of Tevita Kuridrani, the stand out centre in world rugby this year to most people’s mind. What they lose in game-breaking potential they gain in defensive solidity, however, with Adam Ashley-Cooper moving in one and the ever-reliable Rob Horne slotting onto the wing. That said, a backline with Foley, Speight and Folau in it is still monstrously dangerous, and England will have to be at the top of their defensive game to stop them.

The pack underwhelms in comparison. Michael Hooper is a genuinely world class talent but the rest are mixture of solid, experienced operators like Rob Simmons and Ben McCalman, and rough diamonds who are full of potential but still very raw, like Sean McMahon and Sam Carter. Yes, they are better at the set piece than they used to be, but all that really means is that they’ve found ways to mask their ineptitudes in the scrum. If the referee has a backbone, England should dominate here.

All eyes on

It is a big ask for Billy Twelvetrees this weekend. He’s been fit for the entire series but not selected to start until now, which is not only a sign of the good work he’s been doing in camp but also of the lack of success of those that have filled the shirt already. There’s a sense, though, that he could thrive outside George Ford. Ford’s ability to attack the gainline should give Twelvetrees more time and space on the ball than he enjoyed outside Farrell, which means he will have more time to think clearly and make a decision. He also knows how to run hard and into a gap, something that certainly did not come naturally to Farrell last weekend. You only have to look at how Eastmond has thrived at Bath outside Ford to know that this is a huge opportunity for Twelvetrees to really impress.

On just his second capped start, Henry Speight is undoubtedly a man to watch. Those not familiar with Super Rugby could be forgiven for thinking he is a raw talent, when he is anything but. Aged 26 and with 57 appearances for the Brumbies to his name, he only recently qualified for Australia which is why it has taken him this long to feature for the national side. He is a lethal finisher who has honed his positional skills in the last few seasons and with his first experience of fully-fledged international rugby under his belt, expect him to kick on against England. If he and Folau are given time to work together, the results could be devastating.

Prediction

There’s still plenty of rugby to be played before the World Cup, but it’s hard not to look at this fixture in that context. If the Wallabies win on Saturday, they will have defeated both of their main pool rivals on the very turf they will face them in 2015. Psychologically, that is huge. For England, the present need to clear some of the despair lingering around this series is much more important. They need to make amends for two games in which their gameplan has been all wrong.

It is a big ask, but three losses from four games this autumn would be close to catastrophic. I predicted they’d win three of their four so apart from anything else, it would make me look like a monumental idiot. I’m sure that’s playing on their minds right now.

There have been glimpses of what they’re capable of, particularly with George Ford at the helm last weekend. If they can gain a platform up front and actually manage to get their forward runners busting holes in the defensive line, then they can finish the autumn on a high. England by 5.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images