Two games, two losses – this is not the preparation Lancaster, or indeed anyone supporting England, would have wanted going into the test with Samoa. It sounds like a masterclass in stating the obvious, but what it means is that instead of being able to rotate and look at a few riskier combinations, Lancaster has been forced to play it safer in the hunt for his first win of the autumn.

Samoa are, on paper, the easiest opponent England will face this autumn, but you underestimate them at your peril, as Wales found out in 2012. They have a side punctuated by experienced Premiership and Top 14 players, and the recent furore surrounding their union, and the dire situation national players face, will only fan the flames of the fire in their bellies.

England

The great talking point is, of course, George Ford’s inclusion at fly-half and Owen Farrell’s shift into the centres. Will it work? Farrell has been chastised for his appearances so far this series but perhaps the move to 12, and the lowering of expectations in terms of his playmaking, will loosen him up a bit. His combination with Barritt is a strong one from club level, but not one that has filled many fans with the hope that England will play an expansive game.

Which is, of course, a shame given the potential potency of the back three. It was easy to forget Anthony Watson and Jonny May were on the pitch last week. The latter’s unreal solo effort against New Zealand stands as the one ray of light in an otherwise gloomy autumn for England, while the former has been ripping up for Bath at will in the Premiership. They simply have to see more ball.

In the pack, Ben Morgan gets a chance to stake his claim on the number eight jersey after an impressive cameo last weekend and James Haskell joins him in the back-row, both changes with a view to giving England a bit more gainline potency. Rob Webber takes over from Hartley – who has overseen a highly successful set-piece thus far – at hooker, otherwise it’s as you were.

Samoa

There are plenty of faces that will be familiar to Northern Hemisphere fans with eight players currently plying their trade in the Premiership, and four across the Channel in the Top 14. The front row of Zak Taulafo, Tii Paulo and Census Johnstone looks immensely strong, not to mention experienced, and will certainly give the English unit a thorough examination at the set piece.

Maurie Fa’asavalu will be looking to dish out his unique brand of big-hitting punishment once again on those that he used to torment during his time at Quins, and he joins an immensely powerful back-row that also includes Bristol’s Jack Lam and London Irish’s Ofisa Treviranus.

Kahn Fotuali’i is a livewire at scrum-half but Tusi Pisi, brother of Samoan Saints Ken and George, is something of an unknown quantity. His performance will be crucial, however, given the firepower in the line outside him. Jonny Leota offers an immediate hard-running threat in the centre, with Ken Pisi, Alapati Leuia and the evergreen David Lemi comprising a back three that will certainly keep their opposite men on their toes.

All Eyes On

How could it not be George Ford? He has been hyped and hyped for a couple of seasons and now finally gets his chance for eighty minutes. He undoubtedly possesses the talents but does he have the temperament to go with them?

Much of the playmaking responsibility falls on his shoulders, given that his centres, Farrell and Barritt, have created precisely nothing so far this series. The danger is that his natural willingness to attack and take risks is scuppered by the opposing mentality of those two.

For Samoa, Jack Lam‘s is a name that may have gone under the radar to those who are not regular viewers of Championship rugby, but anyone familiar with Super Rugby will know how dangerous the former Hurricane can be. Certainly, he was good enough to keep Ardie Savea out of the side for much of last season and his signing was a real coup for Bristol.

A monster tackler (he’s Samoan, so how else would he do it) and powerful with ball in hand, he can pose England multiple headaches in both attack and defence, but with the number seven on his back he will also be tasked with causing mayhem at the breakdown.

Prediction

After consecutive losses and accompanying woeful performances, a win for England over Samoa on its own will not constitute a success – there needs to be a marked improvement in the performance to go along with it. The pack will stand up manfully at the set-piece as it always does, but they must make more yardage with ball in hand. The backs simply have to ignite and show that they are capable of creating something other than basic phase play.

This game will arguably tell us the most about England this autumn. A dogged win over Australia would be accepted – but over Samoa, a team who, for all their undoubtedly quality individuals, are a couple of rungs their inferior, England need to show there’s a bit more to them than what we have seen thus far. They’ll win, but whether they can do that is questionable. England by 15.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images