Autumn Internationals 2014: Ireland vs Australia Prediction

Going for a clean sweep this Autumn, Ireland can exceed our expectations with a win at the Aviva on Saturday. Standing in their way is a familiar face and foe in Michael Cheika’s Australia, whose narrow defeat in Paris last weekend allowed Ireland to climb up to third in the newly rebranded World Rugby rankings.

Players and coaches alike have – correctly – played down their rise in the rankings but it reflects so much of the good work done in the last 12 months that they’re the highest ranked northern hemisphere nation on merit.

Even so, to remain ahead of their southern hemisphere opponents they’ll need to avoid a repeat of their defeat in the same fixture last November when the Wallabies ran in four tries to Ireland’s none leaving Joe Schmidt frustrated by some rudimentary errors in defence.

Ireland

Ireland revert back to the same XV which so impressively dispatched the Springboks with the exception of Gordon D’Arcy coming in for Jared Payne – whose ankle injury hasn’t cleared up- and Rory Best starting instead of Sean Cronin.

Ian Madigan or Stuart Olding would have been a bold pick in the centre but in the end – or perhaps all along – Schmidt’s preference was the experienced D’Arcy, and it’s hard to argue with the addition of 157 collective caps shared between the Leinster centre and Best.

Chris Henry has been inundated with messages of support since the frightening revelation of a blocked blood vessel in his brain. It’s a huge blow to him personally, and puts the game into perspective, but the camp are hopeful of a prompt recovery and Ireland are at least well covered in a position of relative strength.

Henry’s late replacement against the Boks Rhys Ruddock, who starts on the openside again, gave a coming of age performance in green, scoring from a well executed first half maul which has become a feature of the Schmidt era with forwards coach Simon Easterby and John Plumtree, his predecessor, receiving credit.

The maul has definitely seen an autumn renaissance and Ireland are likely to use variations of this tactic both in attack and defensively against the Wallabies tomorrow but with the risk of being ‘worked out’ it’d be a surprise if Joe Schmidt hasn’t devised some cunning plan to keep the Aussies honest.

Australia

With a meeting against their RWC Pool A rivals England looming large, there was speculation that Michael Cheika could mixed things up a little after a tough test in Paris last weekend. Winning at Twickenham, where Australia will face England on 3rd Oct 2015, remains without doubt their primary target but the Wallabies have resisted across-the-board changes. That means there’s still no place in the starting xv for Will Genia, Quade Cooper and the returning Kurtley Beale.

There are four changes altogether from the side that lost in Paris with Henry Speight making his debut on the wing, Matt Toomua lining up in the centre, Luke Jones joining the back-row and Sam Carter starting at lock but otherwise this is the Aussies at full strength, clearly respecting the challenge that Ireland present.

As ever the Wallabies field an incredibly dangerous three-quarter line including the elusive Israel Folau and experienced Adam Ashley-Cooper, while in the centre the formidable presence of Tevita Kuridrani represents one of the most improved players of the last year.

Such is their attack-minded ethos the Wallabies will carry a threat from all positions, from full-back to the front-row – James Slipper is a prop whose play in the loose has caught the eye. Arguably not the best scrummager in the world, his selection is indicative of their commitment to a fast-paced game.

All Eyes On

With some notable absentees targeting a return in time to be considered for Six Nations selection there are a handful of players with a chance to push forward a claim on their particular jersey. Top of that list is Simon Zebo. Frozen out last year, injuries to Andrew Trimble and Dave Kearney provided Zebo with an opportunity to prove his worth to Joe Schmidt.

There has been a long standing perception that Zebo is ‘flashier’ than Schmidt would like. A wildcard – certainly; an incredible talent – undoubtedly; but not a player that the perfectionist in Joe Schmidt believes is prepared to play an unselfish role. Joe has therefore put his faith in others, and been rewarded. Trimble was the Irish player of the year, and David Kearney couldn’t have been far behind, but Zebo can follow their lead. Consistency is the key, and a disciplined performance against the Boks is hopefully a sign that he’s beginning to take that on board, even if he wavered slightly with the Georgians in town.

We could highlight any number of Wallabies to keep an eye on such is the talent in their squad. However, if you’re looking for the man whose impact will have the biggest say on the outcome of the game, the only choice is Michael Hooper. The Aussie captain, and winner of the illustrious ‘John Eales Medal’ in 2013, is the quintessential openside, there are many impressive aspects to his game but to summarize, he’s an absolute pain on the ground for any opposition and the perfect link man between forwards and backs which make Australia’s fast paced game possible.

The Waratah has deputised for long-term absentee David Pocock in the openside position, and it’s a true measure of his talents that Pocock, once regarded as the only openside to challenge Richie McCaw as the world’s best, has scarcely been missed.

Prediction

Incredibly difficult to call. Australia will ask more questions of Ireland defensively than the Springboks did two weeks previously, so from that perspective it’s a positive to have Gordon D’Arcy back organising the midfield. Tactically – and I’m trying to avoid second guessing Joe Schmidt – Ireland may opt to kick less possession, because Israel Folau is not a player to kick loosely to, and they should theoretically be able to win more of the collisions against the Wallabies.

Defensively, there are holes in the Australian line, particularly after the second and third phases, which the likes of Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney can exploit. Negating the threat of Hooper is crucial as he could be the match winner, but I’m reluctant to go against Schmidt again after predicting a loss to the Boks. Ireland by 5.

By Dave Blair (@viscount_dave)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images