Here are my picks for the final round of Aviva Premiership matches.
Worcester v Leicester
A win for the Tigers sees them qualify for the playoffs, and I can’t see them letting that opportunity slip away against the Warriors with nothing to play for. Leicester by 16
Sale v Bath
I fancy Sale to win this one for some reason, and the stats back it up – Bath hasn’t won away in the league since October. Sale by 4.
Gloucester v Exeter
You’d expect Exeter to get the win they need here, and a Bonus Point might just see them top the table, so it could be a good one to watch. Exeter by 13.
Wasps v Saracens
Sarries are resting the likes on Maro Itoje, Owen Farrell and both Vunipolas – granted they have a busy end to the season, but are they also thinking they’d rather lose this game and play Exeter away in the semis than win it and play Wasps at home? Wasps by 13
Northampton v Harlequins
This should be a good shootout for 6th place – Saints trail Quins by 3 points, so need to win by more than 7, or win and score 4 tries. Harlequins were impressive against Wasps last weekend in Nick Evans’ final home match, and this is his last ever match, so could rouse the same performance. Quins by 2.
Bristol v Newcastle
I’m backing Bristol to finish the season with a flourish, and show their intent for next year in the Championship. Bristol by 6.
Let me know how you see the weekend going.
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
More importantly, will Wasps win with a BP or not…..?
Can’t see Exeter not getting to BP then would go top.
Yes, I think they will. I think Sarries would rather go to Sandy Park than Coventry in the Semi-finals…
Are you suggesting that the Champions will not be playing to win?
They will of course play to win, but looking at the lineup, they’ve spotted that this is the only game in the next 4 weeks in which they can tolerate losing. Going in with that mindset is different to a win at all costs approach.
The chance of a home semi-final should still provides plenty of motivation, but it’s not their first-choice XV and Wasps will be too strong I think.
I actually thought Sarries would rest more players. They’ve only really dropped five or six players, and with the likes of Kruis, Rhodes, Wray, Burger, Brits, Koch, Wyles, Maitland and Lozowski I still think they could win. I guess the confidence is seeping into the fans as well as the players. Lol!! :-)
I don’t know, Hutch – I agree with Dazza that even with resting some players, they are going to seriously want to win this. They’ll back themselves against any opposition with any squad (so away at Wasps or Exeter in their mind is irrelevant) and they will also know that beating Wasps and Exeter beating Gloucester by any margin will put them into 2nd and a home semi. Why settle for an away semi when you have the added bonus of a home crowd etc?
I think the rotation is merely to make sure they do keep their best players safe for Clermont – it is a final after all, and Clermont did down Leinster, who thumped Wasps (home/away aside). Sarries squad is strong enough whatever the line-up. And pride alone is going to mean Wasps will have to earn their four tries – they’re not going to be handed over for the sake of semi-final strategy!
Sarries may be aware that ending third won’t hurt their chances, but they’re not going to be cherry-picking their opposition to suit that.
And let’s be frank, they also know Wasps have more to lose here…
I should probably mention at this point that I still expect a Wasps win – albeit narrow and without a try bonus point for either side.
Looking at the Sarries 23 for this final game, I think there is still enough there to get a result at Wasps. Wasps haven’t been as convincing or as clinical as they were earlier in the season. I certainly think it will be closer than 13 points.
I think Worcester will beat Leicester and Bath will beat Sale. I think the closing minutes of both of those games will be vital.
Newcastle will beat Bristol and gain a much needed bonus point as they are playing for European cup.
Bristol have nothing but pride to play for, which might mean that they won’t have much structure to their game with the idea being to entertain.
I think Newcastle will just have too much on the day. So I say Newcastle with a bonus point.
Agreed. I think that game could be a cracker