European Rugby Champions Cup 2015/2016: Round 3 Predictions

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The European Champions Cup returns this weekend – here’s how we see the action going down.

POOL 1

Having already lost at home to Saracens – and convincingly – Ulster’s European hopes hang by a thread. They need to win against Toulouse this weekend, or their campaign is certainly over. Frustratingly, they have been decimated by injuries, particularly in the pack where there is no Dan Tuohy or Iain Henderson in the engine room. Toulouse, meanwhile, have what must be one of the most physically intimidating packs in history: Johnstone, Maestri, Tekori and Picamoles are all giants, while Dusautoir and Camara are a fine loose forward duo. As badly as French teams do tend to travel, Toulouse just look too powerful and should overwhelm Ulster.

Elsewhere Saracens travel to Oyonnax looking to continue their unbelievable unbeaten start to the season. The French side punch above their weight, lacking star names but even making it into this competition given the strength of the Top 14 is an achievement in its own right. Rory Clegg and Soane Tonga’uiha will be familiar faces to Sarries fans. The visitors bring Owen Farrell back in for his first start since his Ravenhill heroics – Brad Barritt captains a side that has a distinctly English flavour to it and should be much too good for the plucky Frenchmen.

Ulster vs Toulouse: Toulouse by 5
Oyonnax vs Saracens: Saracens by 12

POOL 2

Exeter’s fine start to the season will face its biggest test yet in the form of Clermont Auvergne arriving at Sandy Park on Saturday. Unfortunately, they will have to do so without Henry Slade or Dave Ewers, both of whom were crocked in last weekend’s mammoth win over Wasps. That victory was built on a insatiable rolling maul and a pack that had the upper hand – this is unlikely to be the case against the French giants. Clermont are without Nick Abendanon, who has an injury, but can call upon French international Scott Spedding to join Dave Strettle and Noa Nakaitaci in an exciting back three. Had Slade and Ewers been available, Exeter would have had a great chance in this, and may even have been favourites. Without them, I can see Clermont just having the edge.

Elsewhere the Ospreys will look to continue their upturn in form, at home to Bordeaux. The Welsh side almost pulled off the comeback of the century in the Massif Central in round two, and another win here would set them in good stead to be on course to qualify. They have enough to defeat a Bordeaux side whose priorities likely lie elsewhere this year.

Exeter Chiefs vs Clermont Auvergne: Clermont by 3
Ospreys vs Bordeaux Begles: Ospreys by 12

POOL 3

After a shaky start to the season, Northampton have hit something of a stride with four wins in a row across all competitions. Their victory away at Bath last weekend was particularly impressive, but it was built upon a dominant scrum and a powerful pack getting its own way – something that is not likely to happen against a similarly sizeable Racing 92 unit in Paris. The visitors stick with JJ Hanrahan at fly-half, while Luther Burrell shifts to 13 to accommodate Tom Stephenson. Victor Matfield makes his first start, alongside Courtney Lawes. The headline news for Racing is that Dan Carter makes his debut at fly-half – he’s partnered by Mike Phillips. There is more Kiwi swagger in the form of Joe Rokocoko, Casey Laulala and Chris Masoe, and ultimately the hosts should be too strong.

The other game in Pool 3 is an all-PRO12 affair, with both Scarlets and Glasgow still looking for their first wins of the tournament. Glasgow have a severe World Cup hangover, with many of their Scotland stars yet to find form in their club jersey. Scarlets sit atop the PRO12, but have a severe injury crisis and this looks one game too far for them.

Racing 92 vs Northampton Saints: Racing by 7
Glasgow Warriors vs Scarlets: Glasgow by 9

POOL 4

Pool 4 sees two historic giants do battle in a true rugby amphitheatre, as Munster welcome Leicester to Thomond Park. Both have slipped some way from those glory days, but things are certainly looking rosier in the East Midlands under Aaron Mauger’s tutelage. Leicester’s ace in the hole so far has been Telusa Veainu – any loose kicking will be punished by the free-running fullback. Munster are having a tougher time of things, with losses at home to Connacht and away at Dragons in their last two games. They do, however, welcome back some important figures in Conor Murray and Francis Saili. Whether that is enough to get a win, however, is debatable. It will be fractious, it will be physical; it could well be a nail-biter. Going purely on form this season, you have to say that Leicester have the advantage.

The other game in this pool sees Stade Français travel to whipping boys Treviso. The Italians have shown shoots of revival in the PRO12, but are massive underdogs against the French giants who can name the likes of Sergio Parisse, Willem Alberts and Will Genia in their team. They may not travel well, but they will be too good for the Italian minnows.

Munster vs Leicester Tigers: Leicester by 3
Benetton Treviso vs Stade Français: Stade by 18

POOL 5

And so we come to the most interesting pool of them all. The headline fixture is Leinster’s trip to the South of France to take on Toulon, in a repeat of last year’s semi-final. The visitors face a massive uphill battle, although the way Wasps beat the champions in the last round will have piqued their interest. Make inroads early on, and the galacticos can begin to turn on each other. They name an exciting centre partnership of Luke Fitzgerald and Ben Te’o outside the familiar face of Johnny Sexton. The hosts have Habana, Bastareaud, Nonu and Mitchell in their back-line, with the strings being pilled by Matt Giteau. Then in the pack, Manoa, Gorgodze, Armitage and Vermeulen will do the damage. It is an utterly ridiculous line-up, and in front of their home fans, with some fine form behind them, they should put an end to Leinster’s European aspirations this season for good.

Finally there is an all-English affair at the Ricoh, where the wounded Wasps will look to continue their fine European form and attempt to forget their mauling at the hands of Exeter. And Bath will have noted that that was literally what it was – the Chiefs scored four tries from rolling mauls. The hosts recall Nathan Hughes, Joe Simpson and Ruaridh Jackson, which should sharpen an attack that was strangely blunted last weekend. Bath are in dire straights of their own; their team looks as thrilling as it was last season on paper, but for whatever reason it just hasn’t clicked yet. This should be a hugely entertaining game, and Wasps’ home advantage makes them favourites in my eyes.

Toulon vs Leinster: Toulon by 9
Wasps vs Bath Rugby: Wasps by 5

HosieHutch
Ulster vs ToulouseToulouse by 5Ulster by 2
Glasgow vs ScarletsGlasgow by 9Glasgow by 13
Racing vs NorthamptonRacing by 7Racing by 13
Treviso vs StadeStade by 18Stade by 10
Exeter vs ClermontClermont by 3Clermont by 2
Ospreys vs BordeauxOspreys by 12Ospreys by 23
Munster vs LeicesterLeicester by 3Munster by 2
Oyonnax vs SaracensSaracens by 12Saracens by 28
Toulon vs LeinsterToulon by 9Toulon by 6
Wasps vs BathWasps by 5Wasps by 8

How do you see the weekend going? Leave your predictions below!

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

2 thoughts on “European Rugby Champions Cup 2015/2016: Round 3 Predictions

  1. The Chiefs really made Sandy Park rock this afternoon. With Eddie Jones watching in the stands surely Jack Nowell must be a shoe in for the six nations.

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