Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 5 Predictions

Connacht vs Cardiff Blues

Connacht’s winning streak was cut short last weekend at Scotstoun. They were unlucky at times against Glasgow and if not for that charge down on Darragh Leader’s clearance kick late in the first half, giving Glasgow a 10 point cushion, they might have hung on in there longer and squeezed out an unlikely upset. They’ll be tougher to beat at home though and given how well they’ve been playing this season, the fact that the Blues have a good record in Galway won’t worry them in the slightest. Cardiff themselves were unlucky not to come away with an upset of their own last weekend in Dublin. They staged a remarkable fight back to go from 27-9 down to within four points against the defending champions on their home ground. They’ll go to Galway with history on their side, arguably improving form (despite still being only one from four this season), and are certainly capable of getting their season back on track here. There’s something about the mood in the Connacht camp at the moment though. It’s a form of confidence I’ve not seen there in a long time. I think that’ll see them through.

Prediction: Connacht by 6

Ulster vs Edinburgh

Ok, well the less said about last weekend’s game in Italy the better as far as Ulster fans are concerned. It’s true that having a player sent off so early make the task much more difficult for the remaining 14 but that loss must still be a disappointing result for them. It might cost them dearly later on in the season. It’s bad luck for Edinburgh that they have to face them next. Edinburgh (along with Zebre and Ospreys!) threw my predictions into disarray last weekend with their late try in the last ten minutes of the game to clinch a draw against the Scarlets. They may have surprised me with a win over Munster in Round 1 but I think it would be really unlikely for them to get a win in Belfast, especially given the mood the Ulster camp must be in.

Prediction: Ulster by 16

Zebre vs Ospreys

I hope Zebre celebrated long into the night after their big win over Ulster. That will go down as a huge scalp for the club. They face a table-topping Ospreys side this weekend through, fresh from their well-deserved win over Munster last weekend. Ospreys lost this fixture last year though and therefore will not be taking their opponents lightly. Truth be told, Zebre are getting tougher to beat at home, having lost only one of their last six fixtures at the Stadio XXV Aprile. Ospreys are also sporting an injury list as long as my arm and will be missing several key players like Tipuric and Walker. Realistically though, looking at where both sides are in the table at the moment, you’d have to fancy the visitors here – although that’s exactly the logic I used in the ‘Zebre –Ulster’ game last weekend and look where that got me!

Prediction: Ospreys by 10

Leinster vs Munster

Rightly or wrongly this game is often touted as the big Irish interprovincial fixture. Clearly that is based more on the long-standing rivalry between these sides rather than recent form or history. In recent times it’s the rivalry between Leinster and Ulster that has been threatening to eclipse this fixture in the calendar and justifiably so. Regardless, this is a big game for each side as they’ve both been struggling to find the form we know they are capable of so far this season. Munster seem adrift; evidently the fall-out from ‘email-gate’ hasn’t galvanised the squad like one would have hoped. Leinster haven’t been setting the world alight either however, they seriously took their foot off the pedal last weekend against the Blues and it might have cost them. The fact remains that Leinster are unbeaten at home after two games this season, whereas Munster’s fortress Thomond is anything but. It’s been a long time since Munster have beaten Leinster in Dublin and even longer at this particular venue. Given their current form, it could be a humbling encounter but I’m hoping that Munster will rise to the challenge even if I don’t seem them winning.

Prediction: Leinster by 9

Benetton Treviso vs Glasgow Warriors

It seems to me that the second the new European qualification criteria for the PRO12 came into effect that suddenly Treviso have struggled to be the top Italian side. Beforehand, they were undoubtedly the better of the two, now it’s not quite so cut and dried. They currently languish at the bottom of the table having played four, lost four. That streak is unlikely to end this weekend with the as yet undefeated Glasgow Warriors rolling into town. With no teams named this far out I’m forced to look at form and history both of which favour the visitors. Glasgow weren’t the finished article last weekend against Connacht though, and let in a few soft tries, but I’m sure Gregor Townsend has focused on that during the week. All signs point to another win for the men from the Clyde.

Prediction: Glasgow by 14

Llanelli Scarlets vs Newport Gwent Dragons

Once again Scarlets let a team claw back and get the draw last weekend. They are a better side at the moment than their league position shows and they need to find a way to finish teams off and close games out. They have home advantage against the Dragons this weekend and have an impressive record against their fellow Welshmen. Factor in the Dragons’ poor form recently (one win from four) and poor away form in general and you’d be hard pressed to see how the visitors could cause an upset here.

Prediction: Scarlets by 13

How do you see the weekend playing out?

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images