It’s still early days, but with the announcement that Warren Gatland will once again take charge of the British & Irish Lions, it starts to focus everyone’s mind on next year’s tour.

With a full season of rugby to go including Autumn Internationals and a Six Nations cycle, it is far too early to say who is likely to be on that plane but it’s not too early to discuss some of the challenges the selectors need to overcome when choosing the squad.

CHALLENGE 1: SQUAD SIZE

How many players to take is always difficult to balance: on one hand you need to have enough players in the squad to keep your team fresh with good competition for places, but on the other hand you don’t want any passengers who are not getting any game time.

History
2013: 37 players + 8 injury call ups
2009: 37 players + 4 injury call ups
2005: 44 players + 5 injury call ups

Gatland says
“The important thing is to try and get things right off the field. If I go on tour and know I’m going to start in one of the first three games, I feel like I’m in the shop window. There are a lot of things we learned in the past. We need to find the right balance to have enough players to cover for injury. We also need to make sure the squad isn’t too big where there are players who don’t really feel part of it.

My suggestion
With some players arriving late on tour having been involved in domestic finals, and the packed tour schedule with strong opposition throughout, there’s an argument for Gatland to take two full matchday squads – I would take a 45-man squad to New Zealand. Clive Woodward was criticised for doing just that in 2005, but in this case, there should still be enough opportunity for every player to be involved in 2 or 3 games before the tests start, and given the certainty of injuries, late call-ups for replacements may not always be necessary.

CHALLENGE 2: POSITIONAL BALANCE

Conventional wisdom tells us that a with a 5/3 bench you are looking for about 55% of your squad to be forwards – with a 45-man squad that means a 25/20 split. Using the 2 full squads methodology you would be looking at 8 props, 4 Hookers, 6 Locks, 8 Backrow, 4 Scrum Halves, 4 Fly Halves, 4 Centres, 4 Wings, 2 Fullbacks and 2 Utility Backs which is a 26/19 split. Personally I prefer to have a more forwards in my squad as it is attritional up front so you need to rotate more.

History

Gatland says
“It’s about getting the balance, it’s a long way to go and you need to be able to guard against potential injuries.”

My suggestion

Given the strength in depth and versatility of the players available at Lock and No.8 I have only chosen 5 specialist flankers. I have also opted to select an additional winger as the potential candidates are versatile enough to cover multiple positions, however the additional utility back could also have been named in the centres or at fullback

CHALLENGE 3: BALANCE OF NATIONALITIES

Be it Woodward’s side dominated by English, Gatland’s Welsh bias in Australia or fans’ anger over a token scot in the squad, nothing has caused more ire and debate amongst Lions fans than the split of nationalities of the squad. This tour has the potential to quiet the fans, and with players from all four nations putting their hands up for selection the final tallies could be closer than they have ever been before.

History

Gatland says
“It’s easier to select players who are coming in from a winning environment with a lot of confidence. It’s the same when you are picking captains.”

“If you picked the squad now, there would be a large number of Englishmen.”

My suggestion

Based on recent form you would expect to pick slightly more English players, but that could all change by the end of the 6 nations. The key aspect is to tear down the national walls and rivalries and get everyone to leave their egos at the door. In reality, the players will be selected regardless of nationalities, but I believe having an even blend will improve the Lions’ chances.

CHALLENGE 4: EXPERIENCE v FORM

As you would expect with a squad comprised of the best of four nations, the tourists are normally mainly comprised of very experienced International players. Although there have been a few bolters in the past, it is very rare to find a player with fewer than 5 caps in the squad and I have not found anyone who has leapt straight into a Lions squad without first donning their national colours (although Christian Wade came close).

History

I could only find data on the last two tours.

Sir Ian McGeechan clearly favoured experience in 2009, although Gatland included more players that had been on previous Lions tours in his 2013 party.

Gatland says
“The players that have been on previous tours and have some experience, that’s definitely going to count.”

“Experience does count, but you have got to be playing well.”

My suggestion
The beauty of the Lions for me is that it is never about building for the future, it is about selecting the best players on form to go and do a job. You need a mix of players who have the experience to lead and those form players picked specifically to face the challenge of the All Blacks.

CHALLENGE 4: EXPERIENCE v YOUTH

While experience is massively important it is no good having players in the twilight of their career just going through the motions. From young players just breaking through, to grizzled veterans looking stamp their legacy, what you need is players with a point to prove who are going to give their all to the task and commit 100% to the Lions.

History

Gatland says
“Apart from obvious names, there will be quite a few others come into consideration by the end of the season.”

My suggestion
There have been some exciting young players break through to their national squads in the last season and there may be more come next summer with their hands held high, so I would expect the average age of this Lions squad to be one of the lowest we have seen.

What are your thoughts? What do you think makes for the perfect Lions squad?

By @leon_entwistle