South Africa v New Zealand
Emirates Airlines Park, Johannesburg
Saturday 25 July 17.05 local, 16.05 BST
A combination of injury and tactics means that New Zealand and Steve Hansen have a chance this week to show off the absurd depth of their squad. With just 3 games left before the Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks tweak the recipe, leaving Dan Carter and Sonny Bill Williams out of their squad, opting to hand Lima Sopoaga his first cap, and inserting Conrad Smith in the centre. These changes should be seamless for New Zealand as Sopoaga and Aaron Smith, Highlanders teammates, will gel nicely and Conrad will feel comfortable next to his fellow Hurricane Ma’a Nonu in the centre. Up front, the addition of Dane Coles, Jerome Kaino and debutant James Broadhurst show the enviable wealth of talent that Steve Hansen has to pick from.
Having secured the win against Argentina, although perhaps not in the style they would have liked, New Zealand will look to improve again and show the world the 80-minute performance that we know they are capable of. If they choose to do this against South Africa, who are smarting from their last-second loss to Australia, it is difficult to imagine the game yielding anything but a New Zealand victory.
South Africa make a total of 8 changes to the 23 that faced up against Australia in Brisbane, the most notable being the inclusion of Heinrich Brussow for the first time since the 2011 World Cup. Brussow will man the blindside in a back row that South Africa may well highlight as a key to victory. New Zealand’s voracious loose forwards are some of the best in the world at the breakdown, but a unit of Brussow, Francois Louw and captain Schalk Burger can more than hold their own and perhaps neutralise the threat posed by McCaw et al.
South Africa lead Australia for the vast majority of last week’s game and yet were unable to hold off the Wallabies indefinitely, not helped by some difficulty in the scrum in the latter period of the match. A strong performance from the upstart centre partnership of Damian Allende and Jesse Kriel could neuter New Zealand’s wily Hurricanes midfield of Nonu and Conrad Smith, but ultimately if the Springbok pack wilts under the steely gaze of the All Blacks scrum, the visitors will surely come out on top.
Prediction: New Zealand by 9
Argentina v Australia
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
Saturday 25 July 19.40 local, 23.40 BST
This pair of fixtures gave us two upsets last year, with South Africa handing New Zealand a rare loss in Johannesburg and Argentina grinding out a win against Australia, and I would be very surprised if this weekend offers us quite the same fairytale results. Australia can definitely count themselves lucky to be carrying a win into Round 2, and will be missing Will Genia, Rob Horne and Matt Giteau through injury. Michael Cheika makes seven changes in preparation for the trip to Argentina. Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Matt Toomua and Joe Tomane are all included in the backs, and if New Zealand’s gameplan is to be trusted, this game will be won for Australia out wide. The All Blacks sliced Los Pumas apart with 15 clean breaks and if the Australian forwards can provide clean enough ball, it seems unlikely that the Wallabies would have too much trouble putting Kuridrani, Ashley-Cooper and Folau through holes.
Talk about a big ‘if’ though. Argentina can hold up their pack’s performance as the sole positive from Christchurch, with both their tries coming from lineouts, and Australia are far from a sure thing up front. Argentina will look to drip-feed ball to the backs, and if at all possible will dictate the tempo of proceedings with the ball safely in the hands of Creevy and Ayerza. Some consistent play from fly-half would do wonders for Argentina’s hopes as well, as Nicolas Sanchez’s spotty kicking performance heaped more pressure than was necessary on the South Americans.
Daniel Hourcade seems to have been focussing on this match with last week’s team selection, and Argentina’s pack has the potential to drag the Aussies into trench warfare, especially if their exemplary lineout work is continued on Saturday. However, Australia’s narrow victory over South Africa has put them in good spirits and the punchy backline that Cheika has selected will be enough to seal the deal for the Wallabies.
Prediction: Australia by 8
By Fraser Kay
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A good summation and probably on the ball!
Surprised that both teams aren’t named here. I don’t know the AB team yet.
Anyway, it’ll be tough for the ABs in SA as always, but in theory the ABs should be too strong v a SA with injuries affecting the latter’s midfield, 2nd & back rows.
However, Hansen must be confident if he’s giving guys like Sopoaga & Broadhurst a run out over there. Also, though, what better prep for these 2 as there’s no sub for game time, esp in Johannesburg.
Don’t think SA will kick so much ball aimless ball away v NZ as they did against Oz. They need to keep possession & use it effectively, because the ABs will likely do so.
ABs need to defend the maul better though.
A bit of a mug’s game predicting a result, not to mention a scoreline, but can’t disagree with the author’s opinion. We’ll see though.
Will Oz let another game slip v Argentina? Prob not, although they’ll need to win more breakdown ball, not kick it away & ran @ them in 2’s or 3’s rather than 1 up runners as v SA. They’ll also need to watch their ‘D’ & not fall off tackles as they did with Kriell last week.
Argentina seem to have improved their back play with quicker & slicker handling, but it was still ineffective v an AB blanket which suffocated them last Sat. They will likely do well @ set piece & will no doubt roll their maul around the Oz flank when they get a sniff of the latter’s tryline, so Oz better not give away penalties.
Oz by 5-7? Maybe.