Six Nations 2015: Scotland vs Italy Prediction

With both sides’ tenancy in the Six Nations basement stretching back over a decade, the fixture between Scotland and Italy carries a great significance and is usually high-pressure if not high octane. Relative to previous grinding kick-fests, last year’s contest was a classic, with Duncan Weir’s last minute drop goal snatching victory in a game which saw some commendable play from both sides.

The first rest weekend always provides an opportunity for supporters to indulge in idle discussion of the first two rounds, and much was made of Finn Russell’s challenge on the airborne Dan Biggar. Evidently, Russell took out Biggar, but it is difficult to see how the aerial contest can be sustained in future when a player who pulls out in the genuine interests of an opponent’s safety receives a two week ban.

Regardless, Russell’s ban stands and he misses the Italy match this weekend, inducing much speculation as to who would start at 10. The competing players will undoubtedly have spent the week more productively than supporters, except in the case of Italian prop Martin Castrogiovanni, who required fourteen stitches after suffering an attack to the nose by a friend’s pet dog. He consequently misses the match at Murrayfield.

Scotland

“Scotland A v Scotland B,” quipped the Vern Cotter Twitter parody during the 1872 Cup match at Scotstoun this winter. It was a fair comment. Glasgow players have never dominated the national side as they have under Cotter, who has selected 10 starting Warriors with a further two on a bench which, fittingly, features six Edinburgh players. Player by player, Cotter’s selection is absolutely justified, and the team also gains from greater cohesion and understanding, particularly in the backs. Against France and Wales, Scotland lacked the game management and mental edge to see them home. They should have no such impediments against the Italians.

With Russell suspended, Pete Horne comes in at fly half. Horne’s game time at 10 for Scotland has been limited during his six caps, although he did play there during an eventful summer tour of South Africa in 2013. Appearing on debut as a substitute against Samoa, it was not long before Alesana Tuilagi ran straight over him to score. He wasn’t the first and won’t be the last to succumb to such treatment, and starred in the next match against South Africa before sustaining a serious knee injury. This time around, Horne’s selection is a genuinely exciting one; a running, passing 10 whose natural game involves even less kicking than Russell’s.

Outside, Tommy Seymour’s return after injury is expected. Some might be more surprised by the selection on the other wing, where the committed but ageing Sean Lamont is preferred to Tim Visser. This too is a fair call based on contribution against Wales.

In the starting pack, Tim Swinson is a notable inclusion for the injured Richie Gray in a stocky second-row pairing, and also provides some punchy ball-carrying. Ryan Grant’s acquittal following his recent assault trial gives him an opportunity to stake a claim in the front row off the bench and push for the form that gained him Lions’ selection in 2013. Ben Toolis and Hamish Watson are exciting selections of players who have put the backbone into Edinburgh’s gritty resurgence. In short, this is tasty selection, more positive and dynamic for the changes made.

Italy

In sporadic bursts at Twickenham, Italy gave a passable impression of a talented attacking side, but they were incapable of sustaining the impetus in any meaningful manner. Moreover, the defence wilted both in the tight and wider channels. For Murrayfield, Italy make a full six changes. The loss of the experience of the unyielding Andrea Masi is a blow, but does give the uncapped Treviso centre Enrico Bacchin his first appearance at centre in a backline which also includes debutant Michele Visentin on the wing.

Kelly Haimona retains his place in the side and, after the likes of the pint-sized Luciano Orquera, is the latest in a rich lineage of novelty Italian fly-halves who have rarely strung together too many games in the jersey. At 17 stone, Haimona’s chunky stature has so far drawn more comment than his play. Significantly, he was guilty of missing three of his four attempts at goal against England as Italy slipped out of touching distance and then out of the game entirely. On the basis of performances so far, one might have thought Tommy Allan’s nimble subtleties were worth a go against the country he represented as an Under 20.

The Italian forward selection is typically obdurate. Simone Favaro replaces dropped veteran Mauro Bergamasco, who managed just seven tackles against England without making a metre with ball in hand. Zebre props Matias Aguero and Dario Chistolini, the latter familiar to Gloucester fans, come into the front row. The Scots will not relish playing against lock Josh Furno, whose committed running proved too much to handle in last year’s narrow defeat.

All Eyes On

Pete Horne’s call up is merited on the basis of his consistent excellence for Glasgow in the last three years, despite facing serious battles with injury. As a 10, he brings quick footwork and tidy distribution off both hands, as well as a reliable left-footed kicking game. As a 12, he understands when, how, and where centres want to receive the ball. Although his chances at fly half have been limited by Ruaridh Jackson, Duncan Weir, and latterly Finn Russell, Horne has serious credentials in the position. It was Horne who Gregor Townsend selected at 10 for the PRO12 semi-final against Leinster at the RDS in 2013, arguably the club’s biggest ever game at that time.

Italy, like Scotland, have struggled to find a cutting edge out wide in the last ten years. Luca Morisi scored two good tries against England at Twickenham, and along with the injured Michele Campagnaro, provides more evidence that Italy are beginning to produce midfielders with a mix of guile and pace. Morisi also has the considerable task of defending the outside channel against Mark Bennett and Stuart Hogg, Scotland’s most elusive attacking options.

Prediction

The re-laid Murrayfield is a fast track. Provided it doesn’t rain this Saturday, and provided Scotland retain the confident play which characterised defeats against France and Wales, there should only be one winner. The Italians will land a few shots, but it is difficult to see them binding up the game to such an extent that they can stifle the Scottish backline. They scored tries against England, but in a game whose competitive intensity was long gone. With home advantage, Scotland by 17.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)